HMEP Household Survey Summary of Results Sept-Jan

THE SAMPLE CAVEAT EMPTOR Wave 1 (Sept-Oct 2010) – ~2300 samples (Garmser, Lashkar Gah, Nad Ali, Narri Sarranj, Nawa) Wave 2 (Jan-Feb 2011) – ~2300 new (not repeat) samples from those districts, – added ~1500 samples from Naw Zad, Musa Qala, Sangin, and Reg Diverse, non-representative sample – >350 samples per district – Broad tribal representation across all Districts – ~90% rural – ~30% had some history of being displaced – ~40% admitted income from poppy production

DISTRICT SAMPLE Row LabelsCount Wave 1 Garmser377 Lashkar Gah380 Nad Ali759 Narri Sarranj399 Nawa379 Wave 2 Garmser433 Lashkar Gah265 Nad Ali782 Narri Sarranj595 Nawa377 Naw Zad363 Musa Qala379 Sangin316 Reg(Khanshin)260 Grand Total6064

TRIBE Breakdown Wave 1 Wave 2 Alizai Alokozsai Barakzai Barech15 26 Isha Kharoti Noorzai Non-Pashtun Popalzai Suleimankhel76 70

ATTITUDES TOWARD DISTRICT GOVERNMENT Question: Over the last 12 months in your District, the District Government has… Improved _____ Asked about…Education, Health, Roads, Urban Infrastructure, Security on Roads, Security in Urban Areas, Electricity Supply, Irrigation, Drinking Water, Reduced Govt, Corruption, Access to Info, Central Bazaar, Jobs, Taxes, Listening, Justice Trends and Analysis: – Government corruption and electricity have most unfavorable baselines – Electricity has negative trend – Roads and road security seen positively and improving – Except for electricity, all trends are positive or neutral Question: Over the next six months, do you see each of the following in your district improving, staying the same, or worsening? Answer: Mild positive trend for all questions over all Districts except electricity

OVERALL SECURITY: STATUS CountOverall (1..4) Wave 1 Garmser Lashkar Gah Nad Ali Narri Sarranj Nawa Average 2.78 Wave 2 IMPROVEMENT Garmser Lashkar Gah Nad Ali Narri Sarranj Nawa Naw Zad Musa Qala Sangin Reg(Khanshin) Average Overall improvement, Lashgar Gah is weakest. Wave 2 shows strong baseline across all Districts.

CONTRIBUTORS TO SECURITY IMPROVEMENT How satisfied are you with each of the following’s role in keeping the district secure? Trends from September to January – District Authority: decreased satisfaction – Police: decreased satisfaction – Army: very dramatically decreased satisfaction – ISAF: increased satisfaction – Local Militia: strongly increased satisfaction – Taliban: very strongly increased satisfaction All shifts consistent through all Districts Taliban and Army (dis)satisfaction moves significant (1.5+ pts) in every District

HMEP SURVEY CONCLUSIONS Perceptions about District Government and GIRoA…All Districts – Ability to deliver services and be responsive – neutral, trends are mildly positive – Efforts to decrease poppy production and improve agricultural opportunities -- not seen as important, not increasing – People anticipate improvement in the future Security Improving -- Urban Centers, Roads, and Overall – Improvement attributed to Militia and Taliban – Dissatisfied with Army and Police

BACK UP

Survey Methodology Concerns Huge wealth of unmined demographic information – Potential insights correlating demo to (dis)satisfaction Codebook (.xls) and document vary – Questions in the document not asked Observations are not pair-able Wave 1 and wave 2 vary – Added districts; composition w.r.t. district – Questions’ wording – Questions’ sequence Scales vary – 1..3, 1..4, 1..5 – 1 = good & 1 = bad