Measuring Prospective Benefits for FE R&D Programs Most estimation of past Fossil Energy (FE) R&D benefits has focused on two broad program categories: –Fossil Fuel Conversion: conversion of coal and gas to electricity and other fuels –Fossil Energy Resources: domestic oil and gas supply The nature of these programs and their benefits are very different, which has led to much different approaches for calculating future benefits.

Assessment Aproach Most analyses have been “market-oriented”, based on projecting future deployment and estimating benefits associated with quantity deployed. No analysis to date of the “option value” of R&D, although this could have advantages for addressing future technologies.

Greenhouse Gas Reductions Power plant efficiency increases about 50% over today’s deployed plants Sequestration is available >2015 to greatly reduce carbon emissions, if needed Million Metric Tons per Year Nat. Gas- Reduction from BAU Coal- Reduction from BAU Coal/AdvancedOil Natural Gas/Adv. Carbon Emissions From Electric Generators Sequestration begins in 2015 on new units

Meyers’s Law It is a simple task to make things complex, but a complex task to make them simple.

TORIS Oil Model