Inventory issues – Gothenburg Protocol – RAINS TFIEP Workshop on Emission Projections Thessaloniki, Greece, October, 2006 Zbigniew Klimont EMEP Centre for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM)

Tasks for the review Development of baseline projections for emissions –Based on national projections of (energy and agricultural) activity projections –Compilation of input data For EU countries For non-EU countries Assessment of health and environmental impacts

Bilateral consultations for EU countries IIASA met with representatives of 21 countries and 6 industrial associations Meetings took 45 days over a period 25 March – 23 November national and industrial experts participated Information collected/verified: –National scenarios up to 2020 for energy, transport, agriculture, industrial processes, and VOC sources –Emission factors and other country-specific parameters –“Current legislation” penetration of emission control technologies, potential for further controls and their costs Exchange of information till mid-September 2006

Input data for non-EU countries Bilateral consultations held with: –Norway, (Switzerland) –Russia, Ukraine (funded by DG- ENV) Draft input data documented in CIAM report 1/2006 Feedbacks from national experts invited up to end of 2006 Updated projections in early 2007

Sources of energy projections for non-EU countries AlbaniaGothenburg Protocol 1996NorwayNational projection 2005/2006 BelarusGothenburg Protocol, adjusted 2006 RomaniaPRIMES baseline 2005 Bosnia-H.Gothenburg Protocol 1996RussiaNational projection 2002 BulgariaPRIMES baseline 2005Serbia-M.Gothenburg Protocol 1996 CroatiaGothenburg Protocol 1996SwitzerlandNational projection 2005/2006 T.F.Y.R.O. Macedonia Gothenburg Protocol 1996TurkeyPRIMES baseline 2005 Rep. of Moldova Gothenburg Protocol 1996UkraineNational projection 2004

Draft projections of emissions for non-EU countries (relative to the 2000 levels)

Further time table for the Gothenburg review December 2006: Deadline for comments on input data for non-EU countries May 2007: Draft assessment of environmental impacts presented to TFIAM August 2006: Report to the EMEP Steering Body September 2007: Report to WGSR

Elements of the 2007 workplan Review of the Gothenburg Protocol: –Update national energy & emission projections –Contribution to TFIAM-review report Revision of the protocol: –Report on agricultural emissions modelling –Report on GAINS-model optimizations result –Further development of (dynamic) ecosystem modelling incl. the nitrogen cycle –Further explore options for target setting and robustness analysis –Analysis of effects of hemispheric pollution scenarios –Improve treatment of negative cost measures in GAINS –Further evaluation of sectoral trends & MFR, incl. NTM, emerging technologies & ships