国际油轮船东协会 国际油轮船东协会 Future Demands on the Tanker Industry the Upcoming New Business Environment Tim Wilkins Regional Manager Asia-Pacific Environmental Manager Image Courtesy of NORDEN AS 2 nd China Shipbuilding Summit Dalian, June 2008

国际油轮船东协会 Presentation overview 1. Oil market and Tanker fleet overview 2. State of the industry: future demands on the tanker industry, the new business environment 1.Overview 2.Environment 3.Human element

INTERTANKO Today members operating ca ships > 80% of the independent oil tanker fleet > 85% of the chemical carrier fleet associate members: in oil and chemical tanker related businesses 15 Committees – 5 Regional Panels Principal Offices – London and Oslo Representative Offices in Asia, US and Brussels Observer Status at IMO, IOPC, OECD and UNCTAD

国际油轮船东协会 INTERTANKO – The Voice of the Tanker Industry MISSION To provide leadership to the Tanker Industry in serving the world with safe, environmentally sound and efficient seaborne transportation of oil, gas and chemical products. VISION FOR THE TANKER INDUSTRY A responsible, sustainable, respected Tanker Industry, committed to continuous improvement and constructively influencing its future. 领导油轮工业取得业绩上的不断改进和提 高，以努力实现以下目标： 零死亡事故 零海洋污染 零港口国控制滞留率 Lead the continuous improvement of the Tanker Industry’s performance in striving to achieve the goals of: Zero fatalities Zero pollution Zero detentions

国际油轮船东协会 INTERTANKO Membership No. members/million dwt No. tankers

Oil market and Tanker fleet overview

国际油轮船东协会 Tanker development (oil and chemical) m dwt number

国际油轮船东协会 Future for Single Hulls Options today Conversion to - DH Tanker - FSU/FPSO - Bulk Carrier Recycling Continue Trading Continued Trading Subject to (i) Flag state and (ii) Coastal state acceptability after 2010 Uncertainty over -Korea -Japan -China -India -Others

国际油轮船东协会 Investment in new tonnage - Move to Double Hulls More than USD 500 billion invested since 2000 with the result that ~95% of tanker fleet double hulled in 2010 Assumed all SH tankers phased out by 2010

国际油轮船东协会 Average age tankers above 10,000 dwt ( ) Years

国际油轮船东协会 Tanker fleet, orderbook and phase out - tankers above 25,000 dwt m dwt 63 m dwt155 m dwt 358 m dwt

国际油轮船东协会 Single Hull Tanker Phase Out - “uncertainty” post 2010 m dwt Assumptions : MARPOL phase out allows for trading until the age of 25 years old, max 2015 The EU alternative does not allow SH trading after DB/DS can trade until the age of 25 years old, but here cut off MARPOL (min phase out - trading of SH until 25 years) EU + no SH after 2010 OPA90

国际油轮船东协会 Where did the Single Hull tankers go in 2007 tankers above 50,000 dwt ‘000 dwt Source: Fearnleys SH Arrivals: NW Europe: 103 arrivals N America: 60 ”

国际油轮船东协会 Share of oil import by hull 2007 ‘000 dwt Source: Fearnleys

国际油轮船东协会 VLCC arriving in AG 1 Dec 2006 – 18 April 2008 No ships Source. PF Bassøe/Pareto Double hull tanker taking over Week number

Phase out by segment

国际油轮船东协会 Tanker fleet: by hull type and size segment m dwt

国际油轮船东协会 Tanker phase out, deliveries, scrapping tankers 25,000 – 59,999 dwt, - assume 2.5% trade increase m dwt Number:347 - SH 312Orderbook: 475 m wt: SH 11.8Orderbook: 22.0 Assume all SH tankers phased out by 2010, balanced market end 2006 Overhang from pre 08

国际油轮船东协会 Tanker phase out, deliveries, scrapping tankers Panamax – assume 2.5% trade growth Number: FleetSH Orderbook Fleet m dwt: Overhang from pre 08 m dwt

国际油轮船东协会 Tanker phase out, deliveries, scrapping tankers Aframax – assume 2.5% trade growth Number FleetSHOrderbook Fleet m dwt m dwt

国际油轮船东协会 Tanker phase out, deliveries, scrapping tankers Suezmax – assume 2.5% trade growth Number: FleetSHOrderbook Fleet m dwt: m dwt

国际油轮船东协会 Tanker phase out, deliveries, scrapping tankers VLCC – assuming 2.5% trade growth NumberFleetSHOrderbook Fleet m dwt m dwt

国际油轮船东协会 m dwt

国际油轮船东协会 Conclusion SH fleet 40% of the orderbook SH tankers becoming marginal in most size segments – biggest share in VLCC segment SH tankers moving to certain areas (66% Asia 2007) Change in VLCC spot market after SH becoming marginal?

State of the Industry

国际油轮船东协会 SHIP OWNEROIL COMPANYSPOKESMAN The rogues of the oil tanker industry

国际油轮船东协会 Tanker incidents 2007 by type and accidental pollution 1000 ts oil pollutionNo. incidents Source: INTERTANKO/LMIU/ITOPF/various

国际油轮船东协会 Accidental oil pollution into the sea Source: ITOPF/Fearnleys 1000 ts spilt bn tonne-m -45% -33% -82% reduction per tonne miles

国际油轮船东协会 Reported tanker incidents Number Source: INTERTANKO/LMIU/various

国际油轮船东协会 Tanker incidents 2007 by type Source: INTERTANKO/LMIU/various

国际油轮船东协会 Tanker incidents 2007 by age Incidents/no tankers: 325 incidents 13% 21% 33%

State of the Industry 1. Environment

国际油轮船东协会 Tanker Industry’s Environmental Agenda Anti-fouling Systems Ballast Water Management Biofouling Ship Recycling Port Reception Facilities Waste Management Marine Noise Pollution Whale Strikes Spill Prevention and Response Planning VOC reductions Atmospheric Pollution - Revision of MARPOL Annex VI Green House Gas Emissions Environmental Benchmarking

国际油轮船东协会 Reduction options Technical and commercial feasibility assessments Carbon (CO2) indexing Design Index (New); Operational Index (existing) Market Mechanisms (Economic Instruments) Emissions Trading, Carbon Levy (Fuel tax), Incentive Schemes One litre of fuel on a modern VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) moving one tonne of cargo more than 2,500 kilometres - more than twice as far as 20 years ago Air emissions – GHGs

国际油轮船东协会 Vessel Design Index Proposed Index (gram CO2/tonne-mile) = Fuel Cons (g/kW hr) x (ME power (kW) x (1+K 2 )) x C/c DWT (tonne) x Max Speed (n mile/hr) x K 1 K 1 is Coefficient of decreased propulsion efficiency in actual sea conditions K 2 is Coefficient of contribution to CO 2 from aux engines and energy conservation equipment Issues for consideration Application to all ship types ? One or more design conditions ? – e.g. load/ballast One or more sea conditions ? – how weighted ? How measured / normalised / verified ? Air emissions – GHGs

State of the Industry 2. Human element

国际油轮船东协会 Human element Availability and Quality Issues But a guiding principle: Human Resources are respected as an asset, not treated as a cost !

国际油轮船东协会 Proud of our people, proud of our ships Proud of our performance – but not complacent ! Human element

国际油轮船东协会 Human element MANNING - IMO Safe Manning Document - ILO Convention Maritime universities TRAINING - Cadet berths - Tanker Officer Training Standards (TOTS)

国际油轮船东协会 Presentation overview 1. Oil market and Tanker fleet overview 2. State of the industry: future demands on the tanker industry, the new business environment 1.Overview 2.Environment 3.Human element

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