13 th TRB National Planning Applications Conference May 8-12, 2011. Reno, Nevada Rosella Picado Parsons Brinckerhoff.

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Presentation transcript:

13 th TRB National Planning Applications Conference May 8-12, Reno, Nevada Rosella Picado Parsons Brinckerhoff

Motivation  Get rid of fixed time of day factors  Introduce sensitivity to time of day variations in level of service and road prices,  and also to household attributes  Recognize that trip departure and arrival times are not independent

Model design

Approach  Apply tour scheduling concepts to trips  Instead of scheduling individual trips, schedule pairs of trips perIdtripIddepLocdepTimearrLocarrTime 11home8:15 amwork8:50 am 12work6:25 pmhome7:05 pm 21home7:30 amwork8:10 am 22work5:00 pmgas5:35 pm 23gas5:45home5:55 pm

Approach  Simple tour:  Home departure + work departure perIdtripIddepLocdepTimearrLocarrTime 11home8:15 amwork8:50 am 12work6:25 pmhome7:05 pm 21home7:30 amwork8:10 am 22work5:00 pmgas5:35 pm 23gas5:45home5:55 pm

Approach  Simple tour:  Home departure + work departure  Stop time becomes part of trip duration perIdtripIddepLocdepTimearrLocarrTime 11home8:15 amwork8:50 am 12work6:25 pmhome7:05 pm 21home7:30 amwork8:10 am 22work5:00 pmgas5:35 pm 23gas5:45home5:55 pm

Data Prep Assumptions  Use “aggressive” trip linking criteria  Reduces the number of intermediate stops  Increases the number of paired departure/arrival time alternatives in the estimation sample  Increases consistency of mode used on both legs of the trip  Exclude un-paired trips from model estimation  Exclude trips with different outbound and inbound modes  Use transposed AM skims to represent PM travel times (later relaxed)

Diurnal Pattern - HBW

Diurnal Pattern – HBO From Home

Diurnal Pattern – HBO To Home

Time of Day Choices (HBW sample size) Inbound Departure Time Outbound Departure Time 1- Early2- AM3- MD4- PM5- Late Total 1- Early , AM 1081,9994, , MD , PM Late 99 Total191673,1806, ,494

Model Specification  Multinomial logit  Utility terms limited to information available after mode choice:  Travel time  Travel distance * shift  Mode indicator (drive alone / carpool)  Mode indicator * shift  Household income indicator  Shift variable: measures disutility of time elapsed relative to a reference time of day

HBW Estimation Trip AttributeCoefficient (t-stat) Travel time (min) (-5.9) Travel distance (mi), departure time shift (-15.7) Shared ride, departure time shift (-3.0) Low income household, AM departure time (-8.9)

HBW Estimation Coefficient (t-stat) Trip AttributeJoint Model Home Departure Time Work Departure Time Travel time (min) (-5.9) (-7.9) (-0.8) Travel distance (mi), departure time shift (-15.7) (-14.1) (-1.1) Shared ride, departure time shift (-3.0) Low income household, AM departure time (-8.9)

HBW Estimation Choice ConstantsValue (t-stat) Early-5.73 (-9.1) AM-1.97 (-3.8) Departure TimeMD-1.56 (-3.6) PM-1.19 (-3.2) Late0.0 Early0.0 AM (-5.4) Arrival TimeMD (-3.5) PM (-6.3) Late (-9.7) Very Short (-16.2) Short (-14.5) DurationMedium (-10.8) Long 0.0 Long, AM (-15.7)

HBO Estimation Trip AttributeCoefficient (t-stat) Travel time (min) (-3.9) Travel distance (mi), departure time shift Shared ride, start or end in peak0.597 (11.3) Shared ride, start & end in peak0.144 (2.8) Low income household, Early departure time (-2.7) Low income household, AM departure time (-5.4)

Model Application Early AM 6:00-8:59 TOD combinations by outbound ( → ) & inbound ( ← ) directions Trip Early AM EarlyMidday EarlyPM EarlyLate AM Midday AMPM AMLate Midday PM MiddayLate PM Late PM 15:00-18:59 Midday 9:00-14:59 Late 19:00-20:59 Early 21:00-5:59

Model Calibration & Validation  Calibration – reproduce household survey diurnal patterns  Validation – reproduce freeway traffic count patterns FreewayStations Share of Daily Traffic Volume PeMSModel AMPMAMPM All 84717%23%17%23% I %23%16%21% I %23%17%22% I %23%17%22% I %23%17%22% I %25%20%25% I %23%18%23% I %23%18%23% I %24%17%22%

Thank you, Peter!