CLRTAP/EMEP/TFIAM Oslo, May 2002 INERIS/Guy Landrieu Remarks about Uncertainty Treatment _________________________________________________________ A large uncertainty about economic 2020 scenario… "Changing Unsustainable Patterns of Consumption and Production" Achieving a four-fold increase in energy and resource efficiency in developed countries in the next two or three decades and a possible ten-fold increase in resource efficiency in developed countries in the long term. Preparatory Committee for the World Summit on Sustainable Development, Second Session (Jan-Feb 2002), Report of the Secretary General

CLRTAP/EMEP/TFIAM Oslo, May 2002 INERIS/Guy Landrieu Remarks about Uncertainty Treatment _________________________________________________________ A large uncertainty about economic 2020 scenario… Tackling climate change Objectives and targets In line with the aim of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, to stabilise the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases at a level that will not cause unnatural variations of the earth climate… Scientists estimate that … global emissions of greenhouse gases need to be reduced by approximately 70% over 1990 in the longer term. Given the long-term objective, a global reduction in the order of 20-40% (depending on actual rates of economic growth and thus greenhouse gas emissions as well as the success of measures taken to combat climate change) over 1990 levels by 2020 will need to be aimed at, by means of an effective international agreement. Environment 2010 : Our future, our choice The sixth EU environment action programme Commission Communication (2001)

CLRTAP/EMEP/TFIAM Oslo, May 2002 INERIS/Guy Landrieu Remarks about Uncertainty Treatment _________________________________________________________ A large uncertainty about economic 2020 scenario… Factors 4 and 10 in the Nordic Countries "The studies conclude that it would be difficult to reach the factor 4 target in two to three decades and the factor 10 target in the long run (i. e. 2050) without considerable changes in individual and social values as well as regulatory regimes.” Study presented by the Nordic Council of Ministers at the 7th session of the Commission on Sustainable Development as a contribution to the implementation of the International Work Programme on Changing Consumption and Production Patterns.

CLRTAP/EMEP/TFIAM Oslo, May 2002 INERIS/Guy Landrieu Remarks about Uncertainty Treatment A large uncertainty about economic 2020 scenario… « Every epoch is an epoch of transition. We know only one thing about the future or, rather, the futures : it will not look like the present. » (Jorge Luis Borges) European Commission Forward Studies Unit Scenarios Europe 2010 Five possible futures For Europe Working Paper, July 1999 « The scenarios are entirely qualitative in nature. They present... coherent and contrasted illustrations given of how Europe may evolve in the future depending on the actions and decisions that are taken today. »

CLRTAP/EMEP/TFIAM Oslo, May 2002 INERIS/Guy Landrieu Remarks about Uncertainty Treatment A large uncertainty about economic 2020 scenario… Some reference documents European Commission Forward Studies Unit James Robertson The New Economics of Sustainable Development, A briefing for policy makers Luxembourg : Office for Official Publications of the European Communities,1998 The report questions the implications of a shift from income growth to cost reduction as a driving force in the economy.

CLRTAP/EMEP/TFIAM Oslo, May 2002 INERIS/Guy Landrieu Remarks about Uncertainty Treatment Uncertainty treatment… KISS Keep It Simple, Stupid ”(The concept of sustainable development) cannot be put into practice by a small group of experts and politicians… What is needed is a wide participatory approach from the society as a whole. Sustainable Development can only be truly effective when it is understood and accepted as a global concept…" Heinrich Böll Foundation From Rio to Johannesburg : contributions to the globalisation of sustainability World Summit Paper by Jürgen Trittin et al.

CLRTAP/EMEP/TFIAM Oslo, May 2002 INERIS/Guy Landrieu Remarks about Uncertainty Treatment To effectively protect and preserve the natural environment, environmental institutions, at all levels of governance, must better reflect the link between environmental problems and the underlying economic and social issues that most likely led to them… in an increasingly globalised economy, international environmental institutions must be able to address key social and economic issues that may not be included in their primary mandate… Much of the current context of international environmental governance, for which policy advice is needed, is one of uncertainty. Global environmental systems are characterised by non-linear, complex behaviour associated with cumulative environmental change with both short-term and long-term consequences. Under such circumstances, decision makers need information about the nature of threats, how each will be affected, as well as the types of arrangements that can be collectively developed to address such transboundary and global risks. …for consensus to be acceptable to leaders… when the knowledge is generated beyond a suspicion of policy bias by sponsors…" International Environmental Governance, The question of reform : key issues and proposals United Nations University, Preliminary Report (March 2002)

CLRTAP/EMEP/TFIAM Oslo, May 2002 INERIS/Guy Landrieu Remarks about Uncertainty Treatment Philippe Roqueplo, Climats sous surveillance : limites et conditions de l'expertise scientifique Ed. Economica, Paris, 1993 the word “uncertainty” may hide divergences between experts the progress of scientific knowledge needs discussions and controversies a consensus obligation may be counterproductive