Decision Support Services A Vision Rusty Billingsley Chief, Science and Technology Services NWS Southern Region Headquarters

Decision Support Services What is this about? NWS Future Direction - Improving forecaster-provided interpretive services for decision makers (Jack Hayes, NWS Director 09/25/2008) “Better decisions for America by improving forecaster-provided interpretive services for decision makers” (All hands meeting, 12/08)

Decision Support Services “All the Buzz” It’s everywhere… NWS 2010 Draft Strategic Plan Draft Science Vision and Roadmap National decision support team “Why?” and “How?” Teams Workshops, conferences, etc. Yet the NWS is struggling still to define it…

Decision Support Services My take and disclaimer

Decision Support Services The Simple Answer – NWS is Decision Support The mission has not changed…the environment in which we deliver our mission has. How? Explosion of (instantly available) information Our reach has been extended (i.e., the new collaborative world) 9-11 Rapid technological advances The value of our science has improved Demographics Yet we are still all about life and property…public safety

Decision Support Services NWS has always been “Decision Support” My arrival in the NWS

Decision Support Services 1980 in the NWS My arrival in the NWS Produced products and shipped them out

Decision Support Services 1990s in the NWS “The Modernization” Produced products and shipped them out

Decision Support Services NWS in the 2000s – A New Operating Environment

Decision Support Services NWS is Decision Support The mission has not changed…the environment in which we deliver our mission has. How? Explosion of (instantly available) information Our reach has been extended (i.e., the new collaborative world) 9-11 Rapid technological advances The value of our science has improved Demographics Yet we are still all about life and property…public safety

Decision Support Services Explosion of information Need to look no further than the Web

Decision Support Services Explosion of information The Fort Worth Forecast

Decision Support Services Explosion of information We contribute our share

Decision Support Services “I heard from the commander at the site, that when he has a critical decision to make, he doesn't want to be looking at a laptop,” Hayes said. “He wants to be looking eyeball to eyeball at somebody who really understands what the models are saying and really understands how that applies to his situation.” San Diego Union Tribune October 2007 Srn Ca fires …Jack Hayes “Increases the Need for Interpretation” On-site, at the fire…

Decision Support Services “I think the weather briefing is the best thing since the spotter activation information. We use the briefing as a tool to prepare elected officials, law enforcement, fire departments, and EMS for the upcoming weather. We are able to evaluate the situation and resources we have to commit. By having the briefing we are far better prepared than in the past. Every bit of information we have in advance allows the management team to better perform the challenges ahead.” Robert Barrett, Gaines County Emergency Management and LEPC Seminole, TX Virtual briefing from the forecast office… “Increases the Need for Interpretation”

Decision Support Services Legacy NWS Business Info Forecaster Product Extend our reach with new technologies

Decision Support Services Extend our reach with new technologies Info Forecaster Services Web Briefing Recorded Briefing Live Virtual Briefing IC Center On-site IC Incident On-site The New NWS

Decision Support Services The “reach” is rapidly becoming two- way, interactive, and more personal Extend our reach with new technologies

Decision Support Services 9-11, DHS, and ICS

Decision Support Services Just look at video games My Youth My Son Rapid Technological Advances

SR Decision Support Program Rapid Technological Advances

Decision Support Services The value of our science has improved

Decision Support Services Coastal Population Wildland Urban Interface Demographics - Population at Risk

Decision Support Services NWS is Decision Support The mission has not changed…the environment in which we deliver our mission has. How? Explosion of (instantly available) information Our reach has been extended (i.e., the new collaborative world) 9-11 Rapid technological advances The value of our science has improved Demographics Yet we are still all about life and property…public safety

Decision Support Services So these folks are doing decision support NWS = decision support

Decision Support Services Severe Weather Operations - our bread and butter! But so are these folks! NWS = decision support

Decision Support Services Explosion of (instantly available) information Acceptance of the new interpretative role of the forecaster Enhance our expertise (e.g., we need to be the best) Our reach has been extended (the collaborative world) Take advantage of this Train and recruit necessary new skill sets Talk to our core partners about DSS 9-11 Understand the environment in which many of our core partners operate Use ICS ourselves where applicable Train the way our partners do and train with them Rapid technological advances Increase our productivity (e.g., much smarter systems) Provide/promote a two-way collaborative environment The value of our science has improved Continue to heavily invest in improvements Population at risk Utilize social and decision sciences to understand the risks and the impacts of decision s We Have Challenges!

SR Decision Support Program A First Step A (grassroots) effort to provide a spectrum of interpretative decision support services for core partners by Southern Region field offices

SR Decision Support Program Future of NWS will be focused on supporting high impact events where weather is a factor. NWS will provide decision support services to core partners with a similar mission. What We Believe

SR Decision Support Program We are trying a host of things in Southern Region… We are here for you! Graphicasts – what you need to know about an upcoming high impact weather in a picture or two

SR Decision Support Program We are trying a host of things in Southern Region… We are here for you! Multimedia Briefings and Webinars – short and to the point information about upcoming high impact weather

SR Decision Support Program We are trying a host of things in Southern Region… We are here for you! On-site support – Emergency Response Meteorologists (ERMets) ready to respond when core partners require expertise at the EOC or at an incident

SR Decision Support Program We are trying a host of things in Southern Region… We are here for you! Decision Support Web pages – one-stop shop for emergency management and first responders for weather- related situational awareness

Decision Support Services More Challenges $$ Schedules, shifts, human resource issues Backroom operations support (science, systems, etc) On-site support resources (travel, per diem funding, reimbursement) Skill sets, abilities of employees Pace of science, tech Partnerships, relationships, collaborative environments IT Security Too much demand Ourselves!

Decision Support Services Take Aways Decision Support Services is just an evolution of our basic mission (the environment has changed!) Southern Region is committed to supporting core partners (emergency managers, first responders, etc.) with high impact weather information We have many challenges to get to where we need to be (and to keep up) We are very interested in hearing (and learning) from you!