Www.floodrisk.org.uk EPSRC Grant: EP/FP202511/1 Good Practice Guidelines for Flood Risk Mapping Keith Beven, Lancaster University With Dave Leedal (Lancaster),

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Presentation transcript:

EPSRC Grant: EP/FP202511/1 Good Practice Guidelines for Flood Risk Mapping Keith Beven, Lancaster University With Dave Leedal (Lancaster), Jeff Neal and Paul Bates (Bristol), Caroline Keef, Neil Hunter and Rob Lamb (JBA Consulting), Simon McCarthy (Middlesex) and Jon Wicks (Halcrow)

EPSRC Grant: EP/FP202511/1 Flood Risk Mapping: framing the application Planning decisions Emergency planning Flood damage assessments and defence design Insurance Generating householder resilience ……

EPSRC Grant: EP/FP202511/1 Sources of Uncertainty in Flood Risk Mapping

EPSRC Grant: EP/FP202511/1 Guidelines for Good Practice as Decision Trees Assumptions to be agreed between analyst and stakeholder(s)…..provides framework for discussing and handling knowledge uncertainties Explicit agreement and record means that later evaluation and review can be carried out Default options, or decision tree of potential options

EPSRC Grant: EP/FP202511/1 Guidelines for Good Practice as Decision Trees Source Uncertainties Pathway Uncertainties Receptor Uncertainties

EPSRC Grant: EP/FP202511/1 Decision Tree for Design Flood Magnitude

EPSRC Grant: EP/FP202511/1 Case Study: Modelling inundation at Mexborough for the AEP 0.01 event given observations from 2007

EPSRC Grant: EP/FP202511/1 Mexborough Risk Mapping: Defining Input Uncertainties WinFAP estimate of 0.01 AEP (T100) flood peak at Adwick Mean: 86.6 (m 3 s -1 ) Var: 6.25 (m 3 s -1 )

EPSRC Grant: EP/FP202511/1 FRMRC Visualisation Tool

EPSRC Grant: EP/FP202511/1

EPSRC Grant: EP/FP202511/1

EPSRC Grant: EP/FP202511/1 Summary Guidelines for good practice as decision trees allows dialogue and audit of difficult decisions about uncertainty Good visualisation tools required to communicate meaning of results to users and stakeholders (see demonstration) Full FRMRC Guidelines Report will be available shortly