Computational thought is good for business. Senior Symposium: Shende Adam Fariss

Outline Successful business Economic predictions difficult and imprecise Archaic Traditional Economic Theory: Concerned with what not how? Economic Instincts Understanding of decision-making process Is thought computational? Human Capabilities Traditional Economic Theory vs. Computational thought Exploitation of information Past Experience Rationale Could a program prioritize rationale? Effects Forced smoothing of cycles Predictions Control Negative?

Business Success  Ability to predict  Accuracy pays  Largely based on “gut feeling” or “Business Sense”  Economic principles very influential  Archaic

Economics  “Traditionally… concerned with what decisions are made rather than how they are made” (Simon 494)  Predicting and extrapolating Accuracy  Economic instincts? “Natural selection built the decision-making machinery in human minds” (Cosmides and Tooby 328) Ex: Invisible hand

Computational Thought  Cosmides and Tooby:  “The Brain is complex computational device” (pp. 328)  Evolution created inherent hard wiring  Baum:  “The mind could not be just a computer program” (pp. 76)  Semantics  Understanding = Compression  Human capability

Traditional Economic theory vs. Computational Thought  Basis:  Exploitation  Experience  Rationale Intentional Irrationality “risk preferring…males” (Robson 209) - Gambles Herd Mentality vs. self preservation  How would a program differentiate?

Effects  Existence of Economic/Business instincts would allow:  Smoothing of cycles  Computers could make accurate predictions for humans  Proactive  Control of economy/people  Negative?

Work Cited  Answers.com. Investment. Invisible Hand Cosmides, Leda; John Tooby. The American Economic Review. Better than Rational: Evolutionary Psychology and the Invisible Hand. Vol. 84, No. 2. pp May, Baum, Eric B. What is thought? Massachusetts: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Damasio, Antonio. The Feeling of What Happens. “Body and Emotion in the making of Consciousness.” Florida: Harcourt inc Jackson, Frank. “Epiphenomenal Qualia” The Philosophical Quarterly Vol. 32, No. 127: April Robson, Arthur J. The Journal of Economic Perspectives. [Evolution and Human Nature]: Response from Arthur Robson. Vol. 17, No. 2. pp Spring Simon, Herbert A. The Bell Journal of Economics. On how to Decide What to Do. Vol. 9, No. 2. pp Autumn, 1978 The Mind. “Thinking.”