Status Update on Developing Guidance for Travel Demand Modeling Office of Transportation Data and Analysis August 11, 2009 Mark Flinner, Traffic Forecast and Analysis Section

What is Guidance? Generally requires leadership or direction and involves procedures or standards More specifically, this guidance will serve as a resource when developing models or applying results Guidance is exercised in an analytical context (e.g. regional, sub-area, corridor, intersection, transit system, transit line, daily, peak period, peak hour, …) Ideally, should come with recommended tools and methods

Why Provide Guidance? ‘Variable’ methods are used today New data are coming: decennial census, American Community Survey, National Household Travel Survey, new local data, … Increasing number of questions need answers – some questions cannot be addressed now Share an understanding of how current and future models should be developed and used It’s important for government to build public trust and confidence

How will Guidance Happen? Evaluate other states’ forecasting contexts and responses Choose an appropriate level of involvement Create working relationships that enhance coordination opportunities Involve federal, state, county, MPO and private interests Allow flexibility to design models that are suited to a specific area’s planning needs

Accomplishments to-date Other guidelines are being reviewed MN specific guidance outline ‘in-process’ Discussion of uncertainty and scenarios were moved to the forefront of our discussion Traffic forecasting guidance is being enhanced to include process flows Directional one minute increment traffic data being collected at screenlines and cutlines anticipating the need for such data during the next 4 years

Guidance Outline Topics include Designing models to achieve stated goals Identifying current and forecast data needs Data collection, application and calibration Validation and review Model acceptance by stakeholders Model software and documentation Using model outputs in forecasts Building and evaluating scenarios Using outputs as inputs to microsimulation When to use advanced modeling techniques

Plans for the future MPOs - determine future forecasting, policy analysis and modeling needs Invite TDMCC and others to collaborate Continue to draft guidance and assess the potential for advanced modeling tools (land- use, tour-based, activity-based, …) Continue to collect detailed traffic data to support model calibration Monitor trends, new data sources, politics (see H.R 2454 passed 6/26/09 - cap and trade, incentives for plug-in, etc.)

Other states’ guidelines - Examples Virginia – Comprehensive and nicely detailed Florida – highly structured, strong multi-agency leadership Wisconsin – MPO Modeling Standards Guide and N Carolina – and Oregon – S tate backed with strong MPO input Iowa – Ohio – Appendix C - When to use Models KY – S mall area, MPO and statewide -

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