Seasonal Adjustment Center of Excellence Quality Report for JD+ Towards a versatile quality report SAEG Meeting - December 7 th, 2015 SACE 1

Quality Report: A Quite Fuzzy Concept “Quality report” are words widely used in the SA context but they cover various meanings and concepts.  Reporting on the SA process (QR, SDMX format) Note: By design, JD+ is “transparent” (workspace)  Checking the quality of the data: “validation report” Several uses and needs  Producing, Disseminating, Using (the series) SACE 2

Producing the series To define the process  choosing the best strategy/model To run the process  using the old/previous parameters To check/improve the process  Annual campaign, production time To prepare the series for publication & storage SACE 3

Disseminating and storing the series Various publications  Informing on overall quality and revisions etc. Various databases, various metadata  Producer databases  Institute databases  Other databases  Often a need for other quality diagnostics (timeliness for example) SACE 4

Using the series “Basic” user  Direct use of the series (indexing contract)  Use of the series to comment the evolution of the sector/Economy  Usually “trust the series”; basic QR Researcher/Econometrician  Focus on very specific criteria: timeliness, revisions, noise, dynamics of the series (model) etc.  Use the QR ….. or not: redo its own adjustment SACE 5

Various objectives → Various Reports? Yes  Metadata ≠ Publication ≠ Producer ≠ Researcher …. and No  Almost every information we can think about can be output by JD+. “Just a reporting problem” What can do JD+? Lots of things …..  The output matrix could be extended / customized  The signal alerts (red lights) can be adapted/tuned  Reports can be automatically created (specific formats) SACE 6

A Generic Structure A set of descriptive data (ex: method, model, parameters, length etc.)  Weight of the descriptive data A set of quality statistics (ex: M1-M11 statistics in X-12)  Weight of the statistics and synthetic quality statistics Weight of the series for selective editing during production time SACE 7

The QR plug-in 1 st step: a simple QR (December 2015).  Selection of a large set of indicators; Based on what already exists in JD+  Difference between X12 and TS 2 nd step: incorporating new information and QR report for producer (accuracy)  Weights of the indicators, of the series  Synthetic indicators  Metadata 3 rd Step: designing a QR for end-users (March 2016)  starting from the previous one and respecting the Euro- SDMX Metadata Structure (ESMS). SACE 8

Where are we? 1 st step is almost completed. We have a first plug-in that outputs a matrix with lots of indicators.  Lists provided by Insee (X12) and Istat (TS)  Huge work (need to learn how to develop a plug- in and need to go into “JD+ guts”) Quick Demonstration SACE 9

Next steps Complete the matrix. Consult members and partners on the list. Select indicators to define a global quality indicator  Example: JD+ outputs different seasonality tests (F- test, Ljung-Box, Box-Pierce, Friedman, Kruskall-Wallis, Combined test, Periodogram tests, visual spectral tests)  Principal component analysis Derive weights to compute a synthetic quality indicator  Simulations and Discriminant analysis SACE 10