Congressional Voters 17.251 Fall 2004. Turnout How to Calculate Turnout Pct. Turnout Pct. = Turnout / VAP not Turnout / Registered New measure: Turnout.

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Presentation transcript:

Congressional Voters Fall 2004

Turnout

How to Calculate Turnout Pct. Turnout Pct. = Turnout / VAP not Turnout / Registered New measure: Turnout / Voting eligible population

Turnout/VEP vs. Turnout/VAP

Variation in Turnout 1998 & 2000 Mean = 171,469Mean = 223,000

Correlation in Turnout 1998 to 2000

Primary & General Election Turnout, 2000

Explaining (Non-)Voting Expected value of voting = –Benefit the individual receives as a consequence of the election outcome –Minus –The cost of voting

Explaining (Non-)Voting State of the World w/out Citizen’s Vote Net Benefit if Citizen Abstains Net Benefit if Citizen Votes Condition under which Citizen Should Vote D wins by more than 1 vote B D Citizen B D Citizen – cNever D wins by exactly 1 vote B D Citizen B D Citizen – cNever D and R tie(B D Citizen + B R Citizen )/2B D Citizen – c(B D Citizen - B R Citizen )/2 > c R wins by exactly 1 vote B R Citizen (B D Citizen + B R Citizen )/2 – c (B D Citizen - B R Citizen )/2 > c R wins by more than 1 vote B R Citizen B R Citizen – cNever

Salvaging the Calculus Candidate differenial Costs of voting Closeness of election –Voter attention –GOTV Citizen duty

Who is hurt/helped by turnout Naïve view: Dems helped by turnout

Who is hurt/helped by turnout District view: the “out party” Campaign intensity

Deciding whom to support Ideology –Downsian logic directly Party ID –Downsian logic by proxy

Party and Ideology Distance as Explanatory Factors in 2000 Cong’l Elections HouseIdeology of voter Party IDLib.Mod.Con.Total Dem Ind Rep Total SenateIdeology of voter Party IDLib.Mod.Con.Total Dem Ind Rep Total Source: 2000 ANES Note: R’s not asked ideological placement of House or Senate candidates

Overall voting effect, 2002 House election Party identification Effect of changing from an Ind. to a Dem (0.02) IdeologyEffect of changing from a mod. To a lib (0.02) Democratic incumbent Effect of changing from a open seat race to a Dem. Inc (0.02) Constant0.54 (0.02) R2R2.49 N586

A Word about Primaries Party not a useful cue Not much research, but….. –Primary voters are different from general election voters Primary voters are more ideologically extreme, but Primary voters are more strategically sophisticated than general election voters

The Ideological Purity/Electability Tradeoff Purity Electability C1 C2