2009 TCC presentation JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER 2008 YEAR IN REVIEW Mr. Bob Falvey Director, JTWC Typhoon Sinlaku.

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Presentation transcript:

2009 TCC presentation JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER 2008 YEAR IN REVIEW Mr. Bob Falvey Director, JTWC Typhoon Sinlaku

2009 TCC presentation MISSION Provide tropical cyclone analysis, forecast and warning support for Department of Defense, and other US Government assets in the Pacific and Indian Oceans as established by Commander, United States Pacific Command.

2009 TCC presentation JTWC AOR CPHC New Delhi Reunion Tokyo Australia Fiji NHC 33% 8% 11% 13% 7% 17%

2009 TCC presentation 4 TC ACTIVITY NW Pacific NW Pacific 2004: : : : : : : : : : Yr avg: 31 S Indian Ocean & Australia Region 2004: : : : : Yr avg: 23 South Pacific 2004: : : : : 8 25 Yr avg: 6 C Pacific C Pacific 2004: : : : : : : : : : 1 25 Yr avg: 5 25 Yr avg: 5 NE Pacific NE Pacific 2004: : : : : : : : : : Yr avg: 19 Arabian Sea & Bay of Bengal 2004: : : : : : : : : : 7 25 Yr avg: 5 25 Yr avg: 5

2009 TCC presentation 2008 Satellite Fixes By Agency 73% 6% 16% Total Satellite Fixes = 12, %

2009 TCC presentation 2008 Microwave Fixes By Platform (PGTW) Total Microwave Fixes = 5,111  Over half of PGTW fixes are now microwave % 17% 13% 7% 9% 15% 5%

2009 TCC presentation 2008 NORTH IO TRACKS

2009 TCC presentation 2008 S-HEMI TRACKS

2009 TCC presentation 2008 WESTPAC TRACKS 14 Tropical Storms 11 Typhoons 2 Super Typhoons

2009 TCC presentation JTWC TRACK ERRORS (WESTPAC Hours) 24 Hr 48 Hr 72 Hr Goal

2009 TCC presentation 2008 WPAC ERRORS STORM BY STORM

2009 TCC presentation JTWC TRACK ERRORS (WESTPAC Hours) 96 Hr 120 Hr Goal

2009 TCC presentation 2008 WPAC ERRORS STORM BY STORM

2009 TCC presentation 2007 MODEL ERRORS (WESTPAC – Homogeneous)

2009 TCC presentation 2008 MODEL ERRORS (WESTPAC – Homogeneous)

2009 TCC presentation ERROR DELTA (WESTPAC – Homogeneous)

2009 TCC presentation JTWC INTENSITY ERRORS (WESTPAC Hours) 24 Hr 48 Hr 72 Hr 96Hr 120Hr

2009 TCC presentation ITEMS OF INTEREST USAF Civilianization (Complete) MARK IVB DRO Continuation/Expansion Fix Bulletin Changes (Unified DoD/NOAA format, MI fixes included) T-PARC / TCS-08 – Data used in forecasts (Sinlaku) ITOP – Impact of Typhoons on the Pacific JMA GSM out to 132 Hrs / Forecasts to 120 Hrs ECMWF Fields JTWC Roadshow – Sep 09

2009 TCC presentation Contact Info Director: COM: (808) DSN: (315) JT Ops Officer (JTOPS): COM: (808) DSN: (315)

2009 TCC presentation Typhoon FengShen (7W) MODEL ERRORS 10% of the JTWC 120 hour track error due to 07W

2009 TCC presentation SATELLITE RECON FIXES BY JTWC (Total: 9,199)

2009 TCC presentation Mean 1000mb WINDS Jun-Nov Well Defined Monsoon Trough

2009 TCC presentation mb WINDS Jun-Nov08 Lack of Westerlies N-S Monsoon Trough

2009 TCC presentation 2008 JTWC TRACK ERRORS ALL BASINS

2009 TCC presentation MODEL ERRORS Typhoon FengShen (7W)

2009 TCC presentation Typhoon FengShen (7W) MODEL ERRORS