Vermont Economy Newsletter Long Term Demographic Changes and Economic Problems in Vermont by Art Woolf New England Federal Credit Union March 22, 2006.

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Presentation transcript:

Vermont Economy Newsletter Long Term Demographic Changes and Economic Problems in Vermont by Art Woolf New England Federal Credit Union March 22, 2006

Vermont Economy Newsletter Short Term Economy Slow, steady, very modest job growth Incomes are healthy in Vermont Housing prices are high and prices will slow

Vermont Economy Newsletter In the Longer Term, A Specter is Haunting Vermont… In the Longer Term, A Specter is Haunting Vermont… Fewer Babies… Means Fewer School Kids… And Fewer Workers… And a Lot More Older People …and the implications are profound

Vermont Economy Newsletter To Understand the Future, Look Backwards… ….About 10,000 Years

Vermont Economy Newsletter From the Beginning of Rime Until 1800: A High Birth Rate - High Death Rate Population Equilibrium 1800: The Demographic Transition Begins in the West Mid 20 th Century: The Demographic Transition Hits the Third World Mid 21 st Century: The World Is At a Low Birthrate, Low Death Rate Equilibrium

Vermont Economy Newsletter A Stylized View of the Demographic Transition

Vermont Economy Newsletter The Big Issue in the Near Term Future for VT: Slow Population Growth

Vermont Economy Newsletter Vermont’s Recent Population History is Unusual

Vermont Economy Newsletter Reasons for the Growth Slowdown: Low Birth Rate Low Net In-migration Few International Immigrants

Vermont Economy Newsletter VT’s Future Does Not Look Like the US

Vermont Economy Newsletter Vermont Will Look Like Florida

Vermont Economy Newsletter 1. Vermont Loses Working Age Population

Vermont Economy Newsletter 2. School Age Population Shrinks as Total Population Slowly Rises

Vermont Economy Newsletter 3. Vermont Will Become Old

Vermont Economy Newsletter The Result: Major Changes in Dependency Ratios

Vermont Economy Newsletter Challenges of Demographic Change How will schools adjust? How will firms adjust to labor force stagnation? How will financial institutions adapt? How will state respond to changing fiscal demands

Vermont Economy Newsletter The Fiscal Implications Are Not Pretty

Vermont Economy Newsletter Solutions? Two models for Vermont: FranceSingapore Planning vs spontaneous order

Vermont Economy Newsletter

Job Growth Will Be Slow as Demographic Changes Begin to be Felt

Vermont Economy Newsletter Income Growth is Healthy

Vermont Economy Newsletter Housing Affordability is Not Bad

Vermont Economy Newsletter The Actual Numbers: World Population Growth 2000 BC to 2000 AD

Vermont Economy Newsletter …And the World Got Richer

Vermont Economy Newsletter

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