Tanker supply until 2015 Platts Navigating Through Market Challenges by Manager Research and Projects Athens 26 October 2009

Tanker contracting bn $/ m dwt bn $ Source. Clarkson Shipyard Monitor m dwt Av average yearly $ average yearly dwt

Tanker fleet, orderbook, SH tankers 10,000 dwt m dwt m dwt A modern fleet: 1 Oct 2009 Average age 9.1 years 90% =<20 years old 79% =<15 years old 67% =<10 years old

Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out 10,000 – 59,999 dwt m dwt Assumed balanced market end 2008 Deliveries and orderbook based on Clarkson World Shipyard Monitor Fleet 1, m dwt Orderb “ 22% Not DH ” 20% % reduction demand

Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out Panamaxes 60,000 – 79,000 dwt m dwt Assumed balanced market end 2008 Deliveries and orderbook based on Clarkson World Shipyard Monitor Fleet m dwt Orderb “ 21% Not DH ” 14% % reduction demand

Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out Aframaxes 80,000 – 119,999 dwt m dwt Assumed balanced market end 2008 Deliveries and orderbook based on Clarkson World Shipyard Monitor Fleet m dwt Orderb “ 20% Not DH ” 8% % reduction demand

Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out Suezmaxes 120,000 – 199,999 dwt m dwt Assumed balanced market end 2008 Deliveries and orderbook based on Clarkson World Shipyard Monitor Fleet m dwt Orderb “ 36% Not DH ” 9% % reduction demand

Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out VLCCs 200,000 dwt + m dwt Assumed balanced market end 2008 Deliveries and orderbook based on Clarkson World Shipyard Monitor Fleet m dwt Orderb “ 38% Not DH ” 14% % reduction demand

Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out All tankers > 25,000 dwt m dwt Assumed balanced market end 2008 Deliveries and orderbook based on Clarkson World Shipyard Monitor Fleet m dwt Orderb “ 45% Not DH ” 12% % reduction demand

Conversions Some 34 m dwt SH tankers converted to dry, offshore and heavy lift, plus some 5 m dwt to double hull tankers m dwt There is a degree of uncertainty both regard to tonnage and in particular the timing of conversion

Development of single hull fleet (incl. DB/DS) m dwt Some 46 m SH tankers and 6 m DB/DS tankers

Tanker removals - phase out m dwt Year

Accumulated fleet increase based on deliveries, demolition, conversion and phase out m dwt Year

Investment in new tankers Some $ 219 billion invested since 2000 with the result that 97% of tanker fleet double hulled end 2010* *Assuming only DB/DS tankers continue to trade beyond 2010, some SH tanker will most probably continue until the age of 25 years old %

Oil import DH tankers Source: Fearnleys % number

Oil export DH tankers Source: Fearnleys % number

SH trading beyond 2010? –AustraliaNo –ChinaNo –EU No –Mexico No –Romania No –S KoreaNo –PhilippinesNo –UAENo no official note to IMO on – –Bahamas Yes – –Barbados Yes – –Liberia Yes – –Marshall Isl.Yes – –Panama FlagYes – –JapanYes – –Singapore Yes – –India Yes – –Hong Kong * Yes *20 years Flag/Port States positions MARPOL 20 Trading until the age of 25 years – –United States N/A OPA90

Tanker fleet development (Assumed max phase out, orderbook March 2009, include chemical tankers) Tanker fleet increase : 70% m dwt number

Need for new contracts assuming 4% increase in demand m dwt Assumptions: All SH out by 2010 (questionable) Balanced market end 2008 (some slack existed) Current orderbook 24 years life time DH tankers as from 2014/all older cleared by 2013 Ordering ranged between 11 and 80 m dwt per year (50 m dwt in 2008)

Need for new contracts assuming 4% increase in demand

Conclusion

A tanker surplus is building up unless demand is strong No need for additional tanker orders over the next of years