American Government and Organization PS1301 Wednesday, 29 October.

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Presentation transcript:

American Government and Organization PS1301 Wednesday, 29 October

How do people decide? The Michigan Model (prospective model) Party identification Candidate characteristics Issue positions

Influence of Party Id

Requirements for Issue Voting Aware of the issue Care about the issue Perceive difference between the candidates Correct about the difference

Criteria for Issue Voting

Dynamics of 2000 Presidential Campaign Source: Johnston and Hagen (APSA 2003) “Priming and Learning: Evidence from the 2000 Annenberg Study”

Character

Perception of Gore’s Honesty

Traits of Candidates

Retrospective Voting Party identification Evaluation of the past economic indicators economic indicators Wars WarsIncumbency

Race and Gender

Religion Bush Gore Nader

Education and Income

Unions and Religion Bush Gore Nader

How do Presidential Elections and Congressional Elections Differ? Presidential elections are more salient The average voter has more information about the presidential candidates than congressional candidates. Consequently, party identification may play a lesser role in pres. elections Voters are more inclined to be influenced by personal/candidate characteristics and issue voting may be more prevalent.

Congressional Elections The empirical evidence suggests that party labels are have a greater effect when information about the candidate is low U.S. Rep U.S. Rep State Senator State Senator St. Assy. St. Assy. County Board County Board

Congressional Elections Decline in party id means that other cues become more important Incumbency Name recognition

Rise of Split Ticket Voting