Dr. Terry Clower Director, Center for Economic Development and Research University of North Texas The Next Hundred Million And The Next Six Million – or more Population Trends in the US and North Texas

Areas of Influence

The Texas Triangle Location: Eastern Texas Principal Cities: Austin, Dallas/Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio Population 2000: 16,131,347 Population 2050: 35 million

Projected Ethnicity Change in the U.S. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2004

Age-Sex Structure of U.S. Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Regional Population Absolute Change: 3,458,166 3,458,166 Percent Change: % % Average Decennial Growth: 864, ,542 (2½ Arlingtons!) (2½ Arlingtons!)

Population Growth in NCT, Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections

Population Growth in Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington MSA, ( Migration Scenario) County Collin144,576264,036491,675762,0103,254,286 Dallas1,556,3901,852,8102,218,8992,412,8273,143,670 Delta4,8394,8575,3275,4584,111 Denton143,126273,525432,976636,5572,662,912 Ellis59,74385,167111,360148,186438,733 Hunt55,24864,34376,59682,805158,239 Johnson67,64997,165126,811153,630457,403 Kaufman39,01552,22071,313100,527386,593 Parker44,60964,78588,495111,776280,838 Rockwall14,52825,60443,08077,633510,061 Tarrant860,8801,170,1031,446,2191,750,0913,917,570 Wise26,57534,67948,79358,50697,406 Total3,017,1783,989,2945,161,5446,300,00615,311,822 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau Counts; 2008 Census Bureau Estimates; 2040: State Data Center Migration Scenario Projection

Population Growth in Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington by Area, County Number of Inhabitants by Area Dallas1,556,3901,852,8102,218,8992,412,827 3,143,670 Tarrant 860,8801,170,1031,446,2191,750,091 3,917,570 Others 599, ,3811,496,4262,137,088 8,250,582 Total3,017,1783,989,2945,161,5446,300,00615,311,822 Percent of Population in Area Dallas Tarrant Others Total 100 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau Counts; 2008 Census Bureau Estimates; 2040: State Data Center Migration Scenario Projection

Age-Sex Structure of NCT, 2008 and Projected 2040 (Scenario ) Source: Census Bureau 2008 Population Estimates; Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections

Projected Ethnic Change in the North Central Texas, Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario

Percentage of NCT Population by Ethnicity at Each Age, 2000 Source: Texas State Data Center At age 0: % Anglo: 60 % Hispanic: 21 At age 85+: % Anglo: 86 %Hispanic: 4

Percentage of NCT Population by Ethnicity at Each Age, 2040 Source: Texas State Data Center Population Projections, Migration Scenario

Conclusions Population of the Texas Triangle will more than double by 2050 Population of the Texas Triangle will more than double by 2050 Population of DFW MSA will more than double by 2040 Population of DFW MSA will more than double by 2040 Anglos are still the U.S. majority in 2050 Anglos are still the U.S. majority in 2050 Hispanics will be majority in NCT by 2033 with 0.5 migration scenario Hispanics will be majority in NCT by 2033 with 0.5 migration scenario Most of U.S. pop young adults to middle aged (20-44yrs) in 2050 Most of U.S. pop young adults to middle aged (20-44yrs) in 2050 Most of NCT population is middle aged (35-49 yrs) by 2040 Most of NCT population is middle aged (35-49 yrs) by 2040 Contact info: Terry L. Clower, Ph.D. Director, Center for Economic Development and Research University of North Texas (940)