Unclassified R 1 Terrorism: A Threat Assessment John Parachini June 26, 2003

Unclassified R 2 Three Enduring Aspects of Combating Terrorism Terrorism is a perennial, ceaseless struggle Enmity towards the U.S. is unlikely to diminish U.S. will remain vulnerable It is important to prioritize protection activities according to both threat and vulnerabilities.

Unclassified R 3 New Trends Mass Casualty Terrorism Religiously Motivated Violence Inexorable Diffusion of Technology

Unclassified R 4 Anti-US Mass Casualty Incidents Source: Report of the Accountability Review Boards, Bombings of the U.S. Embassies in Nairobi, Kenya, and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, August 7, 1998

Unclassified R 5 Inexorable Spread of Technology

Unclassified R 6 Tactically, Terrorists Mostly Use Explosives to Conduct Their Attacks Weapons used in Terrorist Attacks: 1 April 2001 – 1 April 2002

Unclassified R 7 Analysis of Terrorism Threat Capabilities Motivations Vulnerabilities Context

Unclassified R 8 Two Factors Affect Terrorists’ Choice of Targets Accessibility –Seizing opportunities to attack –Exploiting vulnerabilities for desired ends Shock-value – Destruction of symbolic buildings, institutions, or sites – Attacks that cause large amounts of casualties

Unclassified R 9 Terrorist System Weapons Smugglers Importance to the Terrorist Enterprise State Sponsors Foot Soldiers Talent Spotters Leaders Financiers State Enablers Family Members Possible to Influence

Unclassified R 10 A=Active P=Passive SanctuaryPolitical Support Train.FinanceArmsIntelLogisticsJoint Ops. State/Insurgency Group AAAAAAAA State/Terrorist Cut-out AAAAAAA State/Terrorist Political Goals PAAAPAP APAP AAPAP Weak State/Strong Terrorist Group APPPAPAP AP Key Types of State Support

Unclassified R 11 Examples of State Support for Terrorism SanctuaryAAPAAAAAPAAA Political SupportAAPAAAPAPAAP TrainingPAA?A?A FinancingPAPAAA?APPAP Documentation????A???A WeaponsAPAA?PA?AP Intelligence?A??A? LogisticsP?A?A?AAP Joint Operations?AAA Afghanistan (Taliban) Cuba* Greece Iran* Iraq* Libya* North Korea* Pakistan (prior to 911) Saudi Arabia Sudan* Syria* Venezuela A = Active P = Passive * = Designated State Sponsor

Unclassified R 12 Middle East States Seeking WMD and the Terrorist Groups They Support Al Aqsa Martyr Brigade Iran Iraq Syria Libya Sudan Hezbollah Hamas PIJ PFLP-GC PFLP ANO PLF Nuclear Biological Chemical Nuclear Biological Chemical Biological Chemical Biological Chemical MEK al-Gama’a al –Islamiyya Islamic Jihad ALF PKK Al Qaeda

Unclassified R Groups That Target Within Their Area of Operations Are Also Anti-U.S. Kill 50 People Anti-US Sentiment Focus on U.S. Conduct an Attack Al-Qaeda Hizballah LTTE FARC SL ASG HAMAS Kill 150+ Coordinate multiple attacks Strike guarded target Attack unguarded foreign nationals RIRA PIJ GIA N17RO IMU LeT ETA AUC Kach DHKP/C GSPC Anti-U.S. Rhetoric ELN IG MaoistsMILF

Unclassified R 14 Terrorist Groups and Unconventional Weapons CRCRB RIRA ETA MILF AUC IMU N17RO SL ASG Kach Al Qaeda Chechen Rebels CCRBN AUM FARC (?) HAMAS (?) DHKP/C (?) PKK (?) BKI LTTE Hizbollah GSPC GIA High Low Danger Sophistication of Unconventional Weapons PIJ

Unclassified R 15 Al-Qaeda Motivations Launch an Islamic revolution Perception that U.S.props up corrupt Arab regimes that oppress Muslims peoples Attack U.S. to avenge sense of religious, economic, and political grievance Inflicting large number of U.S. casualties will cause it to leave the Middle East and lessen support for Israel Struggle against the U.S., Israel, and the West affirms personal identity of al-Qaeda terrorists

Unclassified R 16 Al-Qaeda CBRN Threat We have the weapons [nuclear and chemical] as deterrent.”

Unclassified R 17 Documents from Al-Qaeda Sites in Afghanistan Reveal extensive interest in WMD Basic information from open sources Little evidence of progress towards significant acquisition or weaponization

Unclassified R 18 Ahmed Ressam and the CNN Tapes Describes training on how to release cyanide gas into buildings

Unclassified R 19 Planting Dangerous Ideas “... we only became aware of them [biological weapons] when the enemy drew our attention to them by repeatedly expressing concern that they can be produced simply.” Memo on computer disk allegedly written by Al Zawari April 1999.

Unclassified R 20 Image Found in Al Qaeda Safe House Al-Qaeda took note of U.S. official fears Tension between prudent preparedness and communicating our vulnerabilities Source: ABCnews.com

Unclassified R 21 Another View of New Trends CBRN Weapons Capabilities Interest in CBRN Mass Casualty Violence Tactical Fanatic Violence

Unclassified R 22 Dangers in the Future Al Qaeda sleeper cells? New grouping of terrorists trained in Al Qaeda camps? Others struggling against modernity? Strong terrorists operating in weak and beholden states?