1 Exploring the Concept of a Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) Jamie Rhome & Dan Brown National Hurricane Center Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference March 2007 Jamie Rhome & Dan Brown National Hurricane Center Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference March 2007

2 Motivation: Why Even Consider a Graphical TWO? Public prefers and is better able to interpret graphics versus text NWS products (Lindner et al, 2004). Public prefers and is better able to interpret graphics versus text NWS products (Lindner et al, 2004). comparison of a text-based and graphical wind advisory,comparison of a text-based and graphical wind advisory, 75% interpreted the graphic correctly as opposed to 12% who interpreted the text correctly75% interpreted the graphic correctly as opposed to 12% who interpreted the text correctly The public demand for visual NWS products is increasing The public demand for visual NWS products is increasing Morrow, 2005Morrow, 2005 Multiple surveys indicate that the general public struggles with geographic references (CNN, Roper, AP). Multiple surveys indicate that the general public struggles with geographic references (CNN, Roper, AP). < 50% polled could identify the states of NY or OH on a map.< 50% polled could identify the states of NY or OH on a map. despite wall-to-wall coverage of the damage from Hurricane Katrina, half of young Americans couldn’t locate Mississippi on a map (AP)despite wall-to-wall coverage of the damage from Hurricane Katrina, half of young Americans couldn’t locate Mississippi on a map (AP) Our users are creating their own Graphical TWO Our users are creating their own Graphical TWO Florida Division of Emergency ManagementFlorida Division of Emergency Management Public prefers and is better able to interpret graphics versus text NWS products (Lindner et al, 2004). Public prefers and is better able to interpret graphics versus text NWS products (Lindner et al, 2004). comparison of a text-based and graphical wind advisory,comparison of a text-based and graphical wind advisory, 75% interpreted the graphic correctly as opposed to 12% who interpreted the text correctly75% interpreted the graphic correctly as opposed to 12% who interpreted the text correctly The public demand for visual NWS products is increasing The public demand for visual NWS products is increasing Morrow, 2005Morrow, 2005 Multiple surveys indicate that the general public struggles with geographic references (CNN, Roper, AP). Multiple surveys indicate that the general public struggles with geographic references (CNN, Roper, AP). < 50% polled could identify the states of NY or OH on a map.< 50% polled could identify the states of NY or OH on a map. despite wall-to-wall coverage of the damage from Hurricane Katrina, half of young Americans couldn’t locate Mississippi on a map (AP)despite wall-to-wall coverage of the damage from Hurricane Katrina, half of young Americans couldn’t locate Mississippi on a map (AP) Our users are creating their own Graphical TWO Our users are creating their own Graphical TWO Florida Division of Emergency ManagementFlorida Division of Emergency Management

3 Florida Division of Emergency Management is currently creating their own version of a graphical TWO Florida Division of Emergency Management is currently creating their own version of a graphical TWO

4 Simple Design Simple Design A monochromatic graphic which highlights areas of concern/disturbances A monochromatic graphic which highlights areas of concern/disturbances Problem: A monochromatic graphic does not distinguish between areas based on their potential for genesisProblem: A monochromatic graphic does not distinguish between areas based on their potential for genesis Taking it a Step Further Taking it a Step Further A three-tiered (low, medium, high) color coded (yellow, orange, red) method to produce a message which is more consistent with the text TWO. A three-tiered (low, medium, high) color coded (yellow, orange, red) method to produce a message which is more consistent with the text TWO. Simple Design Simple Design A monochromatic graphic which highlights areas of concern/disturbances A monochromatic graphic which highlights areas of concern/disturbances Problem: A monochromatic graphic does not distinguish between areas based on their potential for genesisProblem: A monochromatic graphic does not distinguish between areas based on their potential for genesis Taking it a Step Further Taking it a Step Further A three-tiered (low, medium, high) color coded (yellow, orange, red) method to produce a message which is more consistent with the text TWO. A three-tiered (low, medium, high) color coded (yellow, orange, red) method to produce a message which is more consistent with the text TWO.

5 Three-tiered Color-coded TWO Low, medium or high chance of development was assigned to each system in every 2005 and 2006 TWO Low, medium or high chance of development was assigned to each system in every 2005 and 2006 TWO Forecasts were verified by best-track as to TC formation within 48 hours Forecasts were verified by best-track as to TC formation within 48 hours (NWS directive , “discusses areas of disturbed weather and the potential for tropical cyclone development during the next 48 hours“) (NWS directive , “discusses areas of disturbed weather and the potential for tropical cyclone development during the next 48 hours“) -Low = tropical cyclone formation not expected -Medium = some slow development possible -High = tropical depression (cyclone) could form tonight or next day -Low = tropical cyclone formation not expected -Medium = some slow development possible -High = tropical depression (cyclone) could form tonight or next day

6 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 530 AM EDT TUE AUG FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTEND FROM EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... AND INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. THIS ACTIVITY... WHICH IS POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 700 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND SPREADING TOWARD THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. UPPER LEVEL WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. FORECASTER XXXXX Medium High Yellow

