ADVANCED DIAGNOSTICS CONTINUING TO MEET TECHNOLOGY DEMANDS

Advanced Diagnostics eXpress Advanced Diagnostics  Covers All Product Design Phases Diagnostics Analysis from Proposal to Operations & SupportDiagnostics Analysis from Proposal to Operations & Support Ensures Product Design Meets Full systems RequirementsEnsures Product Design Meets Full systems Requirements  Provides an integrated Systems Process Network All Design Disciplines Can Work TogetherAll Design Disciplines Can Work Together Provides Balanced Design VS. BudgetProvides Balanced Design VS. Budget  Receives Requirements and Drives Design for: Prognostics Candidates, Sensor Placement, Test Strategies and Maintenance ImpactPrognostics Candidates, Sensor Placement, Test Strategies and Maintenance Impact Production Level of Test for Operational ConfidenceProduction Level of Test for Operational Confidence Logistics Level of Repair and Support Trade StudiesLogistics Level of Repair and Support Trade Studies Software Test Code DevelopmentSoftware Test Code Development Run-Time Reasoner DevelopmentRun-Time Reasoner Development

Advanced Diagnostics eXpress Advanced Diagnostics  Focus Proactive Design Drivers  Maps Failure Effects at Any system Level to Lowest Level Failure Mode  Provides High Confidence Observation and Isolation Capability for Discrete and Incipient Failures Covers RCM, and CBM With Feedback From Prognostics AnalysisCovers RCM, and CBM With Feedback From Prognostics Analysis  Enables Business Case Models for Effective Proactive Maintenance VS. Running to Failure

Requirements Reliability Maintainability Safety Maintenance Planning Design CONOPS Run Time System IETM Training SE Supply Support Supply Chain Model IVHM / IPHM Model Development LSA LORA LCC TOC CAIV Funct Concepts Drivers for Fault Group Size & Partitioning Ops Requirements States / Phases Functionality Dependencies Tests, etc Critical Funct Severity Failure Rates FMECA Input Maint Times & Constraints Design & Support Trade Studies OPS&SUPTLIFECYCLEOPS&SUPTLIFECYCLE FULL SYSTEMS DESIGN AND SUPPORT INTERGRATION

EMERGING RISK  Today’s Large Focus on Post-Design Health Management is Clouding the Design for Health Management Proactive maintenance is importantProactive maintenance is important Independent Trend Analysis does not support today’s Prognostics RequirementsIndependent Trend Analysis does not support today’s Prognostics Requirements Physics of Failure is leading Prognostics technologyPhysics of Failure is leading Prognostics technology  Must be selective due to model development time, high cost and technical feasibility  Must be integrated with the Advanced Diagnostics Process Attempting to Drive Health Management into a Prognostics Centric Technology is a High Risk Trend

T f = Time of Failure T d = Time of Prognostics Detection Failed = 100% Failure Detected = % at which insipient failure recognized Time to Failure = T f – T d Prognostics from Detection to Action prior to Failure Not a linear curve Large environmental and operational mode Dependency maintenance action impacts T d & T f Does not consider secondary stress Resolution in dynamic environment can not meet today’s requirements (FCS = 10 hours prior to failure) Must trade criticality against cost and Run to Failure with high FD / FI probability

Advanced Diagnostics Process eXpress Advanced Diagnostics Prognostics Prognostic Candidates Sensor & Test Definitions Design Knowledge Insipient Event Trigger Point Run-Time Reasoners (Health Management / PS-MRS) Enhanced Maintenance

Standardize Cost Analysis and Control through the eXpress Diagnostics Analysis Process  The eXpress Diagnostics Analysis Process provides: Accurate metrics on Fault Isolation Probabilities to a defined system / assembly / component levelAccurate metrics on Fault Isolation Probabilities to a defined system / assembly / component level Support to cost benefit studiesSupport to cost benefit studies  Critical Item Remediation  O&S level of repair  Reduced O&S skill level requirements Validated design test capabilities prior to full production and O&SValidated design test capabilities prior to full production and O&S

Conclusion  Funding and Development of Prognostics Technology is important to meet the needs of new system and program requirements  This needs to be accomplished without compromising the confidence of integrated systems diagnostics  Funding and further development of Advanced Diagnostics is needed to make everything work together  “Don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater”