1 GFNORTE 2Q04 Results
2 Contents 1.GFNorte in the Industry 2.GFNorte’s Results 3.Banking Sector’s Results 4.Long Term Savings Sector’s Results 5.Economic Outlook
3 1. GFNorte in the Industry
4 BRANCHES BanamexBanorte HSBCSantander BBVA- Bancomer Scotiabank 25% 15% 20% 14% 20% 6% 4° 24% 16% 19% 13% 21% 5% 1Q03 1Q04 ASSETS 26% 12% BanamexBanorte 11% HSBCSantander 16% 4° 5% Scotiabank BBVA- Bancomer 28% 12% 10% 14% 5% 30% Banorte vs. Industry
5 CAPITALIZATION 18% BBVA - Bancomer 15% Scotiabank 16% HSBCBanorte 15% 3° Santander 11% Banamex 12% 14% 13% 16% 13% 14% 12% Banorte vs. Industry 1Q03 1Q04
6 4Q01 1Q04 CORE DEPOSITS Deposits Market Share 29% 27% 6% 10% 6% 29% 24% 5% BBVA Bancomer BanamexBanorteScotiabank 5° 13% 15% HSBC 16% 15% Santander Serfin TOTAL DEPOSITS 28% 22% 6% 15% 13% 5% 16% 28% 22% 5% BBVA Bancomer BanamexSantander Serfin BanorteScotiabank 5° 16% HSBC
7 4Q01 1Q04 COMMERCIAL LOANS Loans Market Share PERFORMING LOANS 29% 6% 9% 8% 9% 22% 25% 10% BBVA Bancomer BanamexSantander Serfin HSBCScotiabank 12% 9% Banorte 3° 24% 26% 8% 5% 11% 9% 23% 15% 7% 6% BBVA Bancomer BanamexSantander Serfin BanorteHSBCScotiabank 4°
8 2. GFNorte’s Results
9 1, % % 41% 6.0% 116% 1, % % 17% 3.6% 131% 1H041H03 4%38% Net Income Annualized ROE Stock Price EPS P/BV Capitalization Ratio Loan growth w/o IPAB Past due loan ratio w/o IPAB Reserve Coverage Highlights MILLIONS OF PESOS
10 GFNorte’s Income MILLIONS OF PESOS 2Q03 Banking Long – Term Savings Auxiliary Organizations Holding GFNORTE ,087 33Brokerage House (9) 1, (4) Q041H H03 2%4%
11 3. Banking Sector’s Results
12 MILLIONS OF PESOS Income Statement 2Q032Q04Var %1H031H04Var % Net Interest Income after REPOMO 2,0702,0921%4,4124,108(7%) Services %1,0001,39940% Recovery % % Foreign Exchange % % Trading ( Securities- Realized and unrealized gains ) 280(87)(131%)400198(50%) Non Interest Income 1,001912(9%)1,7992,12418% Total Income 2,7062,8556%5,5705,9657% Non Interest Expense (2,311)(2,358)2%(4,612)(4,811)4% Net Operating Income %9581,15420% Non Operating Income (Expense) Net %(51)(30)(41%) Income Tax,profit sharing, Undistrib. Earnings of Subsidiaries (*) (15)(62)327%20(84)(520%) Total Net Income %9271,03912% Loan Loss and Loss Sharing Provisions (365)(149)(59%)(642)(267)(58%) (*) Includes extraordinary items and minority interest.
13 NIM vs. CETES Q032Q033Q034Q031Q042Q CETES NIM
14 … AS % OF EXPENSES 41% 32% 44% 33% H04 31% 25% 34% 26% H04 … AS % OF TOTAL INCOME Non Interest Income
H Expenses BILLIONS OF PESOS 78% 87% 77% 81% H04 EFFICIENCY RATIO Personnel O & A VAT & IPAB Rent, depreciation & amortization
Q04 Bank Afore Insurance MILLIONS Total Customers
H04 Bank Brokerage House Assets Under Management Total Resources from Customers BILLIONS OF PESOS
18 Deposits2Q033Q034Q032Q04 Demand Deposits Time Deposits33 34 Total Deposits Mix 64% 67%65% 36% 33%35% 100% 1Q % 35% 100% Core Deposits (Billions of Pesos) Demand Deposits Time Deposits
19 8% 11% 5% ANNUAL GROWTH (2Q04 VS. 2Q03) Demand Deposits Time Deposits Total Core Deposits
20 2Q031Q042Q04 VARIATION 2Q031Q042Q Commercial %31% Corporate %(19%) Government810 1%1%23% TOTAL %5%17% Consumer %7%34% Loan Portfolio (Billions of Pesos) Q on Q Y on Y
21 2Q031Q042Q Q031Q042Q %36% 23310%47% 11212%93% Consumer %34% VARIATION Car loans Credit Cards Payroll loans %27% Mortgage Consumer and Mortgage Loan Portfolio (Billions of Pesos) Q on Q Y on Y
22 Number of New Loans CREDIT CARDSCAR LOANS MORTGAGE 43,620 53,887 1H031H04 24% 19,823 19,751 1H031H04 3,264 4,598 1H031H04 41% =
23 Loan Portfolio Corporate 38% Commercial 27% Government 9% Consumer 25% Corporate 19% Commercial 33% Government 13% Consumer 35% H04 Ps 66,000 Millions 14% Ps 75,000 Millions
24 BILLIONS OF DE PESOS LOAN PORTFOLIO IPAB / FOBAPROA % 71% 66% 59% 51% 2Q % 79% 29% 34% 41% 49% 52% Loan Portfolio
25 Fobaproa – IPAB Notes 1S´04 YIELD MATURITY BANCRECER 46TIIE + 40 pb BANCEN - BANPAIS 19TIIE + 85 pb BANORTE (FOBAPROA) 7CETES – 135 pb / TOTAL BILLIONS OF DE PESOS
26 Asset Quality Past Due Loans Loan Loss Reserves 1Q032Q033Q034Q032Q04 RESERVE COVERAGE 1Q Past Due Loan Ratio (exc. IPAB) 131% 127% 116% 128% 122% 1Q032Q033Q034Q032Q04 130% 1Q04 3.6% 5.6% 6.0% 5.0% 4.8% 1Q032Q033Q034Q032Q04 4.8% 1Q04 Loan Portfolio BILLIONS OF DE PESOS
27 Recovery Bank Net Income CONTRIBUTION TO GFNORTE’S NET INCOME 23% 32% 33% 29% H H MILLIONS OF PESOS
Q Recovery Banking Assets Under Management (Billions of Pesos at Face Value) Banorte risk (owned + auctions) Serfin Portfolio IPAB Portfolio (servicing)
29 Capitalization Ratio Tier 1 Tier 2 TOTAL 10.9% 2.4% 13.4% 1Q %11.4%10.5% 2.4% 2.2%5.0% 13.6%13.8%12.7%15.4% 2Q033Q034Q031Q % 3.8% 14.5% 2Q04
30 4. Long Term Savings Sector’s Results
31 Afore H04 BILLIONS OF PESOS H04 CUSTOMERS MILLIONS
GROSS WRITTEN PREMIUMS BILLIONS OF PESOS CUSTOMERS MILLIONS Insurance H H
33 Contribution to GFNorte’s Net Income H04 Afore 5.9% 6.2% 5.0% 4.4% Insurance 0.5% 2.0% 3.6% 3.0% Annuities (0.4%) 0.0% 1.3% 1.5% 9% 10% 8% 6% H04 … LONG TERM SAVINGS SECTOR
34 5. Economic Outlook
35 Economic Environment Mexico´s economy experienced higher growth during 1H04. - Aggregate demand is showing its best performance since Exports growth has detonated the industrial sector recovery. - Job creation continues to lag, but there are signs of improvement in the labor market. Macroeconomic fundamentals remain solid. - Public finances registered a surplus during 1H04, helped by the oil windfall. - Proactive debt management provides a shield as interest rates rise. - International reserves are at an all time high. - The current account deficit will represent 1.5% of GDP and it is being financed by long term flows of capital. Inflation expectations are deteriorating. - Monetary policy is expected to remain restrictive throughout Banxico has already increased the “corto” five times during the year. Political conditions remain complex. - Mexico´s City Mayor López Obrador, will face a probable impeachment process. Expect noise from this affair. - 9 remaining state elections of which 5 are for Governor. - Do not expect major reforms to be passed.
36 Macroeconomic Environment SOURCE: BANORTE’S BROKERAGE HOUSE AS OF AUGUST GDP1.3% Inflation3.98% 28 days Cete rate (End of the year)6.06% 28 days Cete rate (Average)6.22% Peso exchange rate (End of the year) % 4.35% 7.55% 6.65% % 3.84% 8.13% 7.87% 12.03
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