Work Plan Site 2 (Ludhiana)

Vulnerability Vulnerability to GEC is not an issue at present, but may be a serious issue in next 5-10 years, if the trend of production pattern depending upon groundwater resources and rice continues. Therefore, to work out vulnerability, some kind of sensitivity analysis will have to be done in Indian Punjab.

Methodology I would like to work on both the methodologeis suggested by Polly and try to test which works better. I am more in favour of the methodology, which is based on some numbers rather than one, which is highly subjective. Indexes are used all over the world despite criticism. If the index serves our purpose in the sense it reflects what we have observed over years in terms of vulnerability and production system being influenced by GEC, we can retain Index methodology.

Methodology I will be interested to build some small model describing relationship of production, GEC and vulnerability for Ludhiana district and see the outcomes by shocking GEC variables. Sensitivity analysis (through tabular analysis) can also be done to assess the impact of changes in global environment particularly groundwater and temperature on production, income and then access to food.

Data sources Plenty of data (experimental as well collected from farmers’ fields) on production sensitivity to changes in temperature and water availability is available and can be used. We have got project running since last 25 years at farmers level computing cost of production for important crops. We can use that data relating to central belt (quite representative for Ludhiana district) and assess the changes in environmental variables on cost of production of wheat and rice and further on income and then further sensitize it to future more severe changes in global environment. Food utilization data will have to be collected from the respondents. The question is from whom? -Rural households or only farm households or rural as well as urban households -second, small, marginal and other households, agricultural labourers. Small artisans living in rural areas, industrial laboureres in urban areas, middle class urban families and so and so forth -Third, what should be the sample size.

Computing vulnerability How ? from the primary data collected now from the respondents Will it not be highly subjective, when we will ask question: -how your consumption pattern will undergo change if the production falls due to lower availability of groundwater or rise in temperature -how vulnerability of urban consumers will be influenced due to fall in production when the trade is getting liberalized and grains can be imported almost at the same price. –I understand the impact on farmers income and consumption