Post-2012 Issues under the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol & Upcoming Issues for COP 12 and COP/MOP 2 ______________ ECBI Regional Workshops 2006 M.J. Mace FIELD London

2 Presentation Outline Framework Challenges Mitigation Challenge Political Challenges Process for Negotiation (AWG, Dialogue) Significant issues at UNFCCC COP 12 Significant issues at Kyoto COP/MOP 2

3 Post-2012 Framework Challenges Convention - aims to bring developed country GHG emissions back to 1990 levels toward stabilisation of concentrations Kyoto - aims to reduce overall developed country emissions by about 5% below 1990 levels over ‘first commitment period’ Kyoto anticipates ‘subsequent’ commitment periods, but does not specify duration or goal

4 Issues to be resolved What concentration level avoids dangerous climate change? (400?, 450? 500 ppm?) What overarching percent reduction in GHG emissions? Over what timeframe? How long should the second commitment period be? What types of commitments? How to apply the principle of ‘common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities’ to developing countries? How to address adaptation?

5 What is the role of the flexible mechanisms and sinks in the 2 nd CP? Should there be changes to the sectors and sources of emissions covered (e.g. international bunker fuels?) What role should non-Kyoto Parties play? (e.g., US, Australia) How can the Post-2012 climate regime draw in broader commitments from more countries? (e.g., China, India, Brazil) Should groups of developing countries be differentiated in a future framework? How?

6 Mitigation Challenges Clearly major reductions are needed –IPCC 1995: stabilisation of CO2 requires an immediate reduction of 50-70% and further reductions thereafter; –IPCC 2001: GHGs need to be reduced to ‘a very small fraction of current emissions’ Impacts of climate change already being seen. Yet emissions continue to trend upwards

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8 Selected Annex I Emission Trends

9 Annex I Emissions Percent change relative to 1990 levels (2003) EU -1.4% US +13.3% Canada +24.2%

10 Projected development of GHG emissions around the world Source: Presentation by Vildis Bisters, Ministry of Environment, Latvia, April 25, 2006, at workshop on ‘Scenarios and options for second commitment period, Baltic Perspective’

11 Political challenges Some developed country Convention Parties with major emissions have decided not to ratify Kyoto Protocol – and thus are not working within a target (US, Australia) Some developing countries that have ratified Kyoto do not have targets but have rapidly increasing emissions (e.g., China).

12 Developed countries with Kyoto targets – represented only 30% of total emissions in European Union –represented only 14% of emissions in Developing country emissions are increasing substantially –up 55% from 1990 – 2003 Vulnerable countries need to see global emission trends decrease in the short term to avoid dangerous climate change.

13 How to address this dynamic? Article 3.9 of the Kyoto Protocol required Parties with targets to begin discussion of the second commitment period no later than 7 years before the end of the first commitment period (2005). With some countries not active in Kyoto, another process had to be found for engaging these countries.

14 Two negotiating processes established to discussing future commitments Ad Hoc Open-ended Working Group (AWG) –Open to all Parties –Considers future commitments for Annex I Parties Dialogue on long-term cooperative action to address climate change by enhancing implementation of the Convention –Open to all Parties –Considers cooperative action to promote existing agreement under UNFCCC

15 1. Ad Hoc Working Group on Article 3.9 Tasked to consider further commitments for Annex I Parties beyond 2012 under the KP Aims to complete work as early as possible, to ensure no gap between first and second commitment periods Met for first time, May Discussed written submissions of Parties, oral statements Considered a process for its future work

16 AWG results to date: Chair has produced an indicative list of topics relevant to the AWG’s work 1.Scientific basis for determining level of ambition for further Annex I commitments –Scenarios for stabilising GHG concentrations (to guide KP’s role in contributing to ultimate objective of UNFCCC) –Adverse impacts; costs of impacts and adaptation –Other relevant scientific, technical and socio-economic information 2.Emissions trends, mitigation potential of Annex I Parties –Costs of impacts and adaptation –Socio-economic drivers, PAMs –Sectoral analyses and impacts on competitiveness

17 3.Experience gained in implementing the KP methodologies, LULUCF, PAMS, flex mechs, demonstrable progress 4.Architecture of further commitments for Annex I Parties Length of commitment period review of sectors and sources of emissions differentiation and burden sharing feasibility of measures to complement targets, e.g., sectoral approaches contribution of flexible mechanisms incentives for development, deployment of technology 5.Legal matters Scope of amendments to Annex B, elements of KP to be amended or supplemented to give effect to Annex B amendments Entry into force of amendments to Annex B, avoidance of gap.

18 AWG Future work Meets again November 2006 Will hold an in session workshop to allow presentation and exchange of relevant information - which could include: –Scientific basis for determining future commitments –Scenarios for stabilisation of atmospheric concentrations –Emission trends for Annex I Parties –Mitigation potential of policies an technologies in different national circumstances –Costs and benefits of emission reductions. IPCC will present at this event. See FCCC/KP/AWG/2006/L.2/Rev.1, (May 25, 2006) Parties to submit information on topics they wish to present at workshop to Secretariat by 1 September.

19 2. Dialogue on long-term cooperative action to enhance implementation of the Convention 4 workshops, first held May 15-16, 2006 Open-non-binding exchange of views To exchange experiences, discuss strategic approaches for long-term cooperative action on: (1) advancing development goals in a sustainable way; (2) addressing action on adaptation; (3) realising the full potential of technology; (4) realising the full potential of market-based opportunities. Informed by best available scientific information.

20 Dialogue is designed to: –identify actions to promote research, development and deployment of cleaner technologies; –identify ways to support voluntary actions by developing countries –Identify ways to promote access by developing countries to climate-friendly technologies and technologies for adaptation.

21 Dialogue results to date: First workshop May in Bonn, took the form of an initial exchange of views, followed by discussion of the four thematic areas Far ranging discussions, constructive atmosphere Recognised need for future sessions to have more focus A co-facilitators’ report will be produced by the end of August, which will present proposals on how to organise the next Dialogue The report will serve as an input to discussions at COP-12 and COP-13 Next Dialogue will likely be held in Nairobi in November.

22 Significant issues at UNFCCC COP 12 5 Year Work Programme on Adaptation –SBSTA to consider activities to be taken up to June 2008, based on draft negotiating text, and recommend a decision for adoption Technology Transfer –COP 12 will review the EGTT’s progress and EGTT’s terms of reference, and consider the status and continuation of EGTT

23 National Communications from Annex I Parties –SB 24 began review of Reports of Demonstrable Progress (RDPs) –Many reports were not submitted in a timely manner –Many do not demonstrate progress toward Kyoto targets –Negotiations continue Capacity Building –Negotiations resume on possible steps to regularly monitor capacity building activities

24 Avoided Deforestation –Workshop will take place 30 August to 1 September in Rome –SBSTA will continue consideration of scientific, technical, methodological issues, policy approaches and positive incentives in November 2006 –Second workshop will be held before SB 26 (May 2007)

25 Significant issues at Kyoto Protocol COP/MOP 2 Article 9 Review of the KP –Parties are to periodically review the KP in light of best available scientific information on climate change and its impacts, and take appropriate action –First review is to take place at COP/MOP 2 –Extent of review is unclear – could be fundamental –Views on how to carry out this review are to be submitted to the Secretariat by September 1

26 Adaptation Fund –Many unresolved issues –negotiations will continue on draft text (FCCC/SBI/2006/L.18) –Institutional issues (GEF or other body?) –Governance issues? –Eligibility criteria? –Priority areas/sectors? –How to ‘monetarize’ the share of the proceeds from the CDM –Questions presented to UNEP, UNDP, GEF on ability to handle Adaptation Fund, responses by COP 12

27 Carbon capture and storage (CCS) –CCS is the capture of CO2 emissions from industrial facilities, its compression into a liquid state, transport, and injection into geological storage sites, to avoid emissions to the atmosphere –Two workshops were held at SB-24 (May 2006) on CCS –CDM Executive Board has been requested to consider proposed new methodologies for CCS activities and make recommendations to COP/MOP on issues related to project boundary, leakage and permanence –COP/MOP-2 will consider workshop reports and CDM EB recommendations, with a view to a decision on how to consider CCS as CDM project activities (Decision 7/CMP.1)

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