Eurostat Implementation European system of accounts 2010 Eurostat 5 November 2014

Eurostat Content overview Part A: Impact of ESA 2010 on GDP Part B: Impact of ESA 2010 on the statistics for the excessive deficit procedure (EDP)

Eurostat Part A: A.1. Impact on GDP A.2. What is driving revisions to GDP

Eurostat The main ESA 2010 changes Research and Development Expenditure on weapon systems Inexpensive tools for common operation Government, public/private sector delineation Employers' pension schemes

Eurostat A.1. Impact on GDP Level changes

Total impact on EU GDP level – % Methodological changes (ESA2010) 2.27% Methodological changes (ESA2010) 2.27% + + Statistical improvements 1.40% Statistical improvements 1.40%

Eurostat Methodological changes (ESA2010) Impact on EU GDP Research and development1.86% 2Expenditure on weapon systems0.17% 3Inexpensive tools for common operations0.07% 4Government, public/private sector delineation0.06% 5Employers' pension schemes0.06% 6Other methodological changes0.05% TTotal2.27%

Eurostat Statistical improvements Impact on EU GDP New or improved data sources0.45% 2Exhaustiveness and improvements related to GNI reservations: illegal activities 0.38% 3Exhaustiveness and improvements related to GNI reservations: other 0.37% 4Other statistical changes0.20% TTotal1.40%

Eurostat Summarising the changes to EU GDP

Eurostat Summarising the changes to EU GDP Other methodological changes

Eurostat Summarising the changes to EU GDP Other methodological changes

Eurostat Summarising the changes to EU GDP Other statistical improvements Other methodological changes

Eurostat Changes in GDP levels: country data

Eurostat Changes in GDP levels: country data

Eurostat Changes in GDP levels: country data

Eurostat Changes in GDP levels: country data

Eurostat Nominal GDP under ESA95 and ESA 2010 (€ billions)

Eurostat Nominal GDP under ESA95 and ESA 2010 (€ billions) €461bn GDP of Sweden: €436bn

Eurostat Nominal GDP under ESA95 and ESA 2010 (€ billions)

Eurostat Nominal GDP under ESA95 and ESA 2010 (€ billions)

Eurostat EU GDP growth rate

Eurostat EU GDP growth rate

Eurostat Euro area GDP growth rate

Eurostat Euro area GDP growth rate

Eurostat A.2. What is driving the revisions to GDP?

Eurostat What are the main components of the production approach? Output Intermediate Consumption Gross Value Added EU28 = 11.5 tri euros less

Eurostat Where is the GVA (ESA2010) being generated? INDUSTRYEU28 Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 2% M&Q, Manuf, Elec, Gas, Water.. 19% Construction 6% Wholesale, retail, Accom & Food services 19% Information & Communication 5% Financial and insurance activities 6% Real estate 11% Prof, scientific activities, Admin services 10% PAD, Education, human health, social work… 19% Arts, entertainment, recreation 4%

Eurostat Where is the GVA (ESA2010) being generated? INDUSTRYEU28 Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 2% M&Q, Manuf, Elec, Gas, Water.. 19% Construction 6% Wholesale, retail, Accom & Food services 19% Information & Communication 5% Financial and insurance activities 6% Real estate 11% Prof, scientific activities, Admin services 10% PAD, Education, human health, social work… 19% Arts, entertainment, recreation 4%

Eurostat Where is the GVA (ESA2010) being generated? INDUSTRYEU28EA18 Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 2% M&Q, Manuf, Elec, Gas, Water.. 19% Construction 6% Wholesale, retail, Accom & Food services 19% Information & Communication 5% Financial and insurance activities 6% Real estate 11% Prof, scientific activities, Admin services 10% PAD, Education, human health, social work… 19% Arts, entertainment, recreation 4%

Eurostat Where is the GVA (ESA2010) being generated?

Eurostat Where is the GVA ( ESA95 ) being generated?

Eurostat Which industries are driving revisions to GDP?

Eurostat Which industries are driving revisions to GDP?

Eurostat Which industries are driving revisions to GDP?

Eurostat Revisions to EU28 GVA by industry for the year 2010

Eurostat Revisions to EU28 GVA by industry for the year 2010

Eurostat What are the expenditure components of GDP? Final consumption expenditure Households and Non Profit Institutions Serving HH General Government Gross capital formation Gross fixed capital formation Changes in inventories Acq less Disp of valuables Exports less Imports

Eurostat How do expenditure components contribute to GDP?

