Govert D. Geldof – Geldof c.s. (NL) & DTU Lyngby (DK) Swarm Planning and Wicked Problems SASBE09 – Delft, 16 June 2009

Observation 1

People

Observation 2

30 July hours

Kashafrood Groundwater Resources (The Main) Ground water recharge : 945 MCM/year Ground water extraction :1145 MCM/year Ground water deficit : -200 MCM/year W.L. Drawdown from 1963 to 1973 : 7 m (0.7 m/year) W.L. Drawdown from 1974 to 2002 : 33 m (1.2 m/year)

Catchmentarea Technique Society Observation Measures unsafe Societal feedback

Catchmentarea Technique Society Observations Adaptation safe Societal feedback

Catchmentarea Technique Society unsafe Societal feedback

The relationship between flood risk & society Multiple deprivation Flood risk areas

Observation 3

“ Legal talk what is crooked ”

Central statement When you fight complexity, it becomes more complicated

Social Complexity Theory When looking for change: look at the ‘edges’ Focus on ‘noise’ and emergent processes Tacit knowledge plays a significant role Ask yourselves the question: “How is knowledge organising?” instead of “How can we organise knowledge?” Etc.

Is Climate Change a Wicked Problem? Australian Public Services Commission (2007) Key Characteristics: 1.Difficult to clearly define problem 2.Many interdependencies and multi- causal 3.Attempts to address problem often leads to unforseen consequences 4.Problem is not stable 5.There is no clear solution 6.Problem is socially complex 7.Rarely the responsibility of any one organisation 8.Solution involves changing behaviour 9.Characterised by chronic policy failure

Accept wickedness (complexity) 1. Explore full range of aspects and human values 2. Do not try to optimise them, but organise a interdisciplinary learning process

Aspects (Values) Moral Legal Aesthetic Economic Social Linguistic Historical Logical Psychological Ecological Chemical Physical

Tame problem versus wicked problem

Emergent property

Final conclusion