The Riksbank’s forecasting performance Deputy Governor Svante Öberg.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

MPU 2010: Figure 01. Repo rate with uncertainty bands Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. The uncertainty bands for the repo.

Advertisements

The mortgage market from a Riksbank perspective Bank meeting 2004 Deputy Governor Lars Nyberg.

Figure 1.GDP and an example of potential GDP , SEK million Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank.

Weak international public finances and Swedish monetary policy Deputy Governor Karolina Ekholm.

Monetary Policy Update April Lower repo rate necessary to subdue the fall in production and employment and to attain the inflation target of two.

GDP growth and resource utilisation Saltsjöbaden 6 October 2011 First Deputy Governor Svante Öberg.

The current economic situation Jönköping March 2009 Deputy Governor Svante Öberg.

The Economy. Constant-price GDP and Quarterly % Change Source: Office for National Statistics.

Speech at the Swedish Economics Association 22 February 2005.

Governor Stefan Ingves The Swedish Economy and Monetary Policy NBP Warsaw 24 May 2012.

Monetary Policy Update December Repo rate cut to 2 per cent Repo rate expected to remain at same level during 2009 A large interest rate cut is.

Public finances and monetary policy First Deputy Governor Svante Öberg SACO 26 April 2010.

Riksbank Governor Stefan Ingves Introduction on monetary policy Riksdag Committee on Finance 23 February 2012.

Monetary Policy Report July Unease in Europe casts a shadow over the Swedish economy.

Material for assessing monetary policy

The economic situation KOMMEK August Deputy Governor Svante Öberg.

Monetary Policy Update September Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bands Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. The uncertainty.

MPU April Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bands Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. The uncertainty interval does not take.

MPU September Figures Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bands Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. The uncertainty.

PPR 2008: Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bonds Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank.

MPR October Figure 1.1. Repo rate Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

MPR 2009 February Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bands Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank.

Monetary Policy Update April Lower repo rate necessary to subdue the fall in production and employment and to attain the inflation target of two.

Business Region Göteborg. GDP growth of Sweden in percent up until the second quarter Change compared to the same quarter previous year Source:

MPR 2008: Repo rate with uncertainty bands Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank.

Monetary Policy Update April Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bands Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. The uncertainty.

1. Inflation and growth Annual percentage change Source: Statistics Sweden.

Swedish experiences of monetary policy with an inflation target Governor Stefan Ingves.

Material for assessing monetary policy Figure Difference between interbank rates and government bond rates (TED spread) Basis points Sources:

MPR 2008: Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bands Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank.

1a. Different inflation measures Note. 12-month changes in per cent. Inflation measures computed according to Statistics Sweden’s new method. Sources:

Material for assessing monetary policy Figure 2.1. Commodity prices Index 2005 = 100, USD and USD per barrel Sources: The Economist and Intercontinental.

MPR February Figure 1.1. Repo rate Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. The uncertainty band does not take into account the.

My view of monetary policy Handelsbanken, March 18 th 2011 First Deputy Governor Svante Öberg.

Monetary Policy Report October The recovery will take time.

1. Inflation Annual percentage change in CPI (3-month moving average) Source: OECD GermanySweden.

Governor Stefan Ingves Introduction on monetary policy Riksdag Committee on Finance 3 March 2011.

Material for assessing monetary policy February 2008.

Monetary Policy Report October Low repo rate stimulates the Swedish economy.

Monetary Policy Report July Deep economic downturn Repo rate cut to 0.25 per cent Low repo rate over a long time Inflation close to target Signs.

Monetary Policy Update 2008:2. Repo rate raised to 4.75 per cent Repo rate will remain at same level during the year It may be necessary to reduce the.

Monetary policy report July Swedish economy developing strongly.

Monetary Policy Update 2008:1 23 April Repo rate held unchanged at 4.25 per cent. The repo rate is expected to remain unchanged during the remainder.

MPU 2011 April 20 April Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bands Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. The uncertainty bands.

Main message The rapid increase in productivity is the most important explanation for the low inflation in recent years. But productivity will increase.

Monetary Policy Report 2008:1

Barbro Wickman-Parak, 3 October 2007

The current economic situation Swedbank

Potential GDP, resource utilisation and monetary policy Grand Hotel, Saltsjöbaden 7 October 2010 First Deputy Governor of the Riksbank Svante Öberg.

Monetary Policy Report February 2011

Monetary Policy Report February 2012

Monetary Policy Report July 2011

Monetary Policy Update December 2011

Monetary Policy Update December 2010

Monetary Policy Update December 2009

Monetary Policy Report 2008:2

Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Monetary Policy Update April 2012

Monetary Policy Update September 2011

Monetary Policy Update September 2012

1. Financial markets functioning better Basis spread, basis points

The Riksbank and monetary policy

Wage formation and monetary policy

Figure 1: Inflation Annual percentage change

Model uncertainty and monetary policy at the Riksbank

Presentation transcript:

The Riksbank’s forecasting performance Deputy Governor Svante Öberg

Figure 1. GDP outcomes and forecasts Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 2. Employment outcomes and forecasts Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 3. CPIX outcomes and forecasts Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 4. Productivity outcomes and forecasts Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 5. Forecasting memory, GDP Percentage points Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Kvartal

Figure 6. Forecasting memory, employment Percentage points Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Kvartal

Figure 7. Forecasting memory, productivity Percentage points Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Kvartal

Figure 8. Forecasting memory for the KPIX Percentage points Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Kvartal

Figure 9. Correlations between forecasts and outcomes for the different variables Annual rates of change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 10. Mean error for forecasts, an annual rate Percentage points Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Forecast horizon (quarterly)

Figure 11. Ranking for GDP following year Per cent Note. The Y-axis shows how large a percentage of times analysts have been better than the percentage of analysts as illustrated in the X-axis. In order to see how large a proportion of times the Riksbank has been better than 50 per cent of other analysts, see 50 on the X-axis, then study the red column on the Y-axis. Sources: Statistics Sweden, the National Institute of Economic Research, Consensus Forecasts and the Riksbank

Figure 12. Ranking for the CPI following year Per cent Note. The Y-axis shows how large a percentage of times analysts have been better than the percentage of analysts as illustrated in the X-axis. In order to see how large a proportion of times the Riksbank has been better than 50 per cent of other analysts, see 50 on the X-axis, then study the red column on the Y-axis. Sources: Statistics Sweden, the National Institute of Economic Research, Consensus Forecasts and the Riksbank

Figure 13. The CPIX with uncertainty band Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 14. Repo rate with uncertainty band Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank