Tammy M. Weckwerth Various Features Influencing Convection Initiation on 12 June 2002 during IHOP_2002* Tammy M. Weckwerth (NCAR) WWRP Symposium on Nowcasting.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

C. Flamant (1), C. Champollion (1,2), S. Bastin (1) and E. Richard (3) (1) Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, UPMC/CNRS/UVSQ (2) Géosciences Montpellier UM2/CNRS,

Advertisements

Mesoscale Features of the 31 January 2011 Oklahoma Storm Jennifer Newman School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma.

IHOP Science Meeting March 2003 Multi-Platform Observations of a Bore Event on 4 June during IHOP Steven E. Koch Frederic Fabry, Bart Geerts, Tammy.

Bores During IHOP_2002 and Speculation on Nocturnal Convection David B. Parsons, Crystal Pettet and June Wang NCAR/ATD Acknowledgements to Tammy Weckwerth,

Analysis of Rare Northeast Flow Events By Joshua Beilman and Stephanie Acito.

Detailed vertical structure of orographic precipitation development in cold clouds An illustration of high-resolution airborne mm-wave radar observations.

A Spatial Climatology of Convection in the Northeast U.S. John Murray and Brian A. Colle National Weather Service, WFO New York NY Stony Brook University,

DOW Observations in IHOP and Analyses of CI Yvette Richardson, Nettie Arnott and Joshua Wurman.

The Impact of Gravity Wave/Undular Bore Dissipation on the June 22, 2003 Deshler and Aurora Nebraska Tornadic Supercells AARON W. JOHNSON NOAA/NWS Weather.

21:50 UTC western dryline On the dynamics of drylines Fine-scale vertical structure of drylines during the International H 2 O Project (IHOP) as seen by.

An Overview of Environmental Conditions and Forecast Implications of the 3 May 1999 Tornado Outbreak Richard L. Thompson and Roger Edwards Presentation.

Bore mission of 4 June. First event Homestead observations only leading Homestead at 6:45 Z.

The Effect of the Terrain on Monsoon Convection in the Himalayan Region Socorro Medina 1, Robert Houze 1, Anil Kumar 2,3 and Dev Niyogi 3 Conference on.

Fine-Scale Observations of a Pre-Convective Convergence Line in the Central Great Plains on 19 June 2002 The Problem Questions: 1. How do mesoscale atmospheric.

Rapid Update Cycle Model William Sachman and Steven Earle ESC452 - Spring 2006.

THE BLACK FOREST STORM OF 15 JULY 2007: NUMERICAL SIMULATION AND SENSITIVITY STUDIES Evelyne Richard 1, Jean-Pierre Chaboureau 1 Cyrille Flamant 2 and.

Convective Initiation and Flow Regimes of Severe Storms Across the Central High Plains Scott F. Blair National Weather Service Goodland, Kansas.

Maintenance of a Mesoscale Convective System over Lake Michigan Nicholas D. Metz and Lance F. Bosart Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences University.

The Understanding Severe Thunderstorms and Alberta Boundary Layers Experiment (UNSTABLE): Overview and Preliminary Results Neil M. Taylor 1, D. Sills 2,

Roll or Arcus Cloud Squall Lines.

Roll or Arcus Cloud Supercell Thunderstorms.

Transition of Radar Refractivity to Operational Radars OS&T Briefing, 6 April 2004 Interested parties: NCAR, McGill University, NEXRAD Office of Science.

The NWS/NCAR “Forecaster Over the Loop” Fort Worth Operational Demonstration Human Enhancement of a Thunderstorm Nowcasting System Eric Nelson, Rita Roberts,

Improving Short-term Predictions and the Identification of Hazardous Weather using NASA/SPoRT Transitioned Satellite Products Deirdre Kann Brian Guyer.

What have we learned from the recent HyMeX field campaigns? What are the possible HyMeX contributions to T-NAWDEX 2016? What are the possible.

The Inland Extent of Lake- Effect Snow (LES) Bands Joe Villani NOAA/NWS Albany, NY Michael L. Jurewicz, Sr. NOAA/NWS Binghamton, NY Jason Krekeler State.

A Thunderstorm Nowcasting System for the Beijing 2008 Olympics: A U.S./China Collaboration by James Wilson 1 and Mingxuan Chen 2 1. National Center for.

Low level jet study from the ISS Zhaoxia Pu Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Utah ISS Winds Mission Science Workshop Miami, FL February.

Cloud Evolution and the Sea Breeze Front

THE LIFE CYCLE OF A BORE EVENT OVER THE US SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS DURING IHOP_ th ISTP, Leipzig, Germany, September 2003 C. Flamant 1, S. Koch.

Nowcasting Trends Past and Future By Jim Wilson NCAR 8 Feb 2011 Geneva Switzerland.

Lake Effect Storms. Lake Effect Storm Types Wind/Shear Parallel Bands Shore Parallel Bands –Shore based –Midlake Mesoscale Vortex.

Mesoscale Simulation of a Convective Frontal Passage Travis Swaggerty, Dorothea Ivanova and Melanie Wetzel Department of Applied Aviation Sciences Embry-Riddle.

Chapter 7: convective initiation

Flow Channeling in the Mohawk & Hudson Valleys A FURTHER INVESTIGATION OF MOHAWK HUDSON CONVERGENCE Tenth Annual Northeast Regional Operational Workshop/NWS/CESTM.

The Dryline The dryline can be defined as the near surface convergence zone between moist air flowing off the Gulf of Mexico and dry air flowing off of.

Convective Storm Forecasting 1-6 Hours Prior to Initiation Dan Lindsey and Louie Grasso NOAA/NESDIS/STAR/RAMMB and CIRA, Fort Collins, CO John Mecikalski,

Preliminary LES simulations with Méso-NH to investigate water vapor variability during IHOP_2002 F. Couvreux F. Guichard, V.

This is tes box Multi-scale Analyses of Moisture and Winds during the 3 and 9 June IHOP Low-Level Jet Cases Edward Tollerud, Fernando Caracena, Adrian.

Hurricane Karl’s landfall as seen by high-resolution radar data and WRF Jennifer DeHart and Robert Houze Cyclone Workshop NASA grants: NNX13AG71G.

Recent and Planned Updates to the NCAR Auto-Nowcast (ANC) System Thomas Saxen, Rita Roberts, Huaqing Cai, Eric Nelson, Dan Breed National Center for Atmospheric.

THE LIFE CYCLE OF A BORE EVENT OVER THE US SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS DURING IHOP_2002 IHOP Science workshop, Toulouse, June 2004 C. Flamant 1, S. Koch.

Moist processes involved in IOP13 and IOP16. Fanny DUFFOURG Olivier NUISSIER Christine LAC CNRM-GAME / Météo-France & CNRS HyMeX ST-WV meeting, Toulouse,

A JUNE MONSOON? David L. Mitchell 1, Dorothea Ivanova 1 and David Gochis 2 1.Desert Research Institute, Reno, Nevada 2. National Center for Atmospheric.

Modelling and observations of droplet growth in clouds A Coals 1, A M Blyth 1, J-L Brenguier 2, A M Gadian 1 and W W Grabowski 3 Understanding the detailed.

GOES Sounder Hyper-spectral Environmental Suite (HES) Data from the HES will revolutionize short-term weather forecasting Impact on short-term weather.

NOWCASTING PROBLEM IN A SUBTROPICAL AREA WITH COMPLEX TERRAIN: LESSON LEARNED FROM A FLASH FLOOD CASE WSN05, Toulouse France, September 2005 Ben Jong-Dao.

Conditions for Convection The Ingredients Method.

Analysis and Prediction of Convective Initiation on 24 May, 2002 June 14, 2004 Toulouse 2 nd IHOP_2002 Science Meeting Ming Xue, William Martin and Geoffrey.

The Characteristics of Line-Echo Wave Pattern Over the Ocean in the Subtropics Chih-Hsien Wei 1 Wen-Chau Lee 2 Tai-Hua Hor 1 Mao-Hsing Chang 3 1 National.

Numerical investigation of the multi-scale processes inducing convection initiation for the 12 June 2002 IHOP case study Preliminary study: testing the.

Michael Coniglio NSSL Stacey Hitchcock CSU Kent Knopfmeier CIMMS/NSSL 10/20/2015 IMPACT OF ASSIMILATING MPEX MOBILE UPSONDE OBSERVATIONS ON SHORT- TERM.

Chapter 7: convective initiation squall line development in Illinois a visible satellite image loop of CI in the eastern US 35°N 103°W Fig. 7.2.

A preliminary investigation of an atmospheric bore and a waves atop a cold front that moved across northern Alabama on 4 December 2008 Patrick Gatlin ATS.

Mobile Integrated Profiling System (MIPS) Observations of Boundary Layer and Water Vapor Variations around Boundaries and Storms Kevin Knupp University.

60 min Nowcasts 60 min Verification Cold Front Regime

Alan F. Srock and Lance F. Bosart

The May 24 Shamrock cold front

Overview of The International H2O Project (IHOP_2002)

Overview of IHOP-FRA activities including LEANDRE 2 analyses

Preliminary Analyses of S-Pol’s Refractivity Field

IHOP Scientific Workshop

IHOP Convection Initiation And Storm Evolution Studies

Nowcast guidance of afternoon convection initiation for Taiwan

Genesis and Morphology of the Alberta Dryline

Huaqing Cai NCAR/ASP/ATD Wen-Chau Lee Tammy M. Weckwerth NCAR/ATD

Rita Roberts and Jim Wilson National Center for Atmospheric Research

Moisture Variability and Nocturnal Convection

Radar Refractivity: validation and application to forecasting

Refractivity During IHOP_2002

Presentation transcript:

Tammy M. Weckwerth Various Features Influencing Convection Initiation on 12 June 2002 during IHOP_2002* Tammy M. Weckwerth (NCAR) WWRP Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting, Toulouse, France, 5-9 September 2005 *Work in Progress Hanne V. Murphey Cyrille Flamant Crystalyne R. Pettet Roger M. Wakimoto Sophie Bastin Hanne V. Murphey (UCLA) Cyrille Flamant (CNRS) Crystalyne R. Pettet (US NWS) Roger M. Wakimoto (NCAR) Sophie Bastin (NCAR)

GOES 11

Composite Radar

12 June 2002 Are the intersections between the waves and outflow preferred regions for CI? Why did CI occur here? Are the rolls a factor in CI? Does the mesolow play a role in CI?

2050 UTC CI 19 km from drop line

Incomplete soundings – only up to 6 km AGL (445 mb) No drops in CI air mass NE SW Outflow boundary Dropsonde Leg 2 – CAPE & CIN

ELDORA Observations of Waves ELDORA 900 m AGL Gravity waves in all fields: λ = 6-8 km Consistent with P-3, MIPS, GOES-11 and radar dBZ e vrvr div vort

ELDORA and Leandre II Wave Impacts ELDORA and Leandre II 400 m AGL Periodic signature in q, div and vort: λ=6-8 km km

OK Mesonet – 18 UTC – Mesolow Impact LLJ feeding region of interest Dewpoints in the high 60s and low 70s Freedom

Wind Direction Wind Speed Mixing Ratio Moisture Convergence Freedom, OK Mesonet Mesolow Impact Local increase in southerly flow, perhaps due to mesolow – not observed further south Increase in moisture convergence

Roll Observations ELDORA reflectivity and 400 m AGL 1.1 km in situ fields show rolls (λ~3.6 km) SE of TP q θ w 10 km

Preliminary results Mesolow may have aided in enhancing moisture convergence in CI region. Waves sampled by ground-based radar, satellite, in situ P-3, low-level MIPS w, ELDORA. Suggestion of Leandre II mixing ratio modulation caused by waves – may be important for CI. Rolls observed near CI location with radar and in-situ P-3 – may be important for CI.*

GOES-11 Cloud Tracking 1 st clouds formed along rolls Northern cloud formed near wave/outflow intersection

Ongoing work Closely examine ELDORA and Leandre II measurements near CI location Modeling study by Sophie Bastin (presented next)

Thank you.