Ben Brooks James Foster, Cecily Wolfe David Sandwell, David Myer Mike Poland, Matt Patrick, Paul Okubo The Father’s Day 2007 Intrusion At Kilauea: Chickens,

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Presentation transcript:

Ben Brooks James Foster, Cecily Wolfe David Sandwell, David Myer Mike Poland, Matt Patrick, Paul Okubo The Father’s Day 2007 Intrusion At Kilauea: Chickens, Eggs, Dikes, And Slow Earthquakes

So What ? Slow Earthquakes Being Recognized as Fundamental Part of the Seismic Cycle Cascadia, Japan, Mexico, Alaska, San Andreas, Hawaii Periodicity Observed Cascadia, Mexico, Hawaii No General Theory for Slow Earthquakes and/or Periodicity Rate & State Friction RSF modified by climatic fluctuations (Lowry, 2006) TODAY’s TALK: Review Kilauea Deformation and Slow Earthquakes Father’s Day Intrusion and Evidence For Slow Earthquake Stress Modeling  Explanation for Periodicity Due to Constant Stressing Rate

Cascadia Slow Earthquakes From Rogers&Dragert, 2003 From Miller et al., 2002

Seismicity (<10km) & CGPS Deformation Kilauea Caldera SWRZ Hilina Slump ERZ HP

The Hilina Slump From Morgan et al., 2003 Owen et al, Stable Sliding of Entire Decollement Cayol et al., Decollement Locked seaward of EQs

Competing Models Cayol et al. 2000: EXPLAINS SEISMICITY

Magmatism & Stress From Cayol et.al, 2000  c  n

Time Series 774+/-7 Next SE Expected March 17, 2007

Slow Earthquakes: 2 Families Triggered Seismicity

Earthquake Counts – Western Events From Brooks et.al, 2006

Possible SE Sources & Triggered Seismicity From Brooks et.al, 2006

Coulomb Failure Stress from Slow Earthquakes From Segall et.al, 2000 BACKGROUND STRESSES ARE NEGLECTED

From Wolfe et.al, submitted

Earthquake Relocations From Wolfe et.al, submitted

Relocations: Cross Sections From Wolfe et.al, submitted

USGS & NSF Experiment: Feb – July, 2007 (USGS, UH, U Wisconsin, Stanford)

ALOS: Line of Sight

Competing Models

Far-field residuals close to zero

Slow Earthquakes & Dikes

Competing Models

Vertical Results

Vertical Results: June 2007

Tilt Meters

Periodic Slow Earthquake Comparison Guerrero data courtesy T. Lowry

From Sykes & Menke, 2006 Kilauea Cascadia Guerrero

An Explanation for Why and When ? WAOP HALR NUPM KTPM UWEV AHUP

ERZ O PENING (1998-Present) (Cortesy Katie Phillips, Dave Chadwell, SCRIPPS)

Stress Models

Constant Stressing Rate SE

Complete Stressing Cycle

So What ? Father’s Day intrusion triggered another Slow Earthquake at Kilauea Delayed, but still the most regular faulting event ever observed instrumentally (I think) The Cayol et al. (2000) model combined with a constant stressing rate provides a simple explanation of periodicity What’s next? Hope for a rate change along East Rift Zone to test the constant stressing rate hypothesis