National Severe Weather Services Dr. Russell Schneider NOAA-NWS Storm Prediction Center 20 June 2007 opportunities, enhancements & plans Briefing for NWS.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Storm Prediction Center Highlights NCEP Production Suite Review December 3, 2013 Steven Weiss, Israel Jirak, Chris Melick, Andy Dean, Patrick Marsh, and.

Advertisements

A Review of Some Significant Precipitation and Flood Events in Western Oklahoma Steve Kruckenberg National Weather Service Forecast Office – Norman, OK.

Local Storm Reports and Storm Prediction Center Products John Ferree NWS Severe Storms Services Leader Partner’s Meeting January 21, 2010 Atlanta, Georgia.

User Perspective: Using OSCER for a Real-Time Ensemble Forecasting Experiment…and other projects Currently: Jason J. Levit Research Meteorologist, Cooperative.

SPC Convective Outlook Changes Changes in Category Names/Definitions Bill Sammler Warning Coordination Meteorologist National Weather Service, Wakefield.

NWS Tornado Warning Program Tornado Warnings: How the National Weather Service Tracks and Warns The Public Congressional Hazards Caucus Alliance April.

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Mark Tew Chief, Marine and Coastal Weather Services Branch Office.

Round Two of Severe Storms to Impact the Ozarks Later Today National Weather Service Springfield, MO

National Weather Service – Newport/Morehead City NC NHC/WFO Tropical Products…and What’s New for 2012 WFO Newport Hurricane Awareness Seminar July 17,

NOAA’s National Weather Service Flooding and Severe Weather Potential National Weather Service - Springfield, Missouri The.

Use of TAMDAR Data in a Convective Weather Event Saturday, May 21, 2005.

NWS Jacksonville Web Tour visit us on the web at weather.gov/jax Severe Weatherweather.gov/jax/severe Tropical Weatherweather.gov/jax/tropical Marine Weatherweather.gov/jax/marine.

Your NOAA National Weather Service Forecast Office and Emergency Management: A Life Saving Partnership! National Severe Weather Workshop Midwest City,

NOAA’s National Weather Service Flood and Flash Flood Warning Program Michelle Schmidt Western Region Hydrology and Climate Services Division.

NWS Winter Weather Products & Media Coordination NWS Winter Weather Products & Media Coordination National Weather Service Des Moines, IA.

GOES-R Proving Ground Activities at the NWS Storm Prediction Center Dr. Russell S. Schneider Chief, Science Support Branch NWS Storm Prediction Center.

Mike Evans NWS / WFO BGM. CSTAR V – Severe convection in scenarios with low-predictive skill SUNY Albany researchers are examining SPC forecasts and associated.

NOAA’s National Weather Service IFP/NDFD Conceptual Overview Michael Tomlinson Office of Climate Water and Weather Services NWS Partners’ Workshop September.

National Weather Service Severe Weather Program VTEC and Watch By County Severe Weather Program VTEC and Watch By County Watch By County/VTEC Partners.

By John Metz Warning Coordination Meteorologist WFO Corpus Christi.

NWS Web Briefing March 1, 2010 National Weather Service Miami/South Florida Forecast Office.

Winter Weather Spotter Course National Weather Service Northern Indiana.

N ATIONAL W EATHER S ERVICE W EATHER ON THE W EB N ATIONAL W EATHER S ERVICE W EATHER ON THE W EB P AUL I ÑIGUEZ METEOROLOGIST NOAA / NWS / WFO PHOENIX,

Overview of the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Precipitation/Flash Flood Products/Services Michael Eckert

“Severe Weather” Severe weather exist in many forms: thunderstorms, tornado, hurricanes, and winter weather. Thunderstorms Tornado Hurricanes Winter Weather.

1 NWS Forecast Grids Served by an NNEW Web Coverage Service AIXM/WXXM Conference Steve Olson Meteorological Development Laboratory Office of Science and.

MDL Lightning-Based Products Kathryn Hughes NOAA/NWS/OST December 3, 2003

Tropical Weather Update August 31, CDT National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office Slidell, LA.

