Electoral systems and party systems: Further thoughts

The Department of Political Science Presents Figuring out what's broke: Assessing the effects of ownership on political news content Dr. Kelly Blidook Department of Political Science Memorial University of Newfoundland Friday March 13, 2009 SN20332:30pm

Reminder Research paper outlines due in class on Tuesday, March 17 th Research paper outlines due in class on Tuesday, March 17 th These should contain: These should contain: A re-statement of the topic, including a thesis statement A re-statement of the topic, including a thesis statement The argument as you think it will develop, in point form The argument as you think it will develop, in point form Papers due Thursday, March 31 st Papers due Thursday, March 31 st

Why electoral systems matter Translating votes into seats in parliament, they influence Choices made available to voters Choices made available to voters Who & what kind of people are elected Who & what kind of people are elected Strategies chosen by Strategies chosen by Parties Parties Politically active or potentially Politically active or potentially Number & kind of parties represented Number & kind of parties represented Relative ease with which Relative ease with which Governments can be formed in parliamentary systems Governments can be formed in parliamentary systems Executives in presidential systems can find support for policies and programs Executives in presidential systems can find support for policies and programs

Electoral systems and party systems: Do electoral systems either determine the number of parties (stronger version) either determine the number of parties (stronger version)OR influence the number of parties (more muted, weaker version) influence the number of parties (more muted, weaker version) If so, in what way? If so, in what way?

Duverger’s law In its simplest form: Single member plurality (SMP) > two party system Single member plurality (SMP) > two party system PR > multiparty system PR > multiparty system But is it valid?

Possible solutions: Consider the argument: Consider the argument: Is it logically consistent? Is it logically consistent? Does it take into account the likely behaviour of parties and/or voters? Does it take into account the likely behaviour of parties and/or voters? Consider historical sequences: Consider historical sequences: which came first? which came first? Look at the data – look for correlations Look at the data – look for correlationsAnd….

Other factors Consider whether there are other factors which explain the number of parties Cleavage structure Cleavage structure District magnitude District magnitude Formal legal or effective thresholds Formal legal or effective thresholds

Some evidence There is a relationship between electoral laws and the number of political parties: Countries using plurality systems (SNP) have fewer parties Countries using plurality systems (SNP) have fewer parties Countries using majority systems (double ballot/runoff) have more parties Countries using majority systems (double ballot/runoff) have more parties Countries using PR have more still more Countries using PR have more still more

Some data Laakso & Taagepera’s effective number of parties Effective number of parties – a weighted measure, according greater importance to larger parties Effective number of parties – a weighted measure, according greater importance to larger parties ENEP = effective number of electoral parties (parties competing in elections) ENEP = effective number of electoral parties (parties competing in elections) ENPP = effective number of parliamentary parties (parties winning seats in the legislature) ENPP = effective number of parliamentary parties (parties winning seats in the legislature)

Electoral systems and the effective number of parliamentary parties Effective (weighted) number of parties plurality2.0 majority2.8 PR3.6

Some qualifications SNP can lead to multiparty competition: Canada as a case in point SNP can lead to multiparty competition: Canada as a case in point PR will not necessarily lead to an extensive number of parties, e.g. PR will not necessarily lead to an extensive number of parties, e.g. Austria Austria Spain Spain Greece GreeceAnd…

Germany 5% threshold does reduce the number of parties 5% threshold does reduce the number of parties FRG goes from 11 to 7 to 3 parties in parliament (1950s) 11 to 7 to 3 parties in parliament (1950s) 4 parties in parliament from parties in parliament from since them 5 since them

Italy: how to get it wrong Through 1992: PR in large districts > extended multipartyism Through 1992: PR in large districts > extended multipartyism Change to single member plurality for ¾ of the districts and PR for the remaining ¼ > Change to single member plurality for ¾ of the districts and PR for the remaining ¼ > More parties & clustered multipartyism: competition between two blocs More parties & clustered multipartyism: competition between two blocs ___________________________________Ulive (9 parties) Casa del Liberta (3 parties)

When do electoral systems matter? Impact of cleavage & cleavage structures Impact of cleavage & cleavage structures Impact of electoral loyalties: Impact of electoral loyalties: If, a large portion of the electorate is strongly attached to parties, then fewer votes available for newer parties or shifts in the party balance If, a large portion of the electorate is strongly attached to parties, then fewer votes available for newer parties or shifts in the party balance e.g. strong party identifications e.g. strong party identifications or electorates of belonging created by class or religious allegiance or electorates of belonging created by class or religious allegiance If voters weakly attached or disposed to switch, then new parties can emerge more readily If voters weakly attached or disposed to switch, then new parties can emerge more readily However, they may be able to do so under any electoral system However, they may be able to do so under any electoral system

Choosing an electoral system What do you want? Decisiveness – one party with a majority? Decisiveness – one party with a majority? Fairness or representativeness defined as Fairness or representativeness defined as A representative or representatives to whom you can go? A representative or representatives to whom you can go? Representation of major tendencies & shades of opinion? Representation of major tendencies & shades of opinion? Representation of all shades of opinion? Representation of all shades of opinion? ‘Stable’ government ‘Stable’ government Representation of certain groups – e.g. women? Representation of certain groups – e.g. women? But, you don’t always get what you want