New Jersey’s Economic Situation Charles Steindel New Jersey Department of the Treasury November 20, 2013

Getting a Focus on the Present National data shows ongoing growth, but there’s still a long way to go to full recovery. – Inflation remains very low. State data releases delayed, as an aftereffect of the federal shutdown. – The latest job and housing permits numbers are for August! – The available information suggests ongoing growth. 2

The National Situation Employment and output are growing, but there still is a long way to go before conditions are back to normal. The outcome of the federal budget talks may be further near-term cuts in spending. – Better than a shutdown, but… 3

Real GDP Growth Continues 4

Despite Ongoing Job Growth 5

A Big Job Gap Remains 6

Inflation Remains Very Subdued 7

Under these circumstances, the Fed continues to do all it can to support growth, while… 8

Preparing for Internal Change 9

New Jersey Conditions Latest hard numbers on employment and homebuilding are from August. Information from business surveys and other sources suggests ongoing growth. – Sandy recovery only part of the story. 10

NJ Firms See Conditions as Stable in the U.S. 11

And in New Jersey 12

South Jersey Firms: Backing Off Giddy Spring Views, but Still Positive on the Region 13

Philadelphia Fed’s Regional Manufacturing Index is Elevated 14

New Jersey Housing on the Rise 15

Gains Centered Outside Shore Counties 16

New Jersey Single-Family Home Sales Growth Outpacing the Nation (percent change from one year ago) 17

Auto Sales Are Also Rising 18

New Jersey’s Personal Income is Moving Up 19

New Jersey’s Labor Force Participation and Unemployment Rates Our labor force participation rate is about where it was in early 2011, and is now more than 2 points above the noticeably reduced national rate. The drop in the national labor force participation rate has helped lower the nation’s reported unemployment rate. That factor has been much less evident in New Jersey. 20

Labor Force Participation Rates The Gap Between New Jersey and the Nation has Widened 21

Our Continuing High Participation Rate Has Held Back Declines in Our Unemployment Rate 22