Eurostat How do expenditure components contribute to GDP?

Eurostat EU28 – ESA95 vs ESA2010 Expenditure components of GDP

Eurostat GFCF and HH&NPISH Fin Cons Exp as a % of GDP

Eurostat GFCF and HH&NPISH Fin Cons Exp as a % of GDP

Eurostat EU28: Revisions from the expenditure components of GDP

Eurostat EU28: Revisions from the expenditure components of GDP

Eurostat EU28: Revisions from the expenditure components of GDP

Eurostat EU28: Revisions from the expenditure components of GDP

Eurostat EU28: Revisions from the expenditure components of GDP

Eurostat Next steps Asset breakdowns of gross fixed capital formation Income components by industry Further analysis on trade Further industry breakdowns up to A*64

Eurostat Conclusions Changes shift EU GDP upwards by 3.67% Recalculation of back data  no breaks in series Changes hardly impact GDP growth rates Industries driving revisions to EU28 GDP B to E: M&Q, manufacturing, electricity, gas, water supply… PAD, compulsory social security, education, human health and social work activities Expenditure components driving revisions to levels of EU28 GDP Gross fixed capital formation HH & NPISH Final consumption expenditure

Eurostat Part B: Government Finance Statistics Overview of topics B.1. Publication of deficit and debt and relating information – annual and quarterly data B.2. Quick reminder on the ESA 2010-driven methodological changes on deficit and debt B.3. Revisions of deficit and debt data

Eurostat B.1. Publication of deficit and debt and relating information – annual data EA18 and EU28 Individual Member State data GDP, deficit and debt % expenditure and revenue Short explanation about revisions

Eurostat B.1. Publication of deficit and debt and relating information – annual data

Eurostat B.1. Publication of deficit and debt and relating information – quarterly data

Eurostat B.1. Publication of deficit and debt – annual and quarterly data

Eurostat B.1. Publication of deficit and debt – annual and quarterly data

Eurostat Delineation of general government sector – impact on deficit and debt A change in the criteria (quantitative and qualitative) which may lead to the reclassification of entities into or outside the general government sector; "Special units" controlled by government Lump sums related to pension schemes – impact on deficit A change in the recording of lump sums paid to government in relation to transfer of pension funds Treatment of swaps – impact on deficit The removal of an adjustment made for net interest flows associated with swaps and forward rate agreements B.2. Quick reminder on ESA 2010 changes impacting deficit and debt

Eurostat Other changes due to ESA 2010 – impact on deficit and/or debt Mainly standardised guarantees, payable tax credits and government issued permits Other changes not due to ESA 2010 – impact on deficit and/or debt Benchmark revisions Correction of errors and any other changes B.2. Quick reminder on ESA 2010 changes impacting deficit and debt

Eurostat Revision in EU28 debt ratio 2013: -1.8pp from 87.1% (April 2014, ESA 95) to 85.4% (Oct. 2014, ESA 2010) Due to revision of debt +1.2pp Due to revision of debt +1.2pp Due to revision of GDP -3.0pp Due to revision of GDP -3.0pp ESA pp ESA pp Other statistical improvements +0.2pp Other statistical improvements +0.2pp

Eurostat Revisions to the government debt ratio for 2013 (from April to October 2014) Percentage points of GDP

Eurostat Revision in EU28 deficit ratio 2013: +0.1pp from -3.3% (April 2014, ESA95) to -3.2% (Oct. 2014, ESA 2010) Due to revision of deficit 0.0pp Due to revision of deficit 0.0pp Due to revision of GDP +0.1pp Due to revision of GDP +0.1pp ESA pp ESA pp Other statistical improvements +0.1pp Other statistical improvements +0.1pp

Eurostat Revisions to the government deficit ratio for 2013 (from April to October 2014) Percentage points of GDP

Eurostat ESA 2010-related revisions to govt deficit for 2013 (from April to October 2014) Percentage points of GDP

Eurostat ESA 2010 undoing deficit impacts: lump sum payments for pension schemes (from April to October 2014) Percentage points of GDP

Eurostat Ireland case ESA 2010: reclassification of a bad bank IBRC* (from April to October 2014) Percentage points of GDP *IBRC - Irish Bank Resolution Corporation Limited

Eurostat References For further information Eurostat website: tal/eurostat/home/ tal/eurostat/home/ Eurostat data base: tal/statistics/search_database tal/statistics/search_database