7 # Develop # FCSTS PCT % % Total Low % East Pacific Atlantic # Develop # FCSTS PCT % % Total Med % # Develop # FCSTS PCT % % Total Med % # Develop # FCSTS PCT % % Total High % # Develop # FCSTS PCT % % Total High % High Forecasts Medium Forecasts Low Forecasts Three-tiered Verification # Develop # FCSTS PCT % % Total Low %

8 48 h- high POD- 40% 48 h- high POD- 40% 48 h- high & medium POD- 74% 48 h- high & medium POD- 74% 24 h- high POD- 59% 24 h- high POD- 59% 24 h- high & medium POD- 89% 24 h- high & medium POD- 89% 48 h- high POD- 40% 48 h- high POD- 40% 48 h- high & medium POD- 74% 48 h- high & medium POD- 74% 24 h- high POD- 59% 24 h- high POD- 59% 24 h- high & medium POD- 89% 24 h- high & medium POD- 89% 48 h- high POD- 48% 48 h- high POD- 48% 48 h- high & medium POD- 83% 48 h- high & medium POD- 83% 24 h- high POD- 73% 24 h- high POD- 73% 24 h- high & medium POD- 98% 24 h- high & medium POD- 98% 48 h- high POD- 48% 48 h- high POD- 48% 48 h- high & medium POD- 83% 48 h- high & medium POD- 83% 24 h- high POD- 73% 24 h- high POD- 73% 24 h- high & medium POD- 98% 24 h- high & medium POD- 98% East Pacific AtlanticAtlantic TWO POD

9 Example: Color Coded

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12 1). An area of low pressure located about 150 miles east-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina is moving slowly east-southeastward. Although the associated shower activity is not well-organized at this time…this system has some potential for development over the next day or so. 2). Cloudiness and disorganized showers extend northeastward from the vicinity of the windward passage into the Atlantic for a few hundred miles. Upper-level winds are forecast to remain unfavorable for development of this system. However…locally heavy rains can be expected over portions of eastern Cuba and Hispaniola during the next day or so. 3). The tropical wave located about 250 miles east of the leeward islands is moving west-northwestward at mph. Environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for tropical cyclone development. Locally heavy showers and strong gusty winds in squalls are likely over portions of the Lesser Antilles during the next day or two.

13 1). An area of low pressure located about 150 miles east-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina is moving slowly east-southeastward. Although the associated shower activity is not well-organized at this time…this system has some potential for development over the next day or so. 2). Cloudiness and disorganized showers extend northeastward from the vicinity of the windward passage into the Atlantic for a few hundred miles. Upper-level winds are forecast to remain unfavorable for development of this system. However…locally heavy rains can be expected over portions of eastern Cuba and Hispaniola during the next day or so. 3). The tropical wave located about 250 miles east of the leeward islands is moving west-northwestward at mph. Environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for tropical cyclone development. Locally heavy showers and strong gusty winds in squalls are likely over portions of the Lesser Antilles during the next day or two.

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15 TPC/NHC is currently exploring prospects of a graphical TWO includingTPC/NHC is currently exploring prospects of a graphical TWO including Working with NWS and other NOAA partners (ongoing) Working with NWS and other NOAA partners (ongoing) Soliciting input from emergency managers and media (ongoing) Soliciting input from emergency managers and media (ongoing) Evaluating the NWS experimental graphical hazardous weather outlook and EPA color-coded AQI (ongoing) Evaluating the NWS experimental graphical hazardous weather outlook and EPA color-coded AQI (ongoing) Prototypes using existing computing system are being presented for feedback and evaluation (ongoing)Prototypes using existing computing system are being presented for feedback and evaluation (ongoing) Monochromatic and color-coded approach are being considered (ongoing)Monochromatic and color-coded approach are being considered (ongoing) Initial in-house verification of past seasons indicate skill in clustering development potential into 3-tiers (low, medium, high) (complete)Initial in-house verification of past seasons indicate skill in clustering development potential into 3-tiers (low, medium, high) (complete) TPC/NHC is currently exploring prospects of a graphical TWO includingTPC/NHC is currently exploring prospects of a graphical TWO including Working with NWS and other NOAA partners (ongoing) Working with NWS and other NOAA partners (ongoing) Soliciting input from emergency managers and media (ongoing) Soliciting input from emergency managers and media (ongoing) Evaluating the NWS experimental graphical hazardous weather outlook and EPA color-coded AQI (ongoing) Evaluating the NWS experimental graphical hazardous weather outlook and EPA color-coded AQI (ongoing) Prototypes using existing computing system are being presented for feedback and evaluation (ongoing)Prototypes using existing computing system are being presented for feedback and evaluation (ongoing) Monochromatic and color-coded approach are being considered (ongoing)Monochromatic and color-coded approach are being considered (ongoing) Initial in-house verification of past seasons indicate skill in clustering development potential into 3-tiers (low, medium, high) (complete)Initial in-house verification of past seasons indicate skill in clustering development potential into 3-tiers (low, medium, high) (complete) Concluding Remarks

16 Comments Welcome! Jamie Rhome Jamie Rhome Jamie Rhome Jamie Rhome Dan Brown Dan Brown Dan Brown Dan Brown