Disunited kingdom? British attitudes to the EU John Curtice and Rachel Ormston 2 December 2015, House of Commons

1 Where is the public on Europe? Divided overall? Divisions between countries? Divisions within countries?

History and current state of GB opinion on the EU 1.

The Long-Term Trend Source: Ipsos MORI 3

The Referendum Race So Far 4

The Partisan Divide Source: Average of most recent BMG, ICM, Survation & YouGov polls 5

Attitudes in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland 2.

777 England is indeed more Eurosceptic Source: British Election Study, post-election internet panel (May 2015), excl. ‘don’t knows’ 7

888 Confirmed by multiple polls and surveys - 1 Source: Average across recent polls in each country, excluding ‘don’t knows’ 8

999 Confirmed by multiple polls and surveys - 2 Source: Survation, YouGov, Ipsos MORI, excluding ‘don’t’ knows’ 9

10 England-Scotland gap not new (but widening?) Source: British and Social Attitudes surveys

11 Tipping point for disharmony? Source: Ormston, % in England vote to remain Less than this and England could take rest of UK out of EU Between 47.5% and 49.9%, England could be kept in the EU by Scotland, Wales and NI * Based on S, W and NI vote matching mean of recent polls 11

12 Why is England more EU- sceptic? NOT demographic differences Patterns by age, education and class similar across the UK (more on this later) If anything, structural differences ought to push opinion in opposite direction

13 Party politics matter Source: British Election Study, post-election internet panel (May 2015). 13

14 Party politics matter Country difference NOT statistically significant once difference in GE vote controlled for Direction? GE vote influenced by EU views? BUT lukewarm enthusiasm for EU ref Political leadership may be key to outcome AND level of divergence

15 Identity matters (in England especially) Source: British Election Study, Wave 4 63% of ‘Very strongly English’ would vote to leave 41% of ‘Very strongly Scottish’ would vote to leave 45% of ‘Very strongly Welsh’ would vote to leave 15

16 Though perhaps not European identity 1 Source: British Social Attitudes

17 Though perhaps not European Identity 2 Source: British Social Attitudes

How attitudes vary between different groups within the UK 3.

No Consistent Gender Gap 19

The Age Gap Younger = except YouGov 18-39; Older = 65+ except Survation 55+, YouGov

The Class Difference 21

The Education Backdrop Sources: BES: British Election Study Face to Face Post-Election Survey; BSA: British Social Attitudes

 EU referendum is exposing a divide between a younger, educationally well qualified Britain and an older, less educationally accomplished one.  Reflects a gap between those who are educationally and culturally comfortable with immigration and global capitalism and those who are not.  Creates a potential challenge for Tory Euroscepticism and Labour Euroenthusiasm. A Social Divide 23

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