The 2006 Constrained Long-Range Transportation Plan: Plan Performance Ronald F. Kirby Director of Transportation Planning October 18, 2006 Item #7

2 The TPB Vision The Vision is a comprehensive set of goals, objectives and strategies guiding the update of the Plan. The SAFETEA-LU Planning Factors are included in the Vision. The Plan’s performance will be assessed in relation to the TPB Vision policy goals and objectives.

3 New Projects and Studies Added in 2006 District –Anacostia Bridges –Anacostia Light Rail Maryland –201 Widening –Cross-County Connector Virginia –VA 28 Interchange at I-66 –I-95/395 HOT Lane Study

4 DistrictMarylandVirginia New Projects Added in 2006

5 Selected Project Highlights

6 New Bicycle/Pedestrian Plan Adopted

7 Other Ongoing Activities Demand Management –Commuter Connections System Management –Traffic Signal Optimization –Regional Transportation Coordination Program –Emergency Planning Pedestrian and Bicycle Safety –StreetSmart Campaign

Financial Plan Forecasted expenditures constrained to expected revenues, but construction costs have been increasing

9 Shifting Funding Sources $3.8 billion per year$4.5 billion per year

10 Expenditures Focusing on Operations and Preservation, Transit

11 Street and highway construction costs have gone up the most drastically over the past few years The graph shows the producer price index rates over the past ten years as indexed Construction Costs Are Increasing

12 WMATA Still Seeking Capital Funding Metro Matters –State and local commitments to fund capital needs through 2010 “Davis Bill” –When passed with local funding, will finance capital needs beyond 2010 Ridership Constraint –The Plan does not assume the “Davis Bill”

Land Use and Population Changes Summary of Round 7.0a of the Cooperative Land-Use Forecasts

14 Population and Employment Growth But employment is growing faster than population

15 Growth is Fastest in Outer Suburbs Urban core defined as The District, Arlington and Alexandria. Inner suburbs defined as Fairfax county in Virginia and Montgomery and Prince George’s counties. Outer Suburbs defined as Loudoun, Prince William, and Stafford counties in Virginia; Frederick, Calvert and Charles counties in Maryland.

Travel Growth and Congestion How will the characteristics of travel in the region change between 2002 and 2030?

17 Congestion Will Worsen VMT Per Capita increases 3% from 24 miles per day in 2002

18 Greatest Congestion in Inner Suburbs The Inner Suburbs will have the greatest number of congested lane miles, while the Outer Suburbs experience the greatest increase Urban core defined as The District, Arlington and Alexandria. Inner suburbs defined as Fairfax county in Virginia and Montgomery and Prince George’s counties. Outer Suburbs defined as Loudoun, Prince William, and Stafford counties in Virginia; Frederick, Calvert and Charles counties in Maryland.

Highly Congested Congested Metro Platforms and Trains Will Be Packed Morning Peak-Hour Transit Congestion: 2000 and 2030 Congested: Over 105 people per rail car, Highly Congested: Over 120 people per rail car

Regional Growth and Activity Clusters

21 Transit Supports Activity Clusters…

22 Employment and Households In Clusters Share of jobs inside clusters remains the same while share of households increases.

23 Transit Share Grows in Clusters Mode share of transit by job location

24 Vast Majority of Transit Work Trips are to Activity Clusters In both 2002 and 2030: Over 90% of transit work trips are to jobs in activity clusters Over 70% are to the three core activity clusters.

25 Summary While meeting federal requirements, the Plan still falls short of the Vision –Congestion is getting worse –Costs continue to rise –Financial constraint limits both highway and transit capacity –Funding shares shifting towards tolls and local funds Transit users work primarily in activity clusters –Share of jobs in activity clusters steady at 72 percent Further analysis of the Plan for Vision goals and objectives is underway