Anthropogenic Forest Change in the 21 st century A warning to policy makers or a foretaste of things to come?

Litany of factors forcing change in tropical forests Burning the unburnable Logging synergizes fire Roadbuilding Fragmentation and edge effects Rising sea surface temperature lifts the cloud bank Deforestation alters local climate Accelerating turnover “Idiopathic” compositional change Compositional instability of the “empty” forest

Burning the unburnable

Logging synergizes fire

Roadbuilding synergizes logging

Models of development in the Amazon. Optimistic (top) and nonoptimistic (bottom) scenarios, showing predicted forest degradation by the year (Black is deforested or heavily degraded, including savannas and other nonforested areas. Red is moderately degraded, yellow is lightly degraded, and green is pristine). Laurance et al. 291 (5503):38-- Science

Fragmentation and edge effects add to the risk of fire

Rising sea surface temperature implicated in amphibian extinctions

Deforestation alters local climate

Turnover of tropical forests has accelerated globally

“Idiopathic” forest change

“Empty” forests are compositionally unstable