Feed Outlook Jim Dunn Ag Economist Pennsylvania State University

Sources of Information USDA /homepage.dohttp://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda /homepage.do /viewTaxonomy.do?taxonomyID=3http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda /viewTaxonomy.do?taxonomyID=3 /viewTaxonomy.do?taxonomyID=25http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda /viewTaxonomy.do?taxonomyID=25 /viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1273

What these are called USDA Economics, Statistics and Market Information System (ESMIS) Field Crops Outlooks, Yearbooks, and Estimates Feed Outlook

Other useful links Oil Crops Outlook Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook Milk Production Feed grains database Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: Tables

Issues for Feed Economy Bio-Fuel Large 2014 & 2015 crops Falling land prices Expensive dollar Chinese economy Russian Embargo Weather

Bio-Fuel Ethanol Bio-diesel Both ethanol & bio-diesel subsidies political issue this year Does it make sense to use food for fuel?

Ethanol Demand falling because of better fuel economy Not the issue it was in 2008 Smaller portion of corn crop Talk of dropping mandate Industry wants it to increase World opposition to fuel from food building

Corn Notes Chinese economy slumping China trying to increase hog production South American crop should be okay

Corn Supply Bil. Bu. YearBeg stocksProductionSupply 2009/ / / / / / Source: USDA

Corn Usage bil. bu Source: USDA YearFeedFoodFuelExportsTotal 2009/ / / / / /

Corn Usage Crop Feed57.8%36.7%38.7%39.1% Food12.8%10.8%9.9%10.1% Exports17.1%14.2% 12.5% Ethanol12.4%38.5%37.9%38.3%

Other mostly Russia and Ukraine

Corn Futures Price (CBOT) Market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).Access to this website and use of this market data is subject to the following: (a) Market data is for the recipients own personal use and may not be redistributed without permission of CME, which may depend on execution of an agreement and payment of the applicable fee; (b) CME and its licensors reserve all Intellectual Property Rights to market data; (c) CME and TradingCharts disclaims all liability for market data and use thereof, and any and all losses, damages or claims arising from use of market data; (d) CME and TradingCharts may suspend or terminate receipt of market data by any party if CME has reason to believe market data is being misused or misrepresented. It is also a condition of access to this website that you agree to not copy, disseminate, capture, reverse engineer or otherwise use information provided on this site for any other purpose except for the direct display in Internet browser of the end user only, and only in the format provided. These pages © TradingCharts.com, Inc.

Soybean Notes South American crop is huge – up 23% from last year

Soybean Supply mil.bu. YearCarry-inProductionTotal

Soybean Usage YearCrushExportsSeedTotal

Soybean Carryout & Price YearCarryout mil. bu. PriceDays Use of carryout $ $ $ $ $ $

Soybean Futures

Corn futures prices 2/1/16 MonthPrice (cts/bu.) March May July Sept Dec 16391

China Meat consumption grew nearly ten-fold to 71 million metric tons since 1975 Just announced it is scaling back its annual grain production targets to put a greater emphasis on quality rather than quantity Big effect on imports of feed and animal products – already the big player Chinese per capita meat consumption has doubled since 1992 to 52.5 kilograms (114 lbs) US about 211 lbs.

Soybean futures prices 2/1/16 MonthPrice (cts/bu.) March May July Sept Nov 16891

Cattle Market Drought in High Plains continues to hurt cow-calf herd. Few animals in pipeline Lowest January 1 inventory of cattle and calves since 1951 Profitability improved but supply response is very slow Prices high throughout 2015 In November, average retail choice-beef prices were a near record $6.31/lb. – demand lower

Hog notes Industry booming The new chicken Porcine epidemic diarrhea seems to be solved

Poultry Notes Eggs and Broilers cheapest form of protein Margins better Exports important and weakness in world economy affects price

Concluding Questions Lower feed prices helped animal agriculture Will feed prices stay low? Will we really keep cutting per capita meat consumption?