Lecturers: Stefan Mulitza André Paul Michael Schulz Rüdiger Stein Climate change Lecturers: Stefan Mulitza André Paul Michael Schulz Rüdiger Stein

Climate change Climate Change I: Fundamentals Earth System Modeling The Role of High Latitude Oceans in Climate Change Students obtain a basic understanding of the physics of the climate system with special emphasis on high latitude processes. They become familiar with the mathematical and physical concepts underlying earth-system models and obtain programming and data-analysis skills (MATLAB).

Conceptual model of the climate system Ruddiman, p. 10: complexity of real climate system organized and simplified in a conceptual model engineer’s point of view: the climate system running as a machine Figure 1-5 (bottom) from Ruddiman (2001) Earth System Modeling 3

The modern ice-covered Arctic Ocean: marine productivity and sea-ice cover The Role of High Latitude Oceans in Climate Change

Climate change Climate Change II: Models and Data Abrupt Climate Changes Modeling Past and Future Climate Changes The students become familiar with the reconstructed climate variations for selected time intervals of the Cenozoic. They gain an understanding of the dynamics of abrupt climate changes and are enabled to assess the role of natural and anthropogenic climate variations in future climate change.

Why study abrupt climate change? it has repeatedly affected much or all of the Earth, locally with temperature changing by as much as 10 °C in 10 years evidence suggests it is not only possible but likely in the future, potentially with large impacts on ecosystems and societies its not well enough understood to be predicted research into causes, patterns, and likelihood of abrupt climate change can help reduce vulnerabilities and increase adaptive capabilities Abrupt Climate Changes Alley et al. (2003)

Strongest warming over land and at high latitudes Maps of CMIP5 multi-model mean results for the scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in 2081– 2100 of (a) annual mean surface temperature change, (b) average percent change in annual mean precipitation, (c) Northern Hemisphere September sea ice extent and (d) change in ocean surface pH. Changes in panels (a), (b) and (d) are shown relative to 1986–2005. The number of CMIP5 models used to calculate the multi-model mean is indicated in the upper right corner of each panel. For panels (a) and (b), hatching indicates regions where the multi-model mean is small compared to internal variability (i.e., less than one standard deviation of internal variability in 20-year means). Stippling indicates regions where the multi-model mean is large compared to internal variability (i.e., greater than two standard deviations of internal variability in 20-year means) and where 90% of models agree on the sign of change (see Box 12.1). In panel (c), the lines are the modelled means for 1986−2005; the filled areas are for the end of the century. The CMIP5 multi-model mean is given in white colour, the projected mean sea ice extent of a subset of models (number of models given in brackets) that most closely reproduce the climatological mean state and 1979‒2012 trend of the Arctic sea ice extent is given in light blue colour. For further technical details see the Technical Summary Supplementary Material. {Figures 6.28, 12.11, 12.22, and 12.29; Figures TS.15, TS.16, TS.17, and TS.20} stippling: mean change larger than internal variability + at least 90% of models agree on the sign of change ("small uncertainty") hatching: mean change less than internal variability ("large uncertainty") IPCC WG1 AR5, Figure SPM.8 Modeling Past and Future Climate Changes

Earth-system modeling Start: Friday, 17 October 2014, 8:30- 13:00, GEO 1490 Earth-system overview: Atmosphere, ocean and sea ice Introduction to MATLAB I André Paul (apaul@marum.de), Michael Schulz (mschulz@marum.de)

The role of high-latitude oceans in climate change Start: Friday, 19 December 2014, time to be announced, GEO 1490 Information on lectures, laboratory work at AWI, etc. Participation necessary! Rüdiger Stein (ruediger.stein@awi.de)

The role of high-latitude oceans in climate change Practical work in laboratory: one full day, 9:00-17:00 core description, smear-slide analysis, interpretation of data, etc.

Grading There will be one oral exam (one mark) for each module.

Picture: Richard Alley Hvalsey Church in the Western Settlement; in 1408 the last documentation was recorded here, a marriage Picture: Richard Alley Hvalsey Church in the Western Settlement, Greenland (abandoned in 1408)