Price Volatility: The Challenge for Long-Term Planning Mr. Robert Priddle Executive Director, IEA WEC 23 October 2001.

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Presentation transcript:

Price Volatility: The Challenge for Long-Term Planning Mr. Robert Priddle Executive Director, IEA WEC 23 October 2001

Final Statement from the 7th International Energy Forum in Riyadh, November 17-19, 2000: “Greater stability and transparency in the oil market to reduce price volatility is in the interests of producers and consumers.”

The Challenge of Price Volatility: Evidence of Price Volatility The Reasons The Effects Intervention to Curb Volatility

Volatility of Daily Dated Brent Prices, * The standard deviation measures how widely values are dispersed from the average. Here, we took the standard deviation of daily price changes for each month.

Day-Ahead Electricity Prices (California Power Exchange and CAISO)

US Spot Gas Price

Reasons for Greater Volatility: Uncertain supply reliability Capacity limitations Segmented markets Competitive pressures Flawed deregulation Imperfect attempts at market management Market speculation

OPEC Annual Oil Revenues High prices reduce demand, increase non-OPEC and unconventional oil production and lower OPEC annual revenues