18 December 2015 – Megatrends Conference, Brussels Presentation by Dr. Hans Bruyninckx, Executive Director, EEA Megatrends en transities: Europa’s langetermijn milieu en klimaatbeleid

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT The European Environment Agency The EEA is an EU agency that operates at the interface of science and policy. With a network of more than 300 institutions in 39 European countries, the EEA provides timely, reliable and relevant information to support sustainable development. EEA work is targeted at EU institutions, EEA member countries, civil society and the general public.

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT The European environment – state and outlook 2015 (SOER 2015) A comprehensive assessment of past trends and future outlooks. SOER 2015 informs policy implementation and reflects on opportunities to recalibrate policies, knowledge, investments and innovations in line with the 2050 vision of the 7th EAP. SOER 2015 Synthesis report SOER 2015 Assessment of global megatrends 11 briefings Global megatrends 25 briefings European briefings 9 briefings Cross-country comparisons 39+3 briefings Countries and regions

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT / SUSTAINABILITY Acquis WFD targets Fisheries below MSY MDGs Halt biodiversity loss targets => 2030 Circular Economy SDG Vision in 7th EAP Reduce GHG % Zero impacts (air) TIME The policy context

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Vision of the 7th Environment Action Programme ‘In 2050, we live well, within the planet's ecological limits. Our prosperity and healthy environment stem from an innovative, circular economy where nothing is wasted and where natural resources are managed sustainably, and biodiversity is protected, valued and restored in ways that enhance our society's resilience. Our low-carbon growth has long been decoupled from resource use, setting the pace for a global safe and sustainable society. ’ Source: 7th EU Environment Action Programme

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT SocialEnvironment Economy Sustainable development? Of course not! Sustainability revisited

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Living well, within environmental limits

Synthesis report Terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity Land use and soil functions Ecological status of freshwater bodies Water quality and nutrient loading Air pollution and its ecosystem impacts Marine and coastal biodiversity Climate change impacts on ecosystems Material resource efficiency and material use Waste management Greenhouse gas emissions and climate change mitigation Energy consumption and fossil fuel use Transport demand and related environmental impacts Industrial pollution to air, soil and water Water use and water quantity stress Water pollution and related environmental health risks Air pollution and related environmental health risks Noise pollution (especially in urban areas) Urban systems and grey infrastructure Climate change and related environmental health risks Chemicals and related environmental health risks Protecting, conserving and enhancing natural capital Resource efficiency and the low-carbon economy Safeguarding from environmental risks to health 01 BACK TO TABLE OF CONTENTS Integrated assessment of environmental trends Part 1  Setting the scene: The context for European environmental policy, and the global megatrends that directly and indirectly affect Europe’s environment. Part 2  Assessing European trends: The trends and outlook for 20 environmental issues grouped under the 3 priority objectives of the 7th Environment Action Programme. Part 3  Looking ahead: The overall picture of the European environment’s state and outlook, and opportunities to support the transition to a more sustainable society.

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Key messages from SOER 2015 Policies have delivered substantial benefits for the environment, economy and people’s well-being; major challenges remain Europe faces persistent and emerging challenges linked to production and consumption systems, and the rapidly changing global context Achieving the 2050 vision requires system transitions, driven by more ambitious actions on policy, knowledge, investments and innovation Doing so presents major opportunities to boost Europe’s economy and employment and put Europe at the frontier of science and innovation © Daniel Danko, Environment & Me /EEA

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Thematic priority objective 1: Protecting, conserving and enhancing natural capital Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report. Past (5–10 year) trends Progress to policy targets Terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity  Land use and soil functions No target Ecological status of freshwater bodies  Water quality and nutrient loading  Air pollution and its ecosystem impacts  Marine and coastal biodiversity  Climate change impacts on ecosystems No target Improving trends dominate Trends show mixed picture Deteriorating trends dominate Largely on track Partially on track Largely not on track    20+ years outlook

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Thematic priority objective 2: Resource efficiency and the low-carbon economy Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report. Past (5–10 year) trends Progress to policy targets Material resource efficiency and material use No target Waste management  Greenhouse gas emissions and climate change mitigation  /  Energy consumption and fossil fuel use  Transport demand and related environmental impacts  Industrial pollution to air, soil and water  Water use and water quantity stress  Improving trends dominate Trends show mixed picture Deteriorating trends dominate Largely on track Partially on track Largely not on track    20+ years outlook

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Thematic priority objective 3: Safeguarding from environmental risks to health Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report. Past (5–10 year) trends Progress to policy targets Water pollution and related environmental health risks  /  Air pollution and related environmental health risks  Noise pollution (especially in urban areas)  Urban systems and grey infrastructure No target Climate change and related environmental health risks No target Chemicals and related environmental health risks  /  Improving trends dominate Trends show mixed picture Deteriorating trends dominate Largely on track Partially on track Largely not on track    20+ years outlook /

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT The overall picture: Efficiency improvements have not secured long-term resilience Protecting, conserving and enhancing natural capital Resource efficiency and the low-carbon economy Safeguarding from environmental risks to health Past (5–10) year trends Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report. Improving trends dominate Trends show mixed picture Deteriorating trends dominate 20+ years outlook /

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Understanding past trends and future outlooks Two major factors explain the uneven progress and prospects: 1. The changing global context Competition for resources Pressures from outside Europe Planetary boundaries 2. Systemic characteristics of environmental challenges Complexity Uncertainty Environmental, social and economic interdependencies © Ana Skobe, Environment & Me /EEA

Global megatrends 02 Intensified global competition for resources Growing pressures on ecosystems Increasingly severe consequences of climate change Increasing environmental pollution Diversifying approaches to governance Diverging global population trends Towards a more urban world Changing disease burdens and risks of pandemics Accelerating technological change Continued economic growth? An increasingly multipolar world BACK TO TABLE OF CONTENTS Setting the scene

Related content COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT SOER2015 / Global megatrends /Setting the scene What are global megatrends? © NASA Earth Observatory Global megatrends = –large-scale –high impact –often interdependent –social, economic, political, environmental or technological changes. Europe’s ecological and societal resilience will be increasingly affected by those global driving forces. This increasing interdependence presents many challenges but also many opportunities for Europe to shape its future.

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Related content The changing global context Global megatrends affect Europe’s resource needs ….global megatrends strongly impact Europe’s ability to meet its basic resource needs in the coming decades Population Economy Technology Environment Governance

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Related content Growing population, but at a slower rate Asia, Africa (!) on the rise Older Migration The changing global context Diverging global population trends (UN, 2013) 43 %... growth of the global population by 2050

Related content COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT SOER2015 / Global megatrends /Towards a more urban world Urban areas in developing countries will absorb most of the global population increase, with 67% of people living in cities by Most of the growth is expected to be in megacities Compact cities are the most efficient and environmentally sustainable Urban growth is driving land-use change in Europe Integrated urban management could increase the environmental resilience of Europe’s cities, particularly in the east and south. © Adela Nistora, Environment & Me /EEA GO TO ONLINE BRIEFING

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Related content SOER2015 / Global megatrends / By 2050, 67% of the world population is expected to live in cities Towards a more urban world Source: UN World urbanization prospects: The 2012 revision. Urban and rural population in developed and less developed world regions, 1950–2050

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Related content The changing global context Growing urban middle class 170 % Expected growth from 1.8 billion in 2010 to 4.9 billion by 2030, with Asia accounting for 85 % of that growth (Brookings Institution, 2012) The global middle class...growth of the global middle class by 2030 Challenge: rapidly growing burden of resource use and pollution Share of middle class consumers

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Related content The changing global context Continued economic growth? 300 % In the period , global GDP is expected to grow by… (OECD, 2014)

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Related content The changing global context Intensified global competition for resources World materials use has grown 10-fold since 1900 European economy structurally dependent on imports of raw materials (Krausmann et al., 2009)

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT World resource use is expected to at least double in the next three decades © Ana Skobe, Environment & Me /EEA Souce: SERI (2013): SERI Global Material Flows Database Edition. Available at:

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Related content The changing global context Intensified global competition for resources Proportion of global production of EU critical raw materials within a single country, 2010–2012 (EC, 2014)

Related content COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT SOER2015 / Global megatrends /Accelerating technological change The pace of technological change, particularly in the fields of information, communication, nano- and bio-technologies, is unprecedented. This provides opportunities to reduce humanity’s impact on the environment and reliance on non-renewable natural resources. The risks and uncertainties associated with technological innovation can be managed using regulatory frameworks and the precautionary principle. By recalibrating its institutions, policies and environmental knowledge base, Europe can support better risk management, while enhancing innovation and the diffusion of new technologies. © Keith Arkins, Environment & Me /EEA GO TO ONLINE BRIEFING

Related content COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT SOER2015 / Global megatrends /Growing pressures on ecosystems The demands of a growing global population with rapidly changing consumption patterns for food, mobility and energy are exerting ever- increasing pressure on the Earth's ecosystems and their life-supporting services. In combination with climate change, these changes raise concerns about current meat-heavy diets, water use and strategies for bioenergy production. Exacerbated by climate change and continued pollution, rates of global habitat destruction and biodiversity loss are predicted to increase, including in Europe. Continued degradation of global ecosystems and their services will influence poverty and inequality, potentially driving increased migration. © CIFOR GO TO ONLINE BRIEFING

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Related content SOER2015 / Global megatrends / Global biodiversity loss will continue, with the strongest impacts on poor people in developing countries Growing pressures on ecosystems Source: OECD Environmental Outlook to Terrestrial mean species abundance, 2010–2050

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Related content SOER2015 / Global megatrends / The ever rising pressure on the Earth’s ecosystems is fuelled by meat consumption and bioenergy demand Growing pressures on ecosystems Source: Rulli et al., Transnational land acquisition, 2005–2009

Related content COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT SOER2015 / Global megatrends /Increasingly severe consequences of climate change Recent changes in the global climate are unprecedented over millennia and will continue. Climate change is expected increasingly to threaten natural ecosystems and biodiversity, slow economic growth, erode global food security, harm human health and increase inequality. The risks of pervasive and irreversible impacts are expected to increase. They could, however, be reduced by further emissions abatement and adaptation measures, building on past actions in Europe and internationally. Key risks for Europe include flood events, droughts and other weather extremes that damage ecosystems and biodiversity, as well as infrastructure and human well-being. Climate change impacts on ecosystems Water use and water stress Urban systems and grey infrastructure Climate change & related envi. health risks Climate change impacts and adaptation © Manuela Aldeghi, Environment & Me /EEA GO TO ONLINE BRIEFING

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Related content SOER2015 / Global megatrends / Global temperature increases of 4  C or more by 2100 would create significant risks to global food security Increasingly severe consequences of climate change Source: IPPC, Projected change in global aggregate crop yields due to climate change, 2010–2109 Climate change impacts on ecosystems Water use and water stress Urban systems and grey infrastructure Climate change & related envi. health risks Climate change impacts and adaptation

Related content COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT SOER2015 / Global megatrends /Increasing environmental pollution Globally, levels of air pollution and releases of nutrients from agriculture and wastewater remain high, causing acidification and eutrophication in ecosystems, and losses in agricultural yield. In the coming decades, overall pollution levels are projected to increase strongly, particularly in Asia. Although Europe’s pollutant releases are expected to continue declining, European ecosystems and citizens are likely to be affected by developments in other regions. For example, despite a fall in air pollutant emissions there has not been an equivalent improvement in air quality across Europe, partly as a result of the transboundary transport of air pollutants. Air pollution & its ecosystem impacts Industrial pollution to air, soil and water Air pollution & related envi. health risks Air pollution © Jonathan Díaz Marbá, Environment & Me /EEA GO TO ONLINE BRIEFING

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Related content Urban air pollution: main environmental cause of premature mortality worldwide in 2050 Climate change is likely to exacerbate this...of the global burden of disease and deaths can be attributed to environmental causes (mostly PM, ozone) The Changing global context Changing disease burdens and risks of pandemics 25 % (OECD, 2012)

Related content COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT SOER2015 / Global megatrends /Diversifying approaches to governance In the context of rapid globalisation, governments are facing a mismatch between the increasingly long-term, global, systemic challenges facing society and their more national and short-term focus and powers. The need for more coordinated governance at the global scale has been reflected in the proliferation of international environmental agreements, particularly during the 1990s. More recently, businesses and civil society have also taken an increasing role in governance. This broadening of approaches is welcome but it raises concerns about coordination and effectiveness, as well as accountability and transparency. Mitigating climate change GHG emissions & CC mitigation Mitigating climate change © Alan Kotok GO TO ONLINE BRIEFING

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Related content The changing global context What can we conclude? Boundaries between developments in Europe and other parts of the world are growing more blurred. Europe’s success in achieving its environmental, social and economic goals will depend on its ability to respond to the long-term and global contexts. Europeans have two main clusters of response options: Seek to shape global change in ways that mitigate and manage risks, and create opportunities (e.g. unilateral and multilateral efforts to mitigate environmental pressures, etc.). Find ways to adapt to global trends (e.g. seeking to anticipate and avoid harm by increasing the resilience of social, environmental and economic systems, etc).

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Global systems of production and consumption need to be reconfigured ‘good life’ Within environmental limits (Global Footprint Network, 2012; UNDP, 2014)

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Vision of the 7th Environment Action Programme ‘In 2050, we live well, within the planet's ecological limits. Our prosperity and healthy environment stem from an innovative, circular economy where nothing is wasted and where natural resources are managed sustainably, and biodiversity is protected, valued and restored in ways that enhance our society's resilience. Our low-carbon growth has long been decoupled from resource use, setting the pace for a global safe and sustainable society. ’ Source: 7th EU Environment Action Programme

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Not just incremental efficiency gains but fundamental transitions in food, energy, mobility, urban, finance and fiscal systems through profound changes in dominant practices, policies and thinking. Source: Tesla Systemic environmental challenges require systemic solutions

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Cars are more efficient but contribute to a range of negative impacts on people’s quality of life in cities

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Homes are now more energy efficient, but also much larger, increasing pressures on land, water and materials Source: SCP023 indicator (draft)

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT From challenge to response The EU policy and related activities offer a strong basis for action: 7EAP enabling objectives (implementation, innovation, investment, information) Circular economy package Raw Materials Initiative EU climate policy Sustainable Development Goals

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Personal reflections on the outcome of COP21 -2° (and 1,5°!) perspective -Global -Binding -MRV -Deep and fast changes -Level playing field © Victor Troyanov, Environment & Me /EEA

Rapid system change and megatrends Internet since 1994 Obesity in the US 2

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1985 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1986 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1987 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1988 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1989 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1990 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1991 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1992 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1993 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1994 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1995 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1996 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1997 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% ≥20%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1998 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% ≥20%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1999 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% ≥20%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2000 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% ≥20%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2001 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% ≥25%

(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2002 No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% ≥25%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2003 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% ≥25%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2004 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% ≥25%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2005 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% 25%–29% ≥30%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2006 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% 25%–29% ≥30%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2007 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% 25%–29% ≥30%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2008 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% 25%–29% ≥30%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2009 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% 25%–29% ≥30%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2010 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% 25%–29% ≥30%

2000 Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1990, 2000, 2010 (*BMI 30, or about 30 lbs. overweight for 5’4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% 25%–29% ≥30%

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT  Evolutie in probleemdefinitie en kennisbenadering  Zware industriële pollutie  Single issues  DPSIR denken  Systeembenaderingen: probleemanalyse; denkkaders; oplossingen  Evolutie in disciplinaire interesse  Chemici, biologen, ingenieurs  Economen, geneeskundigen, geografen, geologen  Bestuurskundigen, ruimtelijke ordeners, juristen, filosofen  Psychologen, historici, … 40 jaar kennisopbouw

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT  Langetermijndenken  Systeembenadering  Betekenis van limieten in denken, onderzoek en praktijk?  Methodologisch? Scenario’s, future’s studies, for- casting/sight, back-casting, distance to target, gap analysis, cost/benefit analysis 2.0  Onzekerheden, non-lineariteit  Niches, innovatie, R&D  Sterke aandacht voor lock-ins, backlash, breakdown risks Toekomstgerichte kennisontwikkeling

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