Weather Info –All information provided by the National Weather Service ( and the Storm Prediction Center (

Hazardous Weather Briefing 6 AM, December 30, 2012 National Weather Service Springfield, MO

NWS St. Louis Decision Support Workshop Watch, Warning, and Advisory Products and Criteria.

Weather Predicting Weather forecasting is a prediction of what the weather will be like in an hour, tomorrow, or next week. Weather forecasting involves.

NWS Nashville Weekly Outlook Briefing November 28, 2011.

Special Weather Briefing 1/28/2013 Bill Parker Warning Coordination Meteorologist National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana.

SPC Ensemble Applications: Current Status, Recent Developments, and Future Plans David Bright Storm Prediction Center Science Support Branch Norman, OK.

Science and Technology Infusion Plan For National Digital Forecast Database Science and Technology Infusion Plan For National Digital Forecast Database.

NOAA/NWS Digital Services 1 National Weather Service Forecast Evolution and Delivery in a Digital Era Glenn Austin / Mark Tew Office of Climate, Water,

NOAA/NWS Digital Services 1 National Weather Service Forecast Evolution and Delivery in a Digital Era Glenn Austin Office of Climate, Water, and Weather.

NOAA Hazardous Weather Test Bed (SPC, OUN, NSSL) Objectives – Advance the science of weather forecasting and prediction of severe convective weather –

Severe Hazards Analysis & Verification Experiment (SHAVE) Kevin Scharfenberg OU-CIMMS & NOAA-NSSL 2 nd Workshop on NWS Severe Weather Warning Technology.

SPC National Fire Weather Outlooks March 4, 2005 Dr. Phillip Bothwell.

40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.

National Weather Service Severe Weather Program VTEC and Watch By County Severe Weather Program VTEC and Watch By County National Severe Weather Workshop.

The 1925 Tri-State Tornado What If It Happened Today? Pat Spoden NOAA/NWS WFO Paducah, Kentucky John Hart NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman, Oklahoma.

40 th National Weather Association Annual Meeting Oklahoma City, OK October 20 th, 2015 Chris Melick 1,2, Patrick Marsh 1, Andy Dean 1, Israel L. Jirak.

© 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. F065-B Risk Management for TFM through Incremental Decision Making NBAA 61 ST Annual Meeting &

1 Storm Prediction Center Use of GPS IPW Data as an Input to Severe Weather Forecasting Steven Weiss NOAA GPS/GNSS Workshop October.

Weather Related Data Products for Emergency Management Practitioners Christina McCullough Indiana National Guard

Challenges in Urban Meteorology: A Forum for Users and Providers Regional Ecosystem Approaches to Urban Environmental Hazard Management September.

1 April 27-28, 2011 Southeast Tornado Outbreak April 27-28, 2011 ~190 tornadoes, ~311 fatalities Deadliest outbreak since March 21, 1932 Outlook issued.

Hazards, Vulnerability, and Mitigation Sub-Committee.

NOAA/NWS Digital Services 1 NWS Forecast Evolution and Delivery in a Digital Era Glenn Austin Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services David Ruth.

NWS Amarillo Website Severe Weather Possible this Afternoon and Tonight October 12, /28/2016 6:48 PM Please Press *6.

1 National Weather Service Response to Partner Issues Eli Jacks, Chief Fire and Public Weather Services Branch 1) Intended Use of “Tornado Emergency” 2)

November 22, 2015 Weather Update National Weather Service Spokane.

*Special Webinar* Severe Storms Likely This Afternoon through Early Wednesday Tuesday February 23, 2016 Please MUTE Your Lines! *6 to Mute #6 to Unmute.

Weather Briefing February 11, 2013 National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac, MI

Weather Briefing Noon - Sunday, June 3rd, 2012 National Weather Service Springfield, MO

2006 Partners Workshop Silver Spring, MD June 6, 2006 Timothy Schott.

CONFIDENCE GRIDS: A METHODOLOGY FOR EFFICIENT THREAT ASSESSMENT IN THE GFE ERA Jeffrey D. Fournier, Paul Duval, & Andrew I. Watson NOAA/National Weather.

For: East Tennessee, Southwest Virginia and far Southwest North Carolina When: Thursday Evening and Night Andrew Pritchett Valid: Thursday, March 31, 2016;

Greg Carbin, Warning Coordination Meteorologist NOAA/National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Workshop on Severe Convection and Climate – Int’l.

Hazardous Weather and Flooding Preparedness Unit 7: Activity.

 A usually brief, heavy storm that consists of rain, strong wind, lightning, and thunder.

Weather Briefing May 21, 2013 National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac, MI

Weather Briefing May 22, 2013 National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac, MI

Oh Buoy! Bryan A. Jackson LWX Marine Program Leader.

Situation Overview FEMA-4363-DR-IN

Types of Weather Events

Possible Major Severe WX Outbreak Today

Presentation transcript:

National Severe Weather Services Dr. Russell Schneider NOAA-NWS Storm Prediction Center 20 June 2007 opportunities, enhancements & plans Briefing for NWS Partners

Outline Product Refinement Watch Outline Update (WOU) frequency New Products & Service Improvements Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Upcoming Extended Range Product Enhancements GIS-friendly latitude-longitude “points” products NDFD compatible grids Standardized MD Headlines Watch Hazard Probabilities

Products should be consistent: National overview from SPC Local nuances from WFOs Watch Update Refinement WOU & WCN

Watch Update Refinement Option 1: Increase Frequency of Current WOU Product Option 2: Create New “Digital Services” Product with Continuous Updates (VTEC & UGC only) Option 3: Focus Efforts on Synchronization of Current Watch Update Process (Watch Status, WCN & WOU updates) Discussion and Suggestions Welcome !!!

Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Description: Line drawn for areas where there is at least a 30% probability for severe thunderstorms (equivalent to a high end slight risk threat). Issued daily with graphic & discussion. Issued: 0935 UTC 18 May 2007 valid: May 2007

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued: 0542 AM CDT Tue June 12, 2007 valid: June 2007 Description: Day 3-8 forecast of “critical” fire weather conditions including potential dry lightning busts. Issued daily with graphic & discussion

Planned Service Enhancements Day 3-8 Fire & Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlooks GIS friendly latitude-longitude “points” product NDFD compatible grids DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0424 AM CDT TUE JUN VALID TIME Z Z FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1... FIRE WEATHER CATEGORICAL... CRIT EXTM &&

Planned Service Enhancements Day 3-8 Fire & Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlooks GIS friendly latitude-longitude “points” product NDFD compatible grids DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0424 AM CDT TUE JUN VALID TIME Z Z FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1... FIRE WEATHER CATEGORICAL... CRIT EXTM && D4-5 D6

Do all Convective Watches have the same risk? No Watch Hazard Probabilities Tornado (2+ reports):80% EF2+ Tornado: 50% Wind (10+ reports):90% 75 mph Wind:40% Hail (10+ reports):95+% 2”+ Hail:70% Hail & Wind (6+ reports):95+% PDS Tornado Watch: 2006 Tennessee Outbreak

Watch Hazard Probability Product (WWP) Watch Hazard Probabilities Tornado (2+ reports):80% EF2+ Tornado: 50% Wind (10+ reports):90% 75 mph Wind:40% Hail (10+ reports):95+% 2”+ Hail:70% Hail & Wind (6+ reports):95+% Easily Decodable Text Product.. that includes hazards & other key watch attributes

Mesoscale Discussion Headers Standardized [Mesoscale Discussion Product Header Deleted] CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID Z Z [Text Deleted] Concerning Lat-Lon

Permitted MD Headers SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY(less than 30%) SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE (30-60%) SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY (60-90%) SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY (60-90%) SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY (60-90%) SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON (>90%) SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TORNADO WATCH HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK UPGRADE 01Z OUTLOOK UPDATE BLIZZARD HEAVY SNOW FREEZING RAIN WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION