Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2013/14 Crop Market Outlook Oct. 13, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Corn Supply and Use Area Planted(mil. acres) Yield(bu./acre) Production(mil. bu.)13,09212,44712,36010,78013,843 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.)1,6731,7081, Imports(mil. bu.) Total Supply(mil. bu.)14,77414,18213,51711,93114,593 Feed & Residual(mil. bu.)5,1254,7954,5464,4755,100 Ethanol(mil. bu.)4,5915,0195,0114,6654,900 Food, Seed, & Other(mil. bu.)1,3701,4071,4281,3951,450 Exports(mil. bu.)1,9801,8341, ,225 Total Use(mil. bu.)13,06613,05512,52811,27012,675 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.)1,7081, ,018 Season-Average Price($/bu.) Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Objective Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Projected Corn Yields Source: USDA-NASS Top: 2013 Projected Yield Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Early Reports on Corn Yields Source: AgWeb.com

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Grind for Ethanol

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Current Corn Futures Source: CME Group, 10/11/

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics New Crop Prices

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Crop Acreage Source: USDA-NASS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Crop Shifts Source: USDA-NASS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Thoughts for 2014 and Beyond  Supply/demand concerns  A lot of production uncertainty for harvest time  Corn demand rebounding?  Acreage allocation for 2014: Where do the extra corn acres go?  Markets favoring soybeans in the short term and corn longer term 2012/13 USDA 2013/14 USDA 2013/14 Futures (10/11/13) Corn$6.90$4.80$4.04 Soybeans$14.40$12.50$12.01

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker:

Corn Sweeteners Prepared by Stephen P. Nicholson, Economist International Food Products

18 Daily December Corn Futures ($/bu.)

19 Weekly Corn Futures ($/bu.)

20 Comparison July ‘13 Futures (ZCN13) vs. July ‘14 Futures (ZCH14)

21 Corn Sweetener Highlights 2014 corn sweetener negotiations have not begun. Some early price discussions have been futile. Not expecting negotiations to begin until after Nov. USDA reports business has been soft. Some major corn wet millers have seen substantial declines in volume While sugar prices are off their lows, cheap sugar is going to keep pressure on corn sweetener prices. Future in Mexico? Proposal to tax sugary beverages—aimed at soft drinks. Future of U.S. HFCS exports to Mexico? Corn futures prices are down significantly from year ago levels--$2.20- $2.50 per bu. In 2014 basis values will be down from 2013, but will be supported by strong demand—ethanol industry and exports. Net corns will also be down, as co-product prices are also declining. Surprisingly, capacity utilization rates still remain historically high.

22 Projections for 2013 Corn Sweeteners Prices There have been no “official” pricing announcements Market talk is that there will be no price announcements until Nov. Individual pricing will depend largely on where your price was in Pricing Indications (over 2013 contract prices) Liquid corn sweeteners: down $3.00-$6.00 per CWT Dextrose: down $3.00-$6.00 per CWT Corn Syrup Solids: down $2.00-$4.00 per CWT Maltodextrins: down $2.00-$4.00 per CWT Crystalline Fructose: $4.00-$6.00 per CWT PFP Corn Starch: $4.00-$6.00 per CWT