EILS Discussion February WMS

Charge to WMS from PRS The benefit. The cost based on the EILS PRRs. Changes in Market since April 17, 2006

EILS Benefit EILS is to be used as the last step before firm load shed Firm load shed historically has occurred at a rate of 1 event every 15 years Assume that the firm load shed prevented would be 1000MW (the maximum size of the EILS program) Assume that the value of lost load is $6,000/MWh (slightly under the DOE value calculated for the Northeast blackout) Assume that an event lasts approximate 4 hours Assume that EILS can be used in ALL firm load shed events Assume that the performance of EILS is quick enough to prevent ERCOT from requiring firm load shed as well

Calculation The value provided by EILS is the avoided cost of the outage prevented: Value = Risk of outage * cost of outage = (1 event/15 yr) * ($6000/MWh * 1000MW * 4 hr) = $1.6M/yr

Additional Benefit May help avoid the ERCOT SHEDS FIRM LOAD headline** This is a real objective of the program. How do we put a value on it? ** ROS does not seem to think it will help. [ROS motion] ROS does not believe that EILS program as it has been defined in PRR705 is an effective reliability tool, and suggests that other tools that are more effective, or revisions to PRR705 that would make it effective, can be developed with further study as has been tasked for ROS to do. Discussed But not included In WMS motions

Cost of the EILS PRRs To ERCOT 702: Assuming complexities removed, potentially $50K- $100K; otherwise, will require capital project for settlement changes. 703: Assuming complexities removed, potentially $50K- $100K; otherwise, will require capital project for operational changes. 704: Assuming complexities removed, potentially $50K- $100K; otherwise, will require capital project for settlement changes. 705: $50K-$100K under O&M budgets of affected departments.

Cost of the EILS PRRs To Consumers Comments filed on PRR 702 include a discussion of a $43.8 M Cap PRR 705 has a $20M Cap

Changes in Market since April 17, 2006 Forecasting Model refinements Terminating Modified Competitive Solution Method and Shame Cap Terminating CSC congestion constraint on BES MCPE Revised EECP and Alert process and procedures Raised offer cap More effective use of RPRS tool Load participation Enhanced Non-Spin procurement procedures Passed PRR 701, stranded capacity

Action of the WMS Benefit of EILS Larry Gurley moved that the benefit be defined by the calculation as described in slide number 4 of the presentation, with the enumerated assumptions. Clayton Greer seconded the motion. The motion carried on a roll call vote, with five opposed and four abstaining.

Action of the WMS Costs of EILS Larry Gurley moved that the cost of the EILS PRR be defined at $100,000 (or less) for cost of implementation, with a $20 million annual cap ($17 million for the first year), with many unquantifiable costs associated with market inefficiencies. Clayton Greer seconded the motion. The motion carried on voice vote, with four opposed and one abstention (Investor Owned Utility segment.)

Action of the WMS Changes in the Market Since the April 17, 2006 Event Larry Gurley moved to accept the changes listed on slide number 8 of the presentation, and to add more effective use of the RPRS tool, including load participation, enhanced non-spin procurement procedures, passage of PRR 701, and elimination of MCSM and the shame cap. Clayton Greer seconded the motion. The motion carried on voice vote with one abstention (Municipal segment.)