A Link between Tropical Intraseasonal Variability and Arctic Stratospheric O 3 Yuk L. Yung 1, K.-F. Li 1, B. Tian 2, K.-K. Tung 3, L. Kuai 2, and J. R. Worden 2 1 California Institute of Technology 2 Jet Propulsion Laboratory 3 University of Washington 1 Aura Meeting 1-3 Oct 2012, Pasadena

 Li, K.-F., B. Tian, D. E.Waliser, M. J. Schwartz, J. L. Neu, J. R. Worden, and Y. L. Yung. (2012). “Vertical structure of MJO-related subtropical ozone variations from MLS, TES, and SHADOZ data” Atmos. Chem. Phys., –436. doi: /acp  King-Fai Li, Baijun Tian, Ka-Kit Tung, Le Kuai, John R. Worden, and Yuk L. Yung, A link between tropical intraseasonal variability and polar stratospheric ozone, submitted to J. Geophys. Res. Outline 2

 The Madden-Julian oscillation  Motivation: air quality forecast  Aura O 3 data: MLS, TES, TOMS  MJO-modulations in global O 3  What more from Aura? Outline 3

 Dominant form of intraseasonal variability in the tropics  Strongest during boreal winters  Slow (~5 m/s) eastward-propagating oscillations in tropical deep convection and large-scale circulation  Life cycle ~ 40–60 days Madden & Julian [1971; 1972], Lau and Waliser [2005], Zhang [2005] Madden-Julian oscillation 4 mm/day

 Operational forecasts can now predicts weather 2 weeks ahead  Impacts of the MJO on the chemical components have only been realized recently  Advanced knowledge of air quality, e.g. Air Quality Index  Helpful for emergency control and release of early warnings to vulnerable Impacts on tracers: Motivation 5

6 TES OMI  MLS + TES Troposphere to stratosphere  OMI Total column  HIRDLS Like MLS, not used here O 3 coverage by Aura

O 3 : More than tropics 7 Li et al. [2012]

8 (c) TOMS + OMI Consistency between Aura Measurements Li et al. [2012]Tian et al. [2006]

MJO Teleconnection of Polar O 3 9  Same patterns from MLS, TES and OMI

10 MJO Teleconnection from Aura measurements

Connection to Lower Stratosphere Rui and Wang [1990]. 11 Rossby waves Arctic Teleconnection

12 Tropopause height +O 3 +NO 2 (OMI) +O 3 (TES) +CO 2 +w +H 2 O (MLS, TES) – CO + CO (MLS, TES) What else can Aura provide us? Red: Under investigation

Summary 13  Possible operational air quality forecasts on intraseasonal timescales  Subtle effects revealed from MJO modulation in chemical tracers  O 3 and tropopause motions  Assimilation/Modeling needed

Thank you! 14

YL Yung Meeting 2012Oct 3, 2012

 Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index  Defined from OLR data  The phase space of (RMM 1, RMM 2 ) characterizes the MJO phase number RMM Phase Space

MLS O 3  Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS)  Retrieved from 240 GHz O 3 band  Swath products  Nov 2004 – Feb 2010  Sensitivity from lower stratosphere to upper stratosphere