ERCOT Staff Analysis of Model Treatment of Holidays

2 If a single occurrence of a holiday is available in the load research data and a holiday indicator variable is used in the model, a constant holiday adjustment is calculated and applied to all future occurrences of the holiday … is this the best way to model holidays considering this data limitation? – Models developed based on two holiday methods Method 1: Treat holiday as Sunday (no indicator variables used, and no single occurrence holidays) Method 2: Separate holiday indicator variables and constant holiday adjustments are created – For Method 2, only 2005 holidays were coded as holidays All 2004 holidays were excluded from Method 2 model building Model results for 2004 holidays simulates forecasting holidays based on one 2005 occurrence –Method 1 and 2 model results for 2004 holidays were compared to Load Research Means for those days (R2 and graphically) –Note: Thanksgiving, Friday after Thanksgiving, and Christmas Holiday were the only holidays available for 2004 Methodology

R 2 Comparison Holiday Methods vs Load Research Holiday as Sunday is better for 5 of the 6 totals for Profile Types Holiday as Sunday is better for 30 of the 48 Profile Types/WZones

RESHIWR

5 RESHIWR_COAST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

6 RESHIWR_COAST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

7 RESHIWR_COAST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

8 RESHIWR_EAST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

9 RESHIWR_EAST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

10 RESHIWR_EAST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

11 RESHIWR_FWEST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

12 RESHIWR_FWEST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

13 RESHIWR_FWEST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

14 RESHIWR_NCENT Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

15 RESHIWR_NCENT Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

16 RESHIWR_NCENT Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

17 RESHIWR_NORTH Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

18 RESHIWR_NORTH Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

19 RESHIWR_NORTH Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

20 RESHIWR_SCENT Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

21 RESHIWR_SCENT Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

22 RESHIWR_SCENT Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

23 RESHIWR_SOUTH Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

24 RESHIWR_SOUTH Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

25 RESHIWR_SOUTH Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

26 RESHIWR_WEST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

27 RESHIWR_WEST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

28 RESHIWR_WEST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

RESLOWR

30 RESLOWR_COAST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

31 RESLOWR_COAST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

32 RESLOWR_COAST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

33 RESLOWR_EAST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

34 RESLOWR_EAST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

35 RESLOWR_EAST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

36 RESLOWR_FWEST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

37 RESLOWR_FWEST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

38 RESLOWR_FWEST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

39 RESLOWR_NCENT Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

40 RESLOWR_NCENT Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

41 RESLOWR_NCENT Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

42 RESLOWR_NORTH Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

43 RESLOWR_NORTH Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

44 RESLOWR_NORTH Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

45 RESLOWR_SCENT Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

46 RESLOWR_SCENT Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

47 RESLOWR_SCENT Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

48 RESLOWR_SOUTH Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

49 RESLOWR_SOUTH Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

50 RESLOWR_SOUTH Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

51 RESLOWR_WEST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

52 RESLOWR_WEST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

53 RESLOWR_WEST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

BUSHILF

55 BUSHILF_COAST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

56 BUSHILF_COAST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

57 BUSHILF_COAST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

58 BUSHILF_EAST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

59 BUSHILF_EAST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

60 BUSHILF_EAST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

61 BUSHILF_FWEST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

62 BUSHILF_FWEST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

63 BUSHILF_FWEST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

64 BUSHILF_NCENT Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

65 BUSHILF_NCENT Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

66 BUSHILF_NCENT Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

67 BUSHILF_NORTH Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

68 BUSHILF_NORTH Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

69 BUSHILF_NORTH Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

70 BUSHILF_SCENT Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

71 BUSHILF_SCENT Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

72 BUSHILF_SCENT Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

73 BUSHILF_SOUTH Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

74 BUSHILF_SOUTH Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

75 BUSHILF_SOUTH Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

76 BUSHILF_WEST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

77 BUSHILF_WEST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

78 BUSHILF_WEST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

BUSMEDLF

80 BUSMEDLF_COAST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

81 BUSMEDLF_COAST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

82 BUSMEDLF_COAST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

83 BUSMEDLF_EAST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

84 BUSMEDLF_EAST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

85 BUSMEDLF_EAST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

86 BUSMEDLF_FWEST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

87 BUSMEDLF_FWEST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

88 BUSMEDLF_FWEST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

89 BUSMEDLF_NCENT Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

90 BUSMEDLF_NCENT Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

91 BUSMEDLF_NCENT Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

92 BUSMEDLF_NORTH Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

93 BUSMEDLF_NORTH Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

94 BUSMEDLF_NORTH Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

95 BUSMEDLF_SCENT Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

96 BUSMEDLF_SCENT Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

97 BUSMEDLF_SCENT Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

98 BUSMEDLF_SOUTH Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

99 BUSMEDLF_SOUTH Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

100 BUSMEDLF_SOUTH Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

101 BUSMEDLF_WEST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

102 BUSMEDLF_WEST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

103 BUSMEDLF_WEST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

BUSLOLF

105 BUSLOLF_COAST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

106 BUSLOLF_COAST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

107 BUSLOLF_COAST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

108 BUSLOLF_EAST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

109 BUSLOLF_EAST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

110 BUSLOLF_EAST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

111 BUSLOLF_FWEST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

112 BUSLOLF_FWEST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

113 BUSLOLF_FWEST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

114 BUSLOLF_NCENT Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

115 BUSLOLF_NCENT Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

116 BUSLOLF_NCENT Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

117 BUSLOLF_NORTH Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

118 BUSLOLF_NORTH Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

119 BUSLOLF_NORTH Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

120 BUSLOLF_SCENT Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

121 BUSLOLF_SCENT Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

122 BUSLOLF_SCENT Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

123 BUSLOLF_SOUTH Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

124 BUSLOLF_SOUTH Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

125 BUSLOLF_SOUTH Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

126 BUSLOLF_WEST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

127 BUSLOLF_WEST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

128 BUSLOLF_WEST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

BUSNODEM

130 BUSNODEM_COAST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

131 BUSNODEM_COAST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

132 BUSNODEM_COAST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

133 BUSNODEM_EAST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

134 BUSNODEM_EAST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

135 BUSNODEM_EAST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

136 BUSNODEM_FWEST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

137 BUSNODEM_FWEST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

138 BUSNODEM_FWEST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

139 BUSNODEM_NCENT Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

140 BUSNODEM_NCENT Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

141 BUSNODEM_NCENT Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

142 BUSNODEM_NORTH Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

143 BUSNODEM_NORTH Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

144 BUSNODEM_NORTH Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

145 BUSNODEM_SCENT Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

146 BUSNODEM_SCENT Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

147 BUSNODEM_SCENT Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

148 BUSNODEM_SOUTH Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

149 BUSNODEM_SOUTH Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

150 BUSNODEM_SOUTH Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

151 BUSNODEM_WEST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

152 BUSNODEM_WEST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

153 BUSNODEM_WEST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

154 Findings Treatment of Holidays as Sundays results in a higher R 2 for Residential Profiles Treatment of Holidays as Sundays has mixed R 2 results for Business Profiles (15 out of 32 groups with higher R 2 ) Treatment of Holidays as Sundays is the suggested methodology