US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG ® Corps of Engineers Omaha District Forecast Update Brian Twombly Kellie Bergman January 2010 Jay Lincoln.

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Presentation transcript:

US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG ® Corps of Engineers Omaha District Forecast Update Brian Twombly Kellie Bergman January 2010 Jay Lincoln

BUILDING STRONG ® Volumetric Water Supply Forecasts  Bureau of Reclamation projects  Joint-use/flood control storage needed for expected runoff volume ► Clark Canyon Dam, MT 50,000 acre-feet ► Canyon Ferry Dam, MT 795,000 acre-feet ► Tiber Dam, MT 260,000 acre-feet ► Boysen Dam, WY 145,000 acre-feet ► Yellowtail Dam, WY 240,000 acre-feet  Informational purposes only ► Glendo Dam, WY

BUILDING STRONG ® Multi-Variable Linear Regression  Computing April to July “natural” inflow volume to the project.  Independent predictor variables: 1.Antecedent conditions 2.The basin average snow water equivalent (SWE) 3.Spring-season precipitation

BUILDING STRONG ® Example of Volumetric Water Supply Forecast (Canyon Ferry Reservoir) IF = 2.023(ANTON) (SAPR) (PREAMJ) IF = The forecasted natural April through July inflow volume to Canyon Ferry in MAF. ANTON = The natural October and November antecedent runoff volume in MAF. SAPR = The average April 1 snowpack water content in inches of 9 snotel stations. PREAMJ = The average monthly precipitation in inches for 9 stations for each month of April, May, and June.

BUILDING STRONG ® Forecast Improves as Season Progresses and More Data becomes Available Standard ForecastError of EquationR-SquaredEstimate Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

BUILDING STRONG ® Model Development Using ARRA Funding  Modeling is overseen by the USACE Hydrologic Engineering Center  West Consultants in San Diego, CA  Modeling three different locations: ► Chatfield Dam in Denver, CO ► Fall River near Hot Springs, SD ► James River upstream of Lamoure, ND

BUILDING STRONG ®

Fall River Basin, HEC-HMS models.

BUILDING STRONG ® Fall River Basin, HEC-HMS models for the Cold Brook and Cottonwood Reservoir Basins.

BUILDING STRONG ® James River Basin, HEC-HMS models for the Jamestown Reservoir Basin and downstream of the reservoir to Lamoure, ND.

BUILDING STRONG ® Chatfield Dam, HEC-HMS models for the Chatfield Basin and downstream to the Henderson Stream Gage in the South Platte River and HEC ResSim model for Chatfield Reservoir.