1 Jacek Cukrowski Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Advisor, UNDP, Europe and the CIS Bratislava Regional Centre Aid for Trade (AfT) Needs Assessment Geneva, Switzerland, 26 October 2009 SPECIAL PROGRAMME FOR THE ECONOMIES OF CENTRAL ASIA (SPECA) Project Working Group on Trade (Fourth session)

2 Outline  Objectives of AfT Needs Assessments  Main focus and message  The Guide  Proposed structure  Current work on Aft Needs Assessments in Europe and the CIS

3 Objectives Why Trade Needs Assessments?  Identify and overcome existing barriers to trade  Identify the cost of adjusting to current or anticipated trade agreements / trade shocks  Review country competitiveness and export performance  Assess the impact of trade on poverty and human development  Tackle institutional and infrastructure capacity limitations  Suggest action plans to remove bottlenecks and seize opportunities for the poor Identify a set of policy recommendations and technical assistance needs aimed at improving the contribution of trade to human development

4 Main focus Impact of trade on human development  Trade can be a powerful source of economic growth … but while broadly based economic growth is necessary for human development, it is not enough … but while broadly based economic growth is necessary for human development, it is not enough  Human development also requires enlarging people ’ s choices and opportunities — especially poor people ’ s liberalizing trade does not ensure poverty reduction or human development, nor does it guarantee immediate economic growth liberalizing trade does not ensure poverty reduction or human development, nor does it guarantee immediate economic growth  The nature of resource allocation and social inclusion are important determinants of growth leading to poverty reduction and human development for women and those participating in the informal sector, especially for women and those participating in the informal sector, especially

5  It improves economic base  It broadens a range of human choice … but there could be some short-term human development risks that needs to be well understood and countries need to be prepared to minimize possible negative impact of trade on selected social groups Opening trade is key for human development Main messages Opening trade is key for human development

6 Main messages Trade should be integrated into national development policy  Opportunities to use trade to reduce poverty and promote human development should be identified  Human development risks related to trade shocks needs to be understood  Suitable institutions need to be developed to ensure multi-stakeholder participation in trade policy design

7 Trade and national development strategies  If trade is to serve as an engine of economic growth countries must develop a multidimensional strategy for trade expansion  Framed in an appropriate macroeconomic environment  Structural and social concerns should be treated equally with macroeconomic and financial concerns  Trade reforms should be an integral part of comprehensive development frameworks

8 The Guide How to Conduct AfT Needs Assessments Regional guide Global guide 8BD35D19-F203-1EE9-B08767E3833D66C6 AFT%20web.pdf

9 Contents of the Guide 1.Introduction 2. Trade Mainstreaming 3. Trade and Human Development 4. AfT Needs Assessment: Structure and Process 5. Macroeconomic and Business Environment 6. Trade and Investment Policies 7. Trade Facilitation and Standards 8. Sectoral Analysis 9. Trade Policies: An Impact Assessment 10. Final Remarks, Action Matrix and Launching the Study

10 Proposed structure of AfT Needs Assessments (I) Introduction …. short country background, key analytical questions… (II) Macroeconomic and business environment … macroeconomic background (related to poverty, human development, trade and competitiveness) (III) Trade and investment policy … policies and trade and investment dynamics, institutions, trade agreements and market access (WTO accession; trade negotiation strategy…) (IV) Trade facilitation … customs procedures, transportation costs, red tapes and other behind-the-border barriers to trade… underlying causes of inefficiency (V) Sectoral analysis … sectors where trade has the biggest an impact on poverty reduction and human development (VI) Trade policy impact assessment (optional) … impact of trade policy options on poor (VII) Conclusions and action matrix … Recommendations in the form of an Action Matrix. Highlight capacity gaps and propose actions and technical assistance projects to overcome weaknesses….

11 Action Matrix  Action recommended  Desired outcome and target indicator  Timeline for completion of action  Agencies involved  Required resources  Required donor support Important issues: Action priorities Matching with trade related technical assistance

12 Current work on AfT Needs Assessments in Europe and the CIS  UNDP regional project: Wider Europe: AfT for Central Asia, South Caucasus and Western CIS ( )  Project financed by the Government of Finland  Component I: AfT in Central Asia: Identification of National and Regional Priorities  Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan – initiated (Uzbekistan – planned)  AfT Road Map for SPECA Countries (Ministerial Conference planned for 2010)  Component III: AfT Needs Assessments in South Caucasus and Western CIS (planned for 2010)  Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine

13 Thank you… UNDP Europe and the CIS Bratislava Regional Centre UNDP Europe and the CIS Bratislava Regional Centre