CEEN 590 Course Review, Energy Transitions, Conclusion 1

Outline Review of course Energy Transitions Mobilizing action on climate Themes 2

First half Week 1 Course overview Week 2: Sustainable Energy as a Social and Political Challenge Week 3: Formal Government Processes Week 4: Policy process, Actor Dynamics Week 5: Policy Analysis in a Political Context Week 6: Policy Instruments Week 7: Energy Planning and Approval 3

Second half Week 8: Midterm Exam Week 9: The Two Giants: Energy Policy in China and the US Week 10: Case Studies in Policy Innovation Week 11: Simulated Multi-stakeholder Consultation Week 12: Synthesis, Reflection 4

Discussion What should be covered that we didn’t address? What should be reduced or eliminated to make room for new stuff? 5

Assignments Midterm Simulation and paper – is acting like an advocate an important learning experience? 6

pedagogy 7

Smil on Energy Transitions (1) The inherently slow pace of energy transitions Definition: energy transition encompasses the time that elapses between the introduction of a new primary energy source (coal, oil, nuclear electricity, wind captured by large turbines) and its rise to claiming a substantial (15%) share of the overall market Energy sources vs prime movers 8

Smil on Energy Transitions (2) Past transitions have take ~ half century Explanation: essentially a socio-technical system path-dependence argument (carbon lock-in) Logistical challenges mean plans for transition are a “grand delusion” Jacobson and Delucchi “fairy tale” – Note: their 2009 version was all energy by 2030; 2010 was all new by 2030, all by

Is there any reason to expect the next energy transition could be faster than the previous? because it better be…. 10

Outline Review of course Energy Transitions Mobilizing action on climate Themes 11

Puzzle: – Consensus in science community about serious of problem and urgent need to address it – Lack of awareness and motivation among public and lack of political action Psychology helps explain – climate change fails to activate our moral intuitions Sustainable Energy Policy12

Sustainable Energy Policy13

Sustainable Energy Policy14

Themes Climate (clean energy) challenge compounded by temporal and spatial inconsistency Motivated reasoning: people filter facts through the values/worldview – convincing people with factual reason when implications conflict with their values is a major challenge 15

Themes Authority: ability to make rules backed up by coercive power of the state – Found in formal rules and procedures – understanding them in a necessary step in influence – Who decides? At what level? Power/influence: ability to influence outcomes – More diverse sources 16

Themes Fundamentals to analysis – Problem definition – Criteria – Alternatives – Consequences – Trade-offs 17

Themes There are a variety of instruments available in clean energy policy, and they come with a different package of attributes and consequences 18

Themes Nuclear power is low GHG but costly and comes with distinctive real and perceived risks Project planning and approval is complex and there are frequently tradeoffs between quality and coherence on the one hand and political realities on the other 19

Themes Different countries face different challenges because of different – resource endowments – policy legacies – political cultures – Institutions Where it has been introduced, policy has been effective at increasing RE penetration but not yet at a scale or rate consistent with what is needed to reach climate goals 20

Role of technology 21

Concluding Theme 1 Sustainable energy requires that prices reflect their true environmental and social cost Government action is required to internalize costs Policy is made by politicians whose core interest is reelection, which discourages them from imposing costs Sustainable Energy Policy22

Climate politics dilemma Transition to clean energy is feasible and affordable But…we are stuck Requires politicians to raise energy prices Which is improbable without intense social pressure 23

Energy system transformation: technically feasible and economic affordable Confidence in one or both instruments to price carbon: – Economy wide carbon tax – Economy wide cap and trade Supplementary policies – Energy R&D – Regulations to foster sector specific change 24

Affordability – world’s leading environmental economist “Slowing of climate change to meet the Copenhagen objective of a 2°C limit or something close to it would be a feasible objective. Estimates from economic models suggest that attaining this goal would take between 1 and 2 percent of world income on an annual basis.” William Nordhaus, Yale University economist Sustainable Energy Policy25

Affordability: IPCC

Concluding Theme (2) There is a profound tension between the incentives of politicians to avoid imposing costs and the need to use government action to increase prices Sustainable Energy Policy27

Overcoming obstacles – 2 paths Politicians “lead” – move beyond electorate Or Electorate creates incentives for politicians to act – Organize – Mobilize 28

Advocacy Alert! My Leap of Faith Acting according to short term material interest won’t solve the problem Act because it is the right thing to do

Tahrir Square, February 11, 2011

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