Isotope Simulation of the Evolution of East Asian Monsoon since the LGM: A Preliminary Analysis 对 LGM 以来同位素气候模拟的初步分析 Xinyu Wen & Zhengyu Liu Dept of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Peking University Contributors: Esther Brady & Otto-Bliesner Bette CCR/CGD, NCAR Nanjing

Overview 1. Model-Data Comparison 2. Interpretation of d18O 3. Appropriate Indices for Paleo-EASM/EAWM 4. Improve Understanding of Monsoon Dynamics

EQ North Pole 0% -10% -16% -26% -34% 0% -4% -12% -20% WARMCOLD SMOW Picture of the Problem Cumulus Parameterization Large-scale condensation With cloud microphysics Evaporation

Benefits from Using Isotope-enable Model ？  Model-Data Comparison ？ 气候态偏差；格点 - 站点的代表性；统计降尺度；  Reanalysis d18O ？ 用准确的 Reanalysis 做 Nudging  Proxy Assimilation ？ 利用 Isotope 模式结果，寻找更准确的 Transfer functions ；再 利用此关系，同化 Proxy 以进行更好的古气候模拟

(Sturm, 2010)

Annual Mean d18O in Water Vapor & Precip. CAM GNIP CAM (Lee, et al., 2007)

(ka) 50-yr Integration with Fixed BC 10-yr Spin-up Experiment Design Model: CAM3 with Isotope-enable module Each slice was integrated for 50 years, with first 10-year truncated as spin-up Outputs: Atm/Monthly; Winds/Daily; Water Isotope/Monthly Water Isotopes: d18O in precipitation and in water vapor deuterium (dD) in precipitation and in water vapor

Forcing: GHGs (CO2; CH4; N2O) Orbital Parameters Terrain/Sea Level SST/SICE Water Isotopes at Sea Surface Terrain, Sea Level, SST/SICE are derived from Drs Liu and Feng’s TraCE simulations, which is a fully- coupled transient simulation for the period 22ka-Present. DJF JJA

ANN DJF JJA

Hulu Cave (Wang, 2001) Dongge Cave (Wang, 2005) d 18 O in Precip. JJA

d 18 O in Precip. DJF ? Hulu Cave (Wang, 2001) Dongge Cave (Wang, 2005)

Temperature Effect vs. Amount Effect

Temperature Effect Corr( d18O, Ts ) Inter-Millennium 较松的标准 Inter-Annual 较严的标准 ANN DJF JJA

Amount Effect Corr( d18O, Precip ) Inter-Millennium 较松的标准 Inter-Annual 较严的标准 ANN DJF JJA

ANN DJF JJA ANN DJF JJA 温度效应 vs 数量效应 Corr( d18O, Ts )Corr( d18O, Precip )

Local vs. Regional

ANN DJF JJA ANN DJF JJA Corr( d18O, d18O ) Inter-Millennium 较松的标准 Inter-Annual 较严的标准 d18O 的空间代表性如何？ (Pausata, Battisti, et al, 2011)

ANN DJF JJA ANN DJF JJA Corr( Precip, d18O ) Inter-Millennium 较松的标准 Inter-Annual 较严的标准 Precip (Local) vs. d18O (Regional)

Summary Hints from CAMiso:  d18O 来源于 Indian Ocean  JJA d18O 与 OBS 中很相似  d18O 和 Temp 是大尺度； Precip 是小尺度  d18O 与 Temp 关系更好；而与 Precip 关系小

Fig 1. Time series

Fig 1 (Supplement Material) JJA Time each point V1000V850 SATPrec.

Fig 1 (Supplement Material) DJF Time each point V1000V850 SATPrec.

Fig 1 (Supplement Material) ANN Time each point V1000V850 SATPrec.