Population and Employment Trends in Florida University Center Club, Pensacola Room Florida State University May 6th, 2009 LeRoy Collins Institute LeRoy Collins Institute ~ Carol Weissert, Ph. D., Director FSU Campus ~ 506 W Pensacola Street Tallahassee FL ~ fax

Population and Employment Trends in Florida Elisabeth Mercer and Darryl Crawford, FSU Demography Masters Program Directed by Melanie Simmons PhD FSU Center for Demography and Population Health

Significant Variation within the Counties in Florida Fast and slow growing counties Diverse ethnically and racially Diverse age structure Employment shifts Earnings and Poverty

Agenda Elisabeth Population trends –Components of change, migration Race and Ethnicity –Blacks and Hispanics Age structure –Young, old, and working age Darryl Employment –Growth and change –Public and private employment Wages –Income associated with Jobs Household Income and Poverty

Population Trends Growing at faster rates than US Fastest Growth Rate Regions: –East Central Florida –Southwest Florida –Withlacoochee Slowest Growth Rate Regions: –South Florida –Tampa Bay –Apalachee Range of % Change for Regions, % Change by County, Census, 2009

Population Forecasts Growth rates expected to continually decline Fastest expected growth rates: –Withlacoochee –Southwest Florida –Northeast Florida Slowest expected growth rates: –South Florida –Apalachee –Tampa Bay BEBR, 2009 Very diverse county level forecasts –Two counties expected to decline –Two counties expected to double Projected Counties to Decline,

Net Migration Fluctuations through time do not affect overall Florida population Most regions experienced a decline in net migration from –Withlahoochee has experienced declining growth rates since 1980 Counties, such as Taylor and Gadsden, have experienced extreme growth in net migration from EDR, 2009

Race and Ethnicity Changes Blacks increasing at faster rates than Whites at the state level Regions are diverse in their growth rates by race Hispanics are increasing at extraordinary rates –29 counties over doubled their Hispanic populations from –47 counties over doubled their Hispanic populations from Census, 2009

Age Structure

BEBR, 2009

School Aged Children Declining at the state level and the regional level, except South Florida Declining at the county level, except for Broward, Charlotte, Osceola, and Pasco counties are increasing in their proportion of <18 Census, 2009

School Enrollment Census, 2009

Elderly, 65+ Decreasing proportions of the population at the state level Variation in growth rate trends at the regional level –Tampa Bay, South Florida, Treasure Coast declining rates –Rising rates for others –Bowing effect 47 of the 67 counties have increasing rates of growth Census, 2009

Working Age, Increasing proportions of the population at the state and regional level –Apalachee had the largest proportion of population in the age group –Southwest Florida had the smallest proportion of population in the age group Six counties experienced decline in the working age group Census, 2009