Methodology for the compilation and estimation of of WTO’s merchandise trade statistics.

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Presentation transcript:

Methodology for the compilation and estimation of of WTO’s merchandise trade statistics

Long tradition in compilation of trade statistics Purpose: -To satistisfy the statistical needs of member States -To support negotiations and dispute settlement -To assess developments in world trade

Availability: -At the total level : Imports and exports by country, WTO defined regions and world -World merchandise trade network -Estimates by WTO defined product groupings

Timing: March: Preceding years’ estimate of total world merchandise trade June: revision and updates August: - World trade network - By product for selected countries

Sources: - Total trade: National statistical offices, IMF’s International Financial Statistics the Eurostat, COMEXT; UNSD, Comtrade and MBS Supplemented by -Regional and specialized agencies: UEMOA, ECLAC, FAO, OECD, CIS, OPEC -Private sources: GTA, EIU, MEED -By product&partner: Comtrade,Eurostat -Commodity prices of the IMF

Data availability: -Noticeable improvement -Dissemination through official websites - Availability of private databases - Relative ease of access to national agencies through s As a result: reduction in estimates or better estimates Leading to improvement in data quality

Filling missing gap: -Extrapolation method: when data for most months or quarters of the year are available -Application of mirror statistics growth rates -Derived value growth: for countries with high degree of product concentration -Commodity prices, global economic developments, exchange rate movements etc

Estimation of world trade: -Summing up the regional totals -Regional totals: sum of component countries Exception: imports of Europe are adjusted. Intra-EU imports replaced by intra-EU exports

Estimation of the world export network by product group and region - Based on export data -Regional total exports decomposed by destination and product. -Breakdown based on data from Comtrade, Eurostat and GTA - Adjustment : ships to open registry countries of Panama and Liberia, goods from EPZs

Inter-agency Common Data Set A collaborative project of Eurostat, OECD, UNSD, UNCTAD and WTO on total merchandise exports and imports by country according to international guidelines as specified in UNSD, IMTS, Rev.2

© WTO/OMC11 The Common Data Set Why: different values for the same observation Primary objective: data reconciliation among international organisations NEW aspect: database disseminated online Officially reported data Reconciled data Documentation on reconciliation Initiative by the Task Force on Merchandise Trade Statistics

CDS: PRODUCTION PROCESS Provision of data Eurostat (EU members), OECD (OECD countries excl. EU), UNCTAD (LDCs), UNSD, WTO Officially reported data and DPO’s estimates Data validation A co-ordinated by WTO Web dissemination CDS Layer 1: Officially reported data Reconciliation all, co-ordinated by WTO Problematic data Officially reported data Comments and proposed corrections Proposed adjustments and estimates Web dissemination CDS Layer 2: Reconciled data Agreed adjustments and estimates No dissemination Rejected adjustments and estimates Data validation B all

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