DRM-SD: Risk and Disaster Defined DRM-SD Learning Lab Freedom Hotel, Siem Reap, Cambodia 2-4 February 2016 Prof. K. Koshy Centre for Global Sustainability Studies (CGSS) Universiti Sains Malaysia

Triple Bottom Line Model - SD

Strong Sustainability Model - SD

Risk-Disaster: Game 1 ferocious, dog, boy, school, afraid, bite, road, father, community leaders, dog owner, chain, weak, house, strong, situation, car, risk, friends, happy, pole…

Risk-Disaster: Game 2 hazard, exposure unit, capacity, vulnerable, risk, impacts, disaster, coping, strategy, mitigation, great, minimise, adaptation, improved, happy…

Hazard: a potentially damaging physical event, phenomenon, or human activity that may cause injury, property damage, social and economic disruption, environmental degradation or loss of life. Hazard

Impact: the manifestation (realisation) of the destructive forces of hazards that destroy life and properties. Impact

Exposure units: the sectors or groups that are impacted upon. - Stronger the coping capacity, weaker the impact - Exposure Units

Capacity: a combination of all the strengths and resources available within a community, society or organization that can reduce the level of risk or the effects of a disaster. Capacity

Vulnerability: the conditions determined by physical, social, economic and environmental factors or processes which increase the susceptibility (inability to withstand) of a community to the impact of hazards. (Antonym – Resilient) Vulnerability

Risk: the probability (likely, ‘chance’) of harmful consequences, or expected losses/damage (injuries, property, livelihood, economic activity disrupted or environment damaged, deaths) resulting from interaction between natural or human-induced hazards and vulnerable exposure units. Risk

Disaster: “a serious disruption of the functioning of society, causing widespread human, material or environmental losses which exceed the capacity of exposure units to cope using only its own resources.” Disaster

Disaster is “Realised Risk” …Risk equations => Disaster

Risk Management 2/3 Risk Management 2/3 ISDR Risk Equation: Hazard x Vulnerability = Risk Capacity Realised Risk is Disaster

Risk Management 1/3 Risk Management 1/3 Hazard - Mitigation = Vulnerability Realised Risk is Disaster

Risk Management 3/3 Impact - Adaptation = Vulnerability Realised Risk is Disaster

Response Measures Mitigation: source ↓ & sink ↑ Adaptation: coping with consequences

…the Risk that still remains after all response measures… Residual Risk

x1x1 Frequency Climate variable (e.g. precipitation) wetter drier Adaptation

x1x1 Adapted ( autonomously ) Climate variable (e.g. precipitation) Frequency drierr wetter

Adapted ( autonomously ) Adapted (explicitly) x1x1 Climate variable (e.g. precipitation) Frequency P1P1 P2P2 x2x2 Climate Change “ Acceptable Risk” threshold

Adapted ( autonomously ) Adapted (explicitly) x1x1 Climate variable (e.g. precipitation) Frequency P1P1 P2P2 x2x2 Adapted to Climate Change

CC Adaptation – AR5, 2014

Year Vulnerability/Risk ‘Business as usual’ Growth Required by sustainable development Technical solutions Two bridges are needed to close the vulnerability/risk gap Technical bridge Ethical bridge

SUMMARY of the Hyogo Framework for Action : Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters (HFA)

Thank You

Restaurant not making profit profit Few new customers + Few returning customers Unappealing surroundings and menu + Poor marketing strategy Poor marketing strategyRestaurantmaking profit profit Many new customers + Many returning customers Appealing surroundings and menu + Good marketing strategy Good marketing strategy Activities Objective TreeProblem Tree Cause - Effect LOGICAL FRAMEWORK ANALYSIS

The Triple Bottom Line of SD