Meteorologisk institutt met.no Mountain waves in Norway A case study (4. Nov. 2009 ) ‏ Eumetcal NWP course, Dec 2009 Sevim Müller.

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Presentation transcript:

Meteorologisk institutt met.no Mountain waves in Norway A case study (4. Nov ) ‏ Eumetcal NWP course, Dec 2009 Sevim Müller

Meteorologisk institutt met.no Motivation X Helsinki Characteristics of Norway: -Mountains (up to ca. 2500m)‏ -Fjords -Neighbouring the N-Atlantic  Weather is very sensitive to local effects  Mountain waves are a serious thread

Meteorologisk institutt met.no Mountain waves – ”Ingredients” - stable atmosphere - lee-side amplifying: wind is decreasing and/or stability increases from mountain top heights and upover - strong turbulence: 50 kt in 850 hPa (be aware: 40 kt in 925 hPa)‏

Meteorologisk institutt met.no Strong leewind / downslope wind Rotor with weak wind and/or wind of the opposite direction Turbulent areas Mountain waves Courtesy of Eirik Samuelsen

Meteorologisk institutt met.no Available data / Methods Observations Mainy Synop and Metar, (satellites)‏ Models ECMWF, HIRLAM 12KM + 8 KM + 4 KM, UM 4KM +1KM, SIMRA (250 M)‏ Other tools Vertical cross sections and vertical soundings

Meteorologisk institutt met.no 4. November 2009 – 12 UTC Mainy Synop and Metar, (satellites)‏

Meteorologisk institutt met.no 4. November 2009 – 18 UTC Mainy Synop and Metar, (satellites)‏

Meteorologisk institutt met.no 4. November 2009 – Metar Sandnessjøen and Brønnøysund ENST Z 06007KT 030V150 CAVOK 07/M03 Q1004= ENST Z 07011KT 360V FEW025 BKN100 08/M03 Q1004= ENST Z 03007KT 330V150 CAVOK 08/M03 Q1004= ENST Z 06010G20KT 030V180 CAVOK 08/M03 Q1004= ENST Z 04006KT 300V110 CAVOK 08/M04 Q1004= ENST Z VRB08G16KT 9999 FEW050 SCT080 08/M02 Q1005= ENST Z VRB07G18KT CAVOK 07/M02 Q1006= ENBN Z 14017G30KT 110V190 CAVOK 07/M03 Q1003= ENBN Z 13017G32KT 100V160 CAVOK 07/M02 Q1003 RMK/RWY G44KT= ENBN Z 14024G50KT 100V200 CAVOK 07/M02 Q1003= ENBN Z 14022G37KT 100V FEW045 SCT120 07/01 Q1002 RMK/RWY G52KT 100V160= ENBN Z 13036G54KT 100V FEW045 BKN120 0/M01 Q1002 RMK/RWY G66KT= ENBN Z 14037G58KT 100V FEW035 SCT120 07/M01 Q1001= ENBN Z VRB06KT 9999 FEW035 SCT120 07/M02 Q1005= ENBN Z 12021G49KT 090V FEW035 SCT100 07/M01 Q1005=

Meteorologisk institutt met.no 4. November 2009 – Metar Sandnessjøen and Brønnøysund ENST Z 06007KT 030V150 CAVOK 07/M03 Q1004= ENST Z 07011KT 360V FEW025 BKN100 08/M03 Q1004= ENST Z 03007KT 330V150 CAVOK 08/M03 Q1004= ENST Z 06010G20KT 030V180 CAVOK 08/M03 Q1004= ENST Z 04006KT 300V110 CAVOK 08/M04 Q1004= ENST Z VRB08G16KT 9999 FEW050 SCT080 08/M02 Q1005= ENST Z VRB07G18KT CAVOK 07/M02 Q1006= ENBN Z 14017G30KT 110V190 CAVOK 07/M03 Q1003= ENBN Z 13017G32KT 100V160 CAVOK 07/M02 Q1003 RMK/RWY G44KT= ENBN Z 14024G50KT 100V200 CAVOK 07/M02 Q1003= ENBN Z 14022G37KT 100V FEW045 SCT120 07/01 Q1002 RMK/RWY G52KT 100V160= ENBN Z 13036G54KT 100V FEW045 BKN120 0/M01 Q1002 RMK/RWY G66KT= ENBN Z 14037G58KT 100V FEW035 SCT120 07/M01 Q1001= ENBN Z VRB06KT 9999 FEW035 SCT120 07/M02 Q1005= ENBN Z 12021G49KT 090V FEW035 SCT100 07/M01 Q1005= modfl

Meteorologisk institutt met.no 4. November 2009 – Metar Sandnessjøen ENST Z VRB05KT 9999 FEW040 SCT080 10/02 Q0999= ENST Z 11010KT 040V SKC 08/M06 Q1000= ENST Z 13015G25KT 070V SKC 09/M07 Q1001= ENST Z 13013G24KT 040V SKC 09/M07 Q1000= ENST Z 13016G33KT 050V SKC 10/M07 Q1002= ENST Z 14010KT 050V SKC 08/M06 Q1003= ENST Z 14008KT 030V210 CAVOK 07/M05 Q1003= ENST Z 06007KT 030V150 CAVOK 07/M03 Q1004= ENST Z 07011KT 360V FEW025 BKN100 08/M03 Q1004= ENST Z 03007KT 330V150 CAVOK 08/M03 Q1004= ENST Z 06010G20KT 030V180 CAVOK 08/M03 Q1004= ENST Z 04006KT 300V110 CAVOK 08/M04 Q1004= ENST Z VRB08G16KT 9999 FEW050 SCT080 08/M02 Q1005= ENST Z VRB07G18KT CAVOK 07/M02 Q1006= ENST Z 11013G25KT 030V210 CAVOK 07/M02 Q1007= ENST Z VRB06G16KT 9999 FEW045 SCT060 07/M02 Q1008= ENST Z 10013KT 040V FEW045 SCT060 07/M02 Q1008=

Meteorologisk institutt met.no 4. November 2009 – Metar Brønnøysund ENBN Z 09022G32KT CAVOK 07/M03 Q1001 RMK/RWY G38KT= ENBN Z 14013G25KT CAVOK 07/M04 Q1003= ENBN Z 14014G41KT 090V220 CAVOK 07/M03 Q1003= ENBN Z 14017G47KT 070V220 CAVOK 07/M03 Q1003= ENBN Z 14017G30KT 110V190 CAVOK 07/M03 Q1003= ENBN Z 13017G32KT 100V160 CAVOK 07/M02 Q1003 RMK/RWY G44KT= ENBN Z 14024G50KT 100V200 CAVOK 07/M02 Q1003= ENBN Z 14022G37KT 100V FEW045 SCT120 07/01 Q1002 RMK/RWY G52KT 100V160= ENBN Z 13036G54KT 100V FEW045 BKN120 0/M01 Q1002 RMK/RWY G66KT= ENBN Z 14037G58KT 100V FEW035 SCT120 07/M01 Q1001= ENBN Z VRB06KT 9999 FEW035 SCT120 07/M02 Q1005= ENBN Z 12021G49KT 090V FEW035 SCT100 07/M01 Q1005= ENBN Z 12029G48KT 090V FEW035 SCT100 07/M02 Q1005= ENBN Z 12029G55KT 100V FEW035 SCT100 07/M01 Q1005= ENBN Z 13025G44KT 080V FEW035 SCT100 07/M02 Q1006= ENBN Z 15023G37KT 110V FEW035 SCT120 07/M02 Q1007=

Meteorologisk institutt met.no Forecast for 4. nov Land forecast issued 3. nov. 2009, 11 UTC: Southeast breeze, gale force 8 at exposed places, possibly brief periods with severe gale force 9. Land forecast issued 4. nov. 2009, 11 UTC: Southeast near gale force 7 at exposed places, in periods gale force 8, in south severe gale force 9. Brønnøysund TAF: ENBN Z 0406/ KT CAVOK TEMPO 0406/ G50KT= ENBN Z 0409/ KT CAVOK TEMPO 0409/ G50KT= AMD ENBN Z 0412/ G35KT CAVOK TEMPO 0412/ G60KT= ENBN Z 0412/ G35KT CAVOK TEMPO 0412/ G60KT= ENBN Z 0415/ G35KT CAVOK TEMPO 0415/ G60KT= ENBN Z 0418/ G35KT CAVOK TEMPO 0418/ G55KT= ENBN Z 0421/ G35KT 9999 FEW030 SCT100 TEMPO 0421/ G55KT=

Meteorologisk institutt met.no 4. Nov – Synoptic situation Mainy Synop and Metar, (satellites)‏

Meteorologisk institutt met.no 4. Nov – Synoptic situation Mainy Synop and Metar, (satellites)‏

Meteorologisk institutt met.no Vertical cross section - 06z UM 4km – z – Theta-field (white lines), wind arrows, wind strength (coloured)

Meteorologisk institutt met.no Vertical cross section - 12z UM 4km – z – Theta-field (white lines), wind arrows, wind strength (coloured)

Meteorologisk institutt met.no Conclusion Forecast more wind. Models are quite good understanding the general situation but did not forecast this strong gusts. Human forecasters forecast stronger winds and mountain waves, but not enough and not exact timing. To forecast strong turbulence / gusting use (amongst others): vertical cross